Have you seen?

NoOne · 10-05-2018, 12:10 AM

so, i've seen bad years, but this is hilariously bad, relatively speaking.

have you ever seen this type of discrepancy? i kept waiting for the 'rebound' and it never occured... i didn't move him from 4th to bottom third until the last two months or so. i mean a dip to .480 slugging wouldn't make me blink, but this is a god-awful year for sure.

2130 something was broken for sure. lol

Silfir · 10-05-2018, 09:39 AM

It does look like your guy is rebounding admirably - just not in the same year.

In OOTP 18 I had an elite outfielder who at one time randomly posted an abysmal season - like -0.6 WAR, barely getting over .600 OPS, even though he was well over .900 over like ten years before that, and for two years after.

When he managed to play, that is. The same guy typically spent most of his time on the DL. He was still worth having on the roster simply because of how good he was when he was healthy. Your guy obviously doesn't have injury issues.

In OOTP19, there's this guy. Signed as an international free agent on a minor league contract. My scouts always felt he was overachieving (with Overall exceeding Potential by quite a lot), so I traded him mid-1806. Haven't regretted it since, but maybe he'll rebound the way your guy is doing now.

NoOne · 10-05-2018, 04:27 PM

yeah, i've seen bad year not caused by injury before. more often with a reliever for obvious reasons, but still others often too. the slugging drop was crazy. nothing but bad luck all year... started off bad... july, still bad... august still bad... dropped his butt to 7th or 8th in lineup.. i almost never react to temporary statistical drops.

he hit for a higher average but same low power in playoffs too. if you account for the higher BA, it's a similar slugging%. i usually bump guys back up, if dropped, for playoffs to their original spot. this guy's season was so abysmal i didn't bother. 1 good choice that season about him.

Drstrangelove · 10-09-2018, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

yeah, i've seen bad year not caused by injury before. more often with a reliever for obvious reasons, but still others often too. the slugging drop was crazy. nothing but bad luck all year... started off bad... july, still bad... august still bad... dropped his butt to 7th or 8th in lineup.. i almost never react to temporary statistical drops.

he hit for a higher average but same low power in playoffs too. if you account for the higher BA, it's a similar slugging%. i usually bump guys back up, if dropped, for playoffs to their original spot. this guy's season was so abysmal i didn't bother. 1 good choice that season about him.

Reminds me of Hornsby 1925-26, Williams 1958-59 (lower back pain), McCovey 1963-64. Huge drops (and enormous recoveries) like that seem to be possible only with truly great hitters who then have something personal or medical that lets them play but with reduced performance. "Lesser" mortals would be benched or sent down, perhaps never to return, since losing 60-80 points off your OPS+ would normally mean you shouldn't be playing MLB.

NoOne · 10-10-2018, 12:59 AM

i agree... nagging dtd could easily do that and expect that stuff to happen. i can't find a cause with this guy. it's like a dtd %-off was applied season long.

still hit .290... just a matter of a power loss due to really bad luck i guess? the only other thing out of whack is a few more SO. not enough to make up for a loss of ~.150 slugging though.

it's crazy how consistent this guy is, otherwise.. 2132 is another 160+ ops year too.

i really think ther's some under-the-hood value that affects player's volatilty... i.e. a guy may be more consistent but will never hit huge HR numbers', while another with same average will be more likely to peak and valley in and given year.

beyond just luck of the dice, otherwise. some guys are machines, and others are all over the place.

Silfir · 10-10-2018, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

some guys are machines, and others are all over the place.

Well, there's a bit of survivorship bias at work here, too, I would imagine. The guys we remember as utterly consistent could have conceivably had bad seasons as well, with the right set of injuries, mental hang-ups, unexpected family tragedies, run-ins with drug addiction and so on. They just didn't, so we remember them as baseballing machine-gods.

Internally I don't think OOTP considers any player's relationship of ratings to stats to be sacrosanct; there is, and ought to be, a potential for any player to play poorly for stretches of time - and by extension, better than they're supposed to. Where would the fun be otherwise?

