Why is Anthony Rizzo such garbage in this?

[wolfslice]

Is there a rational explanation? His baseline stats are pretty good. Certainly better than dogshxt he's putting up year after year.

I'll take any answer other than the stock "ballpark factors."

I think I kind of hate Perfect Team. It's taken a little while to realize it, but I'm not having much fun.

[uschi_baerchen]

The answer is quite easy: Anthony Rizzo is garbage in PT. His WAR is about 25% under the average WAR. You should get rid of him. Good news: there are many better 1B (Goldsmith or - if you like it cheaper - Bagwell). More good news: you get 1000 PP for Rizzo.

[old timer]

While this isn't exactly the answer you may be looking for, you could try seeing see how other similar hitters are doing. For example, let's say you just wanted to focus on batting average, then you could go to "sortable stats" and filter on all hitters by looking at guys with contact ratings that are similar to his. This will give you some idea of how others with similar contact ratings did.

Or you could go further and find others with an overall offensive profile that's similar. For example, Francisco Lindor has very similar ratings: 64, 61, 69, 55, 61. If you can find enough players that are similar, you'll get an idea of just how much their performance can vary and you'll also get an idea on what to expect from someone with similar ratings.

Of course, this only gives you an idea of what to expect at your current league level and it's limited by how many similar hitters/pitchers you can find, but I've still found it helpful. Just looking at ratings and using that to tell how someone will do in PT with it's unusual collection of players (much higher rated players compared to a normal league) is not going to work too well.

[Morug]

I dont find his stats very bad, he was more bad than that when I try him in my club.

Paul Goldschmidt was not better than that in my club..to date Freddie Freeman is the best first base I got and is stats are very normal with .273 7 hr and 37 rbi in 330 AB. And I try a lot of first base.

I think its normal that batters generally underperformed in PT, because many clubs invest in pitching first and defence too...so that affect the performance of hitters in general.

[David Watts]

I can't quite figure PT out. I have Elvis Andrus on my team. Dudes average is steadily below .200. I think the highest his average has ever reached is .202. Denny McLain was on my team. I don't think he was ever a above .500 pitcher and if his era ever went below 5, I must have missed that day.

Okay this is my being dumb and lazy, but I was under the impression that player cards/players, never age or take talent hits. So, why does a guys performance change so drastically from one season to the next? I have a guys that put up good numbers one season, so I think he this is my guy. Next thing you know they can't hit their weight. Seeing the same thing with pitchers.

[mess]

I had Rizzo for a long time and he was just kind of mediocre.

Bought Votto and played him for a week with good results but then I opened a Record Breaker McGwire and couldn't not play him. He's been absolutely terrible but I still like him... haven't seen anyone use him before.

[BMW]

Most teams are filled with MVPs, Cy Young winners and Hall of Famers. The bench players are All-Stars. I wouldn't expect any player to put up stats as if they were facing the 2018 National League as a whole.

I'm sure you could find teams in your league where Rizzo wouldn't be able to crack the 25 man roster.

I have 1931 Lou Gehrig, and he's never even come close to his 1931 numbers because... most teams are filled with MVPs, Cy Young winners and Hall of Famers.

But he's made the All Star team three years straight because relatively speaking he's still very good within the context of this much harder competition.

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by David Watts

I can't quite figure PT out. I have Elvis Andrus on my team. Dudes average is steadily below .200. I think the highest his average has ever reached is .202. Denny McLain was on my team. I don't think he was ever a above .500 pitcher and if his era ever went below 5, I must have missed that day.

Okay this is my being dumb and lazy, but I was under the impression that player cards/players, never age or take talent hits. So, why does a guys performance change so drastically from one season to the next? I have a guys that put up good numbers one season, so I think he this is my guy. Next thing you know they can't hit their weight. Seeing the same thing with pitchers.

I have noticed the same thing. The fluctuations in performance seem huge.

[Threnodas]

We measure baseball stats to 3 significant digits, so we think of a .260 hitter as "definitely" better than a .250 hitter because, hey, 10 whole points. But probability tells us there will be much larger swings than that from season to season.

For the math, see my comment here: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...65#post4410665. But after 525 AB in a season, you can only be 95% confident that a truly .300 hitter will have a season batting average between .260 and .340. Or, after 519 AB in a season, you can only be 95% confident that a truly .250 hitter will have a season batting average between .212 and .288. Swings between seasons within that range, and occasionally outside of it, are mathematically unavoidable.

[Weaseltail]

Everything in PT is relative to the overall league. In the real world, Rizzo is a good 1B, but in a league populated with the best players in history, he's not.

