Is PT over/under emphasizing some stats

[|ChelseaNS]

Hey everyone, relatively new to PT, but got in for the first season. Now that we're in the second season it's probably time to start talking about how the engine, and or multiple copies of a card in a league are skewing ratings and stats.

Open for discussion, I'll start. So far it appears in my leagues that the power hitters with low K ratings are taking a real beating against the stacked pitching. Views? My feeling is that we as players are pushing the "stuff" and it's overpowering the sluggers.

I've got a 2000 Glaus with 0HR and 37 K in 95AB's and I just saw a 1998 record breaker McGwire with 0HR and 55K. No matter what you think about the era that doesn't seem right to me after a month and a half of the season.

[zrog2000]

My Steve Pearce is facing only LHP and is hitting .051 in 62 plate appearances with no extra base hits this season. Hopefully his .087 BABIP will rise. And this is in a bronze league that doesn't even have any perfects in the entire league so it's definitely not stacked.

[|ChelseaNS]

It will be interesting to see how the card database and multiple copies combined with what the PT owners emphasize shifts the stats, or makes certain ratings more important than others.

[EvvCat]

It's a single example, but my 1998 Mark McGwire (87 OVR) seems about right.

Season 1:
590 PA, .254/.375.525, 37 HR, 212 K, 92 BB
Season 2 so far:
194 PA, .248/.376/.534, 14 HR, 73 K, 33 BB

He'll probably lead the league in strike outs against PT-level pitching, but he's flat producing.

[Dxgarnett]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

My Steve Pearce is facing only LHP and is hitting .051 in 62 plate appearances with no extra base hits this season. Hopefully his .087 BABIP will rise. And this is in a bronze league that doesn't even have any perfects in the entire league so it's definitely not stacked.

That same card won a Silver Slugger in my bronze league that DID have 100 rated pitchers.

[Matt Arnold]

There's just a lot of randomness. For example, my Duke Snider Legend card with a 17 avoid Ks has struck out just over 1/2 of the time. Last year and this year he's at around 150 PA each, last year he had a .755 OPS (107 OPS+), this year has a .903 OPS (147 OPS+), and this year should be tougher given it's the Silver league. McGwire (Legend) has been the opposite - last year in 100 PA had a .912 OPS, this year .698.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by |ChelseaNS

Hey everyone, relatively new to PT, but got in for the first season. Now that we're in the second season it's probably time to start talking about how the engine, and or multiple copies of a card in a league are skewing ratings and stats.

Open for discussion, I'll start. So far it appears in my leagues that the power hitters with low K ratings are taking a real beating against the stacked pitching. Views? My feeling is that we as players are pushing the "stuff" and it's overpowering the sluggers.

I've got a 2000 Glaus with 0HR and 37 K in 95AB's and I just saw a 1998 record breaker McGwire with 0HR and 55K. No matter what you think about the era that doesn't seem right to me after a month and a half of the season.

I'm starting to feel rating (especially names) for cards don't really mean anything. On my team it doesn't really matter what rating are. It's way less accurate like the OOTP version of the game where you could kinda of depend/expect close to numbers as the previous years numbers. Batting averages for PT are becoming a joke & my interest is waning. If I'm gonna spend or just depend on a player...being close would be nice...Seems like making a lineup or starting a pitcher is pot luck. But not just my team. I'm seeing that across the league. You might get a few that look accurate but as a whole everything just looks off. I dunno...just not feeling it as much...Alright...my 2 cents


BB
Louisiana Crawdads

[noragar]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

I'm starting to feel rating (especially names) for cards don't really mean anything. On my team it doesn't really matter what rating are. It's way less accurate like the OOTP version of the game where you could kinda of depend/expect close to numbers as the previous years numbers. Batting averages for PT are becoming a joke & my interest is waning. If I'm gonna spend or just depend on a player...being close would be nice...Seems like making a lineup or starting a pitcher is pot luck. But not just my team. I'm seeing that across the league. You might get a few that look accurate but as a whole everything just looks off. I dunno...just not feeling it as much...Alright...my 2 cents


BB
Louisiana Crawdads

When you're playing every game against all star teams, everyone is going to underperform to some degree. Even in the Bronze league, nobody's using the 42 OVR cannon fodder cards that would be making up half the players in a replay league.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by noragar

When you're playing every game against all star teams, everyone is going to underperform to some degree. Even in the Bronze league, nobody's using the 42 OVR cannon fodder cards that would be making up half the players in a replay league.

So, which are going to under/over perform? Pitchers or Hitters? In my opinion going thru 2 seasons & a couple 2-3 Beta seasons Pitchers have the upper hand in PT. So any random card should do then? I dunno...something ain't right.....Being in a league where everyone knows who's going to win is getting to be less fun....You can look at roster of pitchers & pick out who will win. When I start a series with a team I can nearly 100% of time pick who's going to win the series by looking at their player ratings.1 team has so many HOF pitchers he's using Randy Johnson as closer because he is the weakest on the staff....They gonna win...did last last...will again this year. I won't follow that team into the league he's in next year..



I dunno....this wide open grab as many HOFers as you can is & will burn many people out. A 80+ rated player is no match for the 90's & 100's....period

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

So, which are going to under/over perform? Pitchers or Hitters? In my opinion going thru 2 seasons & a couple 2-3 Beta seasons Pitchers have the upper hand in PT. So any random card should do then? I dunno...something ain't right.....Being in a league where everyone knows who's going to win is getting to be less fun....You can look at roster of pitchers & pick out who will win. When I start a series with a team I can nearly 100% of time pick who's going to win the series by looking at their player ratings.1 team has so many HOF pitchers he's using Randy Johnson as closer because he is the weakest on the staff....They gonna win...did last last...will again this year. I won't follow that team into the league he's in next year..