TGH-Adfabre · 10-10-2018, 02:26 PM

Made me think of Harper.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arpebr03.shtml

He lost 0.087 from his average and 0.087 form his OBP from 2015-2016. He then jumped 0.076 AVG and 0.040 OBP from 2016-2017.
He then has a 0.070 drop in AVG this season.

NoOne · 10-10-2018, 03:14 PM

on the consistent front -- only speaking of ootp, not real life... machines in ootp are more machine-like than real life *with health. not biased and only based on their production year-to-year.

even so each thing mentioned isn't relevant to the example above -- no dtd injuries or in-game cause that can be seen by the user.. i agree with all of those causes in RL, of course.. but in game we know when those things are occurring.

seriously, this guy is ~160ops+ every year in ootp... then one clunker, lol.. no bias here while reading numbers. i don't have emotional attachment to pixels. (that's a bit of a lie). if you can find that example in real life that doesn't invovle an injury, great personal distress or age, i'd be surprised.. it'd only be handful of people after 100+ years and difficult to find. (only relates to superstars that can be consistent.. lots of players ahve peak years and mostly clunkers otherwise... not part of the orginal conversation, though)

----

while i did at one time have illusions of granduer about certain players from childhood, i really don't fall prey to that kind of mistake. i'm too old to have an excuse not to have learned that lesson already. i would never assume anything without the data supporting it.

take harper as an example... popular, media calls him a superstar etc.. general perception is that... i totally disagree based on his historic numbers (good but not a superstar). he's 2 for 7? in years that qualify for such reverance... injuries? maybe, i don't follow washington. i'd look into that before making a final judgement, but i wouldn't rely on popular thought... the peanut gallery reads at a 3rd grade level, ffs..

wildly volatile BA and power. consitently misses games... not good. not worth 30m.year ever. steroids? they make you injury prone and brittle. he has to put up some good years without injuries before i agree he's anything special. and, he comes with ah high price tag, regardless, which further diminishes his value to me. overpriced talent so far.

in ootp i always try to get him, if available.. in the game he is awesome for sure. (unless drastic change in '19 from '18).. don't care if they are wrong, i want a monster RF, lol.

compare him to trout.. a real superstar, and you see the difference in consistency. even if injury-related, harper simply cannot stay on the field and that is equally important to being considered great. his numbers are a mess too.

facts not feelings dictate how i think, i promise.

(sorry tgh, it was open in browser and used as example, lol. if a washington or harper fan, no hard feelings - just showing that i don't rely on feelings, not an about what you wrote)

an equivalent would IF pujols put up a clunker while in St, Louis, which he didn't. even in the final year playing with plantar fasciitus or something wrong with his foot.

10-05-2018, 12:10 AM	#1
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	Have you seen? so, i've seen bad years, but this is hilariously bad, relatively speaking. have you ever seen this type of discrepancy? i kept waiting for the 'rebound' and it never occured... i didn't move him from 4th to bottom third until the last two months or so. i mean a dip to .480 slugging wouldn't make me blink, but this is a god-awful year for sure. 2130 something was broken for sure. lol Attached Images

10-05-2018, 09:39 AM	#2
Silfir Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 137	It does look like your guy is rebounding admirably - just not in the same year. In OOTP 18 I had an elite outfielder who at one time randomly posted an abysmal season - like -0.6 WAR, barely getting over .600 OPS, even though he was well over .900 over like ten years before that, and for two years after. When he managed to play, that is. The same guy typically spent most of his time on the DL. He was still worth having on the roster simply because of how good he was when he was healthy. Your guy obviously doesn't have injury issues. In OOTP19, there's this guy. Signed as an international free agent on a minor league contract. My scouts always felt he was overachieving (with Overall exceeding Potential by quite a lot), so I traded him mid-1806. Haven't regretted it since, but maybe he'll rebound the way your guy is doing now. Attached Images Last edited by Silfir; 10-05-2018 at 09:44 AM.

