How do predict Pitcher performance in Commissioner mode?

[Sergius64]

Hi everyone,

I've been working with some assumptions in my Padres game regarding what makes a good pitcher and was disappointed with being ranked 13-15th in league in runs allowed year after year. So I'm trying to figure out what makes a good pitcher using Commissioner mode now and am completely puzzled.

Here are the results for my starters from a 2000 run simulation against the Dodgers and the ratings for these starters:

Paddack RHP:
2k run ERA: 4.53
Comm mode ERA: 3.3
Pitch speed: 92-94
Stu: 145 (154fast,83curve,192change)
Mov: 113
Con: 139

Cole RHP:
2k run ERA: 4.65
Comm mode ERA: 3.21
Pitch speed: 90-92
Stu: 145 (110fast, 155sli, 192 change)
Mov: 122
Con: 153

Darvish RHP:
2k Run ERA: 4.71
Comm mode ERA: 3.19
Pitch Speed: 92-94
Stu: 165 (145 fast, 152 cut, 153 curve, 181sli, 111chg, 104 split)
Mov: 161
Con: 126

Lee RHP:
2k Run ERA: 4.72
Comm mode ERA: 3.49
Pitch Speed: 92-94
Stu: 101 (116 fast, 72 curve, 95 sli, 99 change)
mov: 136
con: 153

Green RHP:
2k run ERA: 5.37
Comm mode ERA: 3.68
Pitch Speed: 93-95
Stu: 133 (136 fast, 148 cut, 153 sli, 130 split)
Mov: 112
Con: 133

So I'm not too surprised that Comm mode era is not the best predictor for actual era, but I'm really confused but how the actual ratings don't seem to be a good predictor. 3 pitches seems to give better results then 4+ pitches. Guy with a hole pitch is the best of the lot. It is not clear at all as to why the guy with the best sim era ends up there as he's not better then the other guys in any way.

Maybe fewer really good pitches are better (top two had 192 pitch and less other pitches for it to compete with)? Also seems like Movement isn't as good as I thought even against such a HR heavy team as the dodgers.

[Sergius64]

Ok, did a lot of work with pitchers in the draft by modeling one of my current pitchers with their max values and simming for 2k games.

The best results came for guys that had 2 amazing pitches (at least 180+), 1 average pitch (130s, etc) and 1 poor pitch (20s+) while also having very good Movement and Control (at least 120+).

Guys who had 2 amazing pitches and one really poor pitch under-performed.

Guys who had a bunch of average pitches didn't do so well either.

Velocity did not seem to matter much.

Comm Mode era did seem to be a predictor for actual era, but there was some kind exponential difference where the worse comm mode era got the more exponentially worse actual era got and eventually .1 of comm era difference would amount to .5+ actual era difference.

Best 5 guys in the draft were:

J. Bruster 93-95 mph, 205 Cutter, 139 Curve, 28 Slider, 188 Splitter, 142 Movement, 138 Control, Comm Mode ERA 3.24, Sim ERA 4.59, Sim WHIP 1.31, Sim oAVG .254
B. Stinchcomb 93-95 mph, 216 Cutter, 28 Slider, 166 Changeup, 156 Forkball, 129 Movement, 137 Control, Comm Mode ERA 3.46, Sim ERA 4.7, Sim WHIP 1.29, Sim oAVG .255
C. Viola 92-94 mph, 201 Cutter, 28 Change, 145 Splitter, 201 Forkball, 133 Movement, 110 Control, Comm Mode ERA 3.3, Sim ERA 4.8, Sim WHIP 1.4, Sim oAVG .252
M. Appleby, 92-94 mph, 177 Sinker, 182 Curve, 58 Change, 182 Splitter, 147 movement, 128 Control, Comm mode ERA 3.28, Sim ERA 4.89, Sim WHIP 1.38, Sim oAVG .263
J. Schlecht, 90-92 mph, 175 Cutter, 175 Curveball, 192 Slider, 142 Movement, 140 Control, Comm mode ERA 3.32, Sim ERA 5.0, Sim WHIP 1.38, Sim oAVG .270