Resigning young guys

tcoots423 · 07-21-2018, 01:02 AM

Just wondering what you guys do as far as locking up guys that are in arbitration still aka first 6 years of service time. If you know he's a for sure thing and want him long term for cheaper you sign him long term earlier correct? For instance I have Ronald Acuna and after 3 years(1 ROY, 2 All Stars) he's turned into a star of course so when he's gonna get 12 Mill in arbitration I offer a long term deal and ended up signing him for 6 years at 7,9,11,13,17,17. Is this good? What do you guys do?

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jimmysthebestcop · 07-21-2018, 01:17 AM

A lot depends on your budget and financials etc. My 1 file sometimes I knew a guy was a sure thing while in AAA and I would sign him to a 7-10 year deal before promoting him the 40 man. Usually the contract is heavily in the teams favor. Or at least less then what arbitration would cost. Think Phillies and Kingery this past offseason.

Your deal is probably great. If he puts up those numbers his 1st year of arbitration the 2nd year it could jump to 15+ million. The better they do the more money they get especially if they win arbitration it could be 20 mil.

My current file I can basically afford 1 contract over double digits. Once I get several players over 5 million its time to start trading them. So poor. Had Oakland's owner sell the team immediately cut budget to 30th place. And he wants 25 million positive balance as a goal.

If you think the kid is a no brainer bat or arm and he is young enough for a long term deal then its probably better to sign him up if your team has the financials to do it. Add the last year as a team option with a buyout. IF you have to trade him near end of contract even if you eat some money you aren't on the hook for team options just player options.

tcoots423 · 07-21-2018, 01:43 AM

Thanks. I'm playing of course at Atlanta.. started out with about 90 mill to spend and after 3 good seasons (2 nlcs appearances, 1 world series appearance) I'm up to 140 for salaries.. not bad but still only 12th in the league... Not like I'm in a big market..

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r0nster · 07-21-2018, 10:13 AM

I sign young guys long term I go one year arbitration if they wont do it (most wont) then I try next season if they not greedy sometimes I get lucky at the 2nd time around I might get 3 to 5 seasons but if I wait till last year of arbitration it seems they are willing 50-50% of the time to go long term. I think that's where the greed and loyality comes into play

NoOne · 07-21-2018, 10:57 AM

if it's a 'deal' for that quality of player, you should jump on it. assuming no financial problems. the more difficult it is to fill that role, the more interested you should be in keeping them on the cheap.

--- more general / theoretical

not sure on financial environment. 30-35 is a max contract in my leagues and the players most likely to be an all-star are all 18-35M-ish. things should be relative, that should help translate things.

relative to makret size -- upto you to learn how much you can afford at any one time. understand bare-bones cost of bench and other filler you are willing to live with and make sure to leave at least that much when stretching budget for "1 more" bigger contract. if it doesn't fit, don't try to bend reality and just let them go.

--age is a big factor for me, in addition to things mentioned in above posts. i don't want them signed throug too old of an age even if i intend to trade before those last 1-3 years. if greater return than compensation pick, it is much easier to trade them. if comp pick is greater value, then i'm more concerned about length of contract matching time of need.

--type of hitter is key - slugger or obp role on my team. i won't pay 'max' for an obp guy unless he's god. i keep 2 solid obp guys, in case of injury and as many sluggers as i can afford. availability and budget influence what that looks like over time.

--stock on farm. even if it's a deal, if i have a near equivalent or better coming i will go the cheaper route. if a little worse, that extra money re-invested elswhere more efficiently will return more wins overall.