I dunno....this wide open grab as many HOFers as you can is & will burn many people out. A 80+ rated player is no match for the 90's & 100's....period

But this is baseball, anything can happen in a short series. I won the WS last week with not a single perfect or diamond player.


Plus, the whales will keep getting promoted until they are in a league by themselves. In a few weeks it will be very different.

[max venerabel]

I think what we are seeing is skewed by owner tendencies. Auction House prices, rarity of certain types of players and player interest in certain attributes over others is making a particular style of play prevalent in the leagues so far. In some cases, that will work for a particular card and make them perform better than expected. In other cases, it will work against them.

Essentially, PT is its own "era" -- think dead ball, lively ball, high mound '60s, steroid era, launch angle era, etc.

[Dogberry99]

I'm not particularly concerned by players over or under performing. I like that the opposition matters as much as the players themselves. My rising concern is with the surprisingly large variation we're sometimes seeing between identical cards in the same league. Even then though, this could be more about sample size rather than statistically significant deviations.

My hope is that with enough time, I will be able to estimate reasonable floor and ceiling expectations for my players based on their ratings that I will be able to use to help further evaluate their worth and production. If the random variation is so large as to make this impossible even with a ridiculous amount of data points, I will be disappointed.

[max venerabel]

I've been learning to adjust a little to that. Keep a decent stock of reserves around, rather than just selling everyone apart from your 25. If you seem to have hit a poor dice roll, or perhaps actually the competition you are facing is making certain players under perform, swap him out for another player. See what happens for 14 days.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

But this is baseball, anything can happen in a short series. I won the WS last week with not a single perfect or diamond player.


Plus, the whales will keep getting promoted until they are in a league by themselves. In a few weeks it will be very different.

Not Quite. I'm in a league for 2nd year where a team has 7 100 rated, 12 90+ rated, the rest 80+


I have 3 90+ rated & have no chance against that team. He has sweep me every series since 1st league. It was really fun. In the 1st season he had Randy Johnson closing but now I seen where several of his players are locked into positions. I dunno if the player did it or Markus & team, but it's greatly appreciated. Why that team still in bronze is a joke...I got my 3 90's in bought packs, not in AH...Anyway....the game has changed for me as it stands. Same teams beating/losing to the same teams over & over 30 HR players hitting 9-10 a year. .320 hitters batting .245 or lower...Had Lou Brock card where he stole 118 in the card year, went 7 steals & 9 caught throughout year. Rating Don't Matter....Out to the curb because he's useless. why even try to upgrade your team when rating don't matter?

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by max venerabel

I've been learning to adjust a little to that. Keep a decent stock of reserves around, rather than just selling everyone apart from your 25. If you seem to have hit a poor dice roll, or perhaps actually the competition you are facing is making certain players under perform, swap him out for another player. See what happens for 14 days.

2 years in a row bad dice rolls....nah...Ratings don't matter. Been through all that card swapping......that was laughable

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Not Quite. I'm in a league for 2nd year where a team has 7 100 rated, 12 90+ rated, the rest 80+

I have 3 90+ rated & have no chance against that team.

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Had Lou Brock card where he stole 118 in the card year, went 7 steals & 9 caught throughout year. Rating Don't Matter....Out to the curb because he's useless. why even try to upgrade your team when rating don't matter?

Well, which is it? Do ratings matter or not?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Had Lou Brock card where he stole 118 in the card year, went 7 steals & 9 caught throughout year. Rating Don't Matter....Out to the curb because he's useless. why even try to upgrade your team when rating don't matter?

Same card here, stole 60 for me last season.

[|ChelseaNS]

THIS! That's why I started the thread. I really believe that owner tendencies combined with card frequencies is generally creating a new value on the card. I'm interested to see how it plays in 7-9 seasons. So far the sluggers are paying the price as far as I can see.

[|ChelseaNS]

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

I'm not particularly concerned by players over or under performing. I like that the opposition matters as much as the players themselves. My rising concern is with the surprisingly large variation we're sometimes seeing between identical cards in the same league. Even then though, this could be more about sample size rather than statistically significant deviations.

My hope is that with enough time, I will be able to estimate reasonable floor and ceiling expectations for my players based on their ratings that I will be able to use to help further evaluate their worth and production. If the random variation is so large as to make this impossible even with a ridiculous amount of data points, I will be disappointed.

I wonder if there is a high enough variation to throw off numbers junkies, because of the inconsistency, or if how us as owners field teams skews the ratings but we will figure it out and cut the variations after 7-9 seasons??

[Clavette]

Your team plan matters most. Then ratings for each individual slot. You cant just stuff golds and diamonds in your roster and continue to win against teams that are closely rated.

In beta I had 1 p2p and 2 f2p teams. My best was a f2p mixed gold/silver/few bronze team. Could not believe how well they did.

My current p2p team that I've sold off a lot of my "better" pulls to fill needs in my team has paid off very well. Won the world series in bronze and is playing pretty well with a 5 game lead currently. A 4/5 diamond rotation does help but verlander had an 8.13 era going into June.

My Matty Alou and the silvers team is performing phenomenally this season in silver. Currently 1.5 up in a competitive division. I've slowly added role players and upgrades where needed and where I can find them without going over 79

You cant jam a square peg in a round hole