10-10-2018, 02:26 PM	#7
TGH-Adfabre Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,601	Made me think of Harper. https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arpebr03.shtml He lost 0.087 from his average and 0.087 form his OBP from 2015-2016. He then jumped 0.076 AVG and 0.040 OBP from 2016-2017. He then has a 0.070 drop in AVG this season. __________________ You mock me, therefore I am My wife

10-10-2018, 03:14 PM	#8
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	on the consistent front -- only speaking of ootp, not real life... machines in ootp are more machine-like than real life with health. not biased and only based on their production year-to-year. even so each thing mentioned isn't relevant to the example above -- no dtd injuries or in-game cause that can be seen by the user.. i agree with all of those causes in RL, of course.. but in game we know when those things are occurring. seriously, this guy is ~160ops+ every year in ootp... then one clunker, lol.. no bias here while reading numbers. i don't have emotional attachment to pixels. (that's a bit of a lie). if you can find that example in real life that doesn't invovle an injury, great personal distress or age, i'd be surprised.. it'd only be handful of people after 100+ years and difficult to find. (only relates to superstars that can be consistent.. lots of players ahve peak years and mostly clunkers otherwise... not part of the orginal conversation, though) ---- while i did at one time have illusions of granduer about certain players from childhood, i really don't fall prey to that kind of mistake. i'm too old to have an excuse not to have learned that lesson already. i would never assume anything without the data supporting it. take harper as an example... popular, media calls him a superstar etc.. general perception is that... i totally disagree based on his historic numbers (good but not a superstar). he's 2 for 7? in years that qualify for such reverance... injuries? maybe, i don't follow washington. i'd look into that before making a final judgement, but i wouldn't rely on popular thought... the peanut gallery reads at a 3rd grade level, ffs.. wildly volatile BA and power. consitently misses games... not good. not worth 30m.year ever. steroids? they make you injury prone and brittle. he has to put up some good years without injuries before i agree he's anything special. and, he comes with ah high price tag, regardless, which further diminishes his value to me. overpriced talent so far. in ootp i always try to get him, if available.. in the game he is awesome for sure. (unless drastic change in '19 from '18).. don't care if they are wrong, i want a monster RF, lol. compare him to trout.. a real superstar, and you see the difference in consistency. even if injury-related, harper simply cannot stay on the field and that is equally important to being considered great. his numbers are a mess too. facts not feelings dictate how i think, i promise. (sorry tgh, it was open in browser and used as example, lol. if a washington or harper fan, no hard feelings - just showing that i don't rely on feelings, not an about what you wrote) an equivalent would IF pujols put up a clunker while in St, Louis, which he didn't. even in the final year playing with plantar fasciitus or something wrong with his foot. Last edited by NoOne; 10-10-2018 at 03:22 PM.*

10-05-2018, 04:27 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	yeah, i've seen bad year not caused by injury before. more often with a reliever for obvious reasons, but still others often too. the slugging drop was crazy. nothing but bad luck all year... started off bad... july, still bad... august still bad... dropped his butt to 7th or 8th in lineup.. i almost never react to temporary statistical drops. he hit for a higher average but same low power in playoffs too. if you account for the higher BA, it's a similar slugging%. i usually bump guys back up, if dropped, for playoffs to their original spot. this guy's season was so abysmal i didn't bother. 1 good choice that season about him.

10-10-2018, 12:59 AM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i agree... nagging dtd could easily do that and expect that stuff to happen. i can't find a cause with this guy. it's like a dtd %-off was applied season long. still hit .290... just a matter of a power loss due to really bad luck i guess? the only other thing out of whack is a few more SO. not enough to make up for a loss of ~.150 slugging though. it's crazy how consistent this guy is, otherwise.. 2132 is another 160+ ops year too. i really think ther's some under-the-hood value that affects player's volatilty... i.e. a guy may be more consistent but will never hit huge HR numbers', while another with same average will be more likely to peak and valley in and given year. beyond just luck of the dice, otherwise. some guys are machines, and others are all over the place.