--ease of replacing. a 1B demanding more than i want to pay is more likely to be traded than a SS demanding a bit extra. i'll probably see something comparable and cheaper/ more flexible contract length stopgap in FA at 1B.

i typically only extend players that offer some sort of deal on price -- and not just due to buying arb years. the closer you get to their last arbitration year, the more likely and more closely their demand will resemble a FA's demand. ie higher in price. if you can recognize when the price is high relative to quality of player, it's almost always better to let them hit FA and hope the market brings his demand down to a reasonable level.

personality and ?other? factors are definitely creating a spectrum of results on this. take what's offered and don't overspend. the 1-2 extra losses you have in short-term of any difficult loss wil be more than recovered as you more wisely spend that money. if that opportunity doesn't come this year, be patient.

that's easy for me to do, because outside of a few rare exceptions, any player that is expected to start on my team isn't older than ~32 and is fairly well spread out so that i can somewhat control the loss of talent over time. the more you deviate from that the more likely you get forced into decisions regarding players/payroll. forced decisions leave it all to luck, and that's not good.

Timofmars · 07-21-2018, 02:25 PM

Sometimes when I have a pretty good prospect, but I know I have a lot more pretty good prospects developing that can be used in a package deal to get an elite player that's better than the original prospect, I won't sign the original to a long term deal. In that case, I'm mostly trying to keep the near-term costs low, because I think maybe the AI might see it as more attractive in a deal. I also want them to have to deal with high salaries later on, I don't want to give them a great long term deal, haha.

But for a true top talent prospect, I'll keep them off a major league contract as long as possible, but then once I need to add them to the 40-man, I will try to sign them to a long term deal right from the start, for a 10 year deal even. They seem to always be willing if you offer enough. I'm not playing now, so I can't see the numbers exactly. But I think my 77 rated pitcher is signed for an average of 7 or 8 million a year for 10 years.

NoOne · 07-21-2018, 08:57 PM

they definitely value club-controlled players more (*with some talent of course) and younger in general too.

i've never tried the 10year option while in minors... if the math adds up to cheaper it's a viable route with a bit of risk of they don't finish development. it's easy to learn the arbitration values per player results and talent. easy math. just need to learn threshold of what is ~low ~normal ~high cost per talent relative to FA market.

with experience these questions become clockwork. context dictates everything and little thought is required. (*because we already thought it out once and it applies to all like mx+b=y)

07-21-2018, 01:02 AM	#1
tcoots423 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: KS Posts: 197	Resigning young guys Just wondering what you guys do as far as locking up guys that are in arbitration still aka first 6 years of service time. If you know he's a for sure thing and want him long term for cheaper you sign him long term earlier correct? For instance I have Ronald Acuna and after 3 years(1 ROY, 2 All Stars) he's turned into a star of course so when he's gonna get 12 Mill in arbitration I offer a long term deal and ended up signing him for 6 years at 7,9,11,13,17,17. Is this good? What do you guys do? Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk __________________ "Greg Maddux could put a baseball through a life saver if you asked him." - Joe Morgan

07-21-2018, 01:43 AM	#3
tcoots423 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: KS Posts: 197	Thanks. I'm playing of course at Atlanta.. started out with about 90 mill to spend and after 3 good seasons (2 nlcs appearances, 1 world series appearance) I'm up to 140 for salaries.. not bad but still only 12th in the league... Not like I'm in a big market.. Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk __________________ "Greg Maddux could put a baseball through a life saver if you asked him." - Joe Morgan