As I understand it, PT establishes league totals for various stats (HR's, K's, etc.). These represent the total amount of that stat for the league. If the league HR total is set to 2,000, you would expect to see 2,000 HR's hit per season in the league.

That total is apportioned among all the hitters in the league based on their stats and a variety of other factors. So in your league, Rizzo is competing for his share of the "HR pie" with a lot of amazing hitters and almost no duds.

In the context of the league, he's a below-average hitter, not an All-Star. And his relative performance each year will likely deteriorate on average as teams add better hitters, pushing Rizzo further down the performance ladder (although there's a lot of randomness in every players yearly stats that could mask or exacerbate this).

Here's a link to a thread that explains the league total concept:

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boa...d.php?t=116716

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by BMW

Most teams are filled with MVPs, Cy Young winners and Hall of Famers. The bench players are All-Stars.

The screenshot shows bronze league...the competition is not really on that level yet. Rizzo should be good in bronze I would think


actually there is a Rizzo doing just fine in my diamond league...


OP is just unlucky

[the_mad_monk]

Why is Anthony Rizzo such garbage in this?

Simple. He can't even put his hat on straight for a photo.

[zrog2000]

This is even a bigger joke. Here's a card from a silver league. .215 slugging percentage? That's lower than the average pitcher.

With a 66 power rating, imagine what his ISO would be if it were 10? I'd guess he wouldn't hit the ball out of the infield.

[AirmenSmith]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

The screenshot shows bronze league...the competition is not really on that level yet.

Until we have leagues that real money isn't allowed in, this just can't be true.

[Threnodas]

In the screenshot, Rizzo has 107 AB. If he had just one more HR, say a fly ball that died on the track had gone three feet farther, his ISO would be .037 higher, or .093, and it wouldn't look weird at all. I think a lot of the comments in this and other similar threads come down to underestimating the insanity of small sample sizes, and underestimating how much worse a great player will play when competing against even greater players.

Edit: I ran the numbers for his .159 batting average, too. In 107 AB, the 95% confidence interval for a true .240 hitter's batting average is .159 to .321. So, this example of an awful Rizzo batting line could also just be the 2.5 percentile "worst case scenario" of a true .240 hitter. Is easy to overreact to ugly numbers, but we have to remember how easily some changes in fortune could make them look much different.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by AirmenSmith

Until we have leagues that real money isn't allowed in, this just can't be true.

Spending money is allowed in bronze, sure. But those players graduate in 1 week and OP has been there 4 straight weeks. Are you really saying there are so many whales entering bronze level every week such that the overall talent level is composed mostly of MVPs and hall of famers??

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

This is even a bigger joke. Here's a card from a silver league. .215 slugging percentage? That's lower than the average pitcher.

With a 66 power rating, imagine what his ISO would be if it were 10? I'd guess he wouldn't hit the ball out of the infield.

107 at bats is hardly a good example to point to. Here are Rizzo's slg pct in the various levels...

Bronze: .414 in 5630 at bats
Silver: .369 in 5215 at bats
Gold: .398 in 5556 at bats
Diamond: .381 in 1718 at bats

Not great, but not out of the realm of possibility given the increased quality of the opposition over what the real Rizzo has to face.

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by Threnodas

In the screenshot, Rizzo has 107 AB. If he had just one more HR, say a fly ball that died on the track had gone three feet farther, his ISO would be .037 higher, or .093, and it wouldn't look weird at all. I think a lot of the comments in this and other similar threads come down to underestimating the insanity of small sample sizes, and underestimating how much worse a great player will play when competing against even greater players.

The season before he slashed .195/.287/.299 in 515 PAs.

Someone with 63 contact, 53 gap, 66 power, 62 eye, and 63 avoid k's shouldn't have that slash line in a silver league.

In MLB, performances of top players do not vary by anywhere close to that much unless they are hurt (which cannot happen in PT) or they have permanently declined (which also cannot happen in PT). I totally get the sample size thing.

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

107 at bats is hardly a good example to point to. Here are Rizzo's slg pct in the various levels...

Bronze: .414 in 5630 at bats
Silver: .369 in 5215 at bats
Gold: .398 in 5556 at bats
Diamond: .381 in 1718 at bats

Not great, but not out of the realm of possibility given the increased quality of the opposition over what the real Rizzo has to face.

Then look at the full season results of the year before.

His career slugging percentage is .484. Is the quality of competition in MLB that much worse than the average bronze league?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Spending money is allowed in bronze, sure. But those players graduate in 1 week and OP has been there 4 straight weeks. Are you really saying there are so many whales entering bronze level every week such that the overall talent level is composed mostly of MVPs and hall of famers??

No, he just thought he saw the dead horse twitch and wanted to give it another good whack.