07-21-2018, 10:57 AM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	if it's a 'deal' for that quality of player, you should jump on it. assuming no financial problems. the more difficult it is to fill that role, the more interested you should be in keeping them on the cheap. --- more general / theoretical not sure on financial environment. 30-35 is a max contract in my leagues and the players most likely to be an all-star are all 18-35M-ish. things should be relative, that should help translate things. relative to makret size -- upto you to learn how much you can afford at any one time. understand bare-bones cost of bench and other filler you are willing to live with and make sure to leave at least that much when stretching budget for "1 more" bigger contract. if it doesn't fit, don't try to bend reality and just let them go. --age is a big factor for me, in addition to things mentioned in above posts. i don't want them signed throug too old of an age even if i intend to trade before those last 1-3 years. if greater return than compensation pick, it is much easier to trade them. if comp pick is greater value, then i'm more concerned about length of contract matching time of need. --type of hitter is key - slugger or obp role on my team. i won't pay 'max' for an obp guy unless he's god. i keep 2 solid obp guys, in case of injury and as many sluggers as i can afford. availability and budget influence what that looks like over time. --stock on farm. even if it's a deal, if i have a near equivalent or better coming i will go the cheaper route. if a little worse, that extra money re-invested elswhere more efficiently will return more wins overall. --ease of replacing. a 1B demanding more than i want to pay is more likely to be traded than a SS demanding a bit extra. i'll probably see something comparable and cheaper/ more flexible contract length stopgap in FA at 1B. i typically only extend players that offer some sort of deal on price -- and not just due to buying arb years. the closer you get to their last arbitration year, the more likely and more closely their demand will resemble a FA's demand. ie higher in price. if you can recognize when the price is high relative to quality of player, it's almost always better to let them hit FA and hope the market brings his demand down to a reasonable level. personality and ?other? factors are definitely creating a spectrum of results on this. take what's offered and don't overspend. the 1-2 extra losses you have in short-term of any difficult loss wil be more than recovered as you more wisely spend that money. if that opportunity doesn't come this year, be patient. that's easy for me to do, because outside of a few rare exceptions, any player that is expected to start on my team isn't older than ~32 and is fairly well spread out so that i can somewhat control the loss of talent over time. the more you deviate from that the more likely you get forced into decisions regarding players/payroll. forced decisions leave it all to luck, and that's not good. Last edited by NoOne; 07-21-2018 at 10:59 AM.

07-21-2018, 01:17 AM	#2
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	A lot depends on your budget and financials etc. My 1 file sometimes I knew a guy was a sure thing while in AAA and I would sign him to a 7-10 year deal before promoting him the 40 man. Usually the contract is heavily in the teams favor. Or at least less then what arbitration would cost. Think Phillies and Kingery this past offseason. Your deal is probably great. If he puts up those numbers his 1st year of arbitration the 2nd year it could jump to 15+ million. The better they do the more money they get especially if they win arbitration it could be 20 mil. My current file I can basically afford 1 contract over double digits. Once I get several players over 5 million its time to start trading them. So poor. Had Oakland's owner sell the team immediately cut budget to 30th place. And he wants 25 million positive balance as a goal. If you think the kid is a no brainer bat or arm and he is young enough for a long term deal then its probably better to sign him up if your team has the financials to do it. Add the last year as a team option with a buyout. IF you have to trade him near end of contract even if you eat some money you aren't on the hook for team options just player options.

07-21-2018, 10:13 AM	#4
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,073	I sign young guys long term I go one year arbitration if they wont do it (most wont) then I try next season if they not greedy sometimes I get lucky at the 2nd time around I might get 3 to 5 seasons but if I wait till last year of arbitration it seems they are willing 50-50% of the time to go long term. I think that's where the greed and loyality comes into play

07-21-2018, 02:25 PM	#6
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	Sometimes when I have a pretty good prospect, but I know I have a lot more pretty good prospects developing that can be used in a package deal to get an elite player that's better than the original prospect, I won't sign the original to a long term deal. In that case, I'm mostly trying to keep the near-term costs low, because I think maybe the AI might see it as more attractive in a deal. I also want them to have to deal with high salaries later on, I don't want to give them a great long term deal, haha. But for a true top talent prospect, I'll keep them off a major league contract as long as possible, but then once I need to add them to the 40-man, I will try to sign them to a long term deal right from the start, for a 10 year deal even. They seem to always be willing if you offer enough. I'm not playing now, so I can't see the numbers exactly. But I think my 77 rated pitcher is signed for an average of 7 or 8 million a year for 10 years.

07-21-2018, 08:57 PM	#7
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	they definitely value club-controlled players more (with some talent of course) and younger in general too. i've never tried the 10year option while in minors... if the math adds up to cheaper it's a viable route with a bit of risk of they don't finish development. it's easy to learn the arbitration values per player results and talent. easy math. just need to learn threshold of what is ~low ~normal ~high cost per talent relative to FA market. with experience these questions become clockwork. context dictates everything and little thought is required. (because we already thought it out once and it applies to all like mx+b=y)