Whats the best way to draft guaranteed starting pitchers and not relievers?

GmOfTheYear · 04-23-2018, 11:48 PM

I am pretty upset I drafted a college pitcher who looked like a surefire starter. He had 5/5 stamina. 4 pitches. 2 were 2/4 potential one was 3/5 and another 1/2. Well only one of those 2 pitches developed and now hes a useless reliever. Ugh. Anyone have ways they know for sure someone will start?

Qeltar · 04-24-2018, 12:37 AM

I'd assume there's no way to do this short of commissioner mode.

I mean, the "surefire drafted starter who ends up a reliever" is so common as to be a cliche.

Whoofe · 04-24-2018, 10:14 AM

I am usually less worried about stamina and more worried about the number and quality of pitches and control rating. as long as stamina is at least 45 they'll be able to get thru 5-6 innings most of the time

I want 3+ pitches above 50 (and preferably 3+ pitches above 55 in case of some regression) and control of at least 50 to be a decent starter

NoOne · 04-24-2018, 01:41 PM

assumes you know they need 3 or more decent pitches...

i use a hgiehr reso scale, and that really helps... so, thnk about that and wehther you would want that extra info or not. 1-100 provides teh best info.. each step down increases fog of war. i only speak of a 100pt scale below, so if i say 20/100 that's 1/5th of a scale.. 1/5 of 20-80 woudl be ~31ish etc. (19+12, because 20 included and ="1" 61pt scale/5 is roughly ~12)

some red flags to watch out for:

in draft:
if 2 pitch types are 30current out of X-potential (X being not too low) and one is 1current out of X-potential, that guy is way less likely to develop that third pitch. if later in draft it's a worthy risk if high potential... not so much if it's pick 1-10 in first round. really depends on what else is available.

it does not preclude it from developing, but you'll have better luck if all three start at some level above "1" on your scale *more often witha larger scale due to less fog of war). if there is potential for all 3 pitches, it is a potential future SP, nonetheless.

18 year old SP are a total crapshoot, because often all three or more pitch types start out at a current ability of 1-2 out of X. the ones that start out higher are way more likely to devleop all three. a college kid could be 10-20 current out of x and if the others are quite a bit higher it's a bad sign too... you'll have to keep an eye on their development of tha tpitch.. it may stagnate for ~5-7 years then explode... or more liekly it remains unuseable and lowly rated the older they get.

after draft:
i say "1" but if at a/AA/AA and 1 pitch type is still 1-20 current out of Xpotential and lagging behind the other 2 and basically unchanged for a year or more, then those are less likely to fill out too...

you won't know for ~100% until about age 26, lol... holding one or two in hopes is fine... hoping 5 of them in that situation will fill out your rotation is not a wise choice. i try to trade these guys before AAA-level development, but i do hold on to the very highly rated ones.. at the worst tehy become useful RP.

1 out of 4+ pitches with this problem isn't a problem.. since they have "3" pitches that work.

stamina.. avoid sub 50/100... unless they have extremely good stuff and movement combination, they will be a weak starter that taxes your bullpen.. 1 of these guys in a rotation is fine, but a majority is not.

the rare ones with low stamina and high stuff/movement can eat up innings.. let results dictate.. e.g. if they get to 200ip in 32GS, they are ~okay in that regard and don't let their low stamina rating worry you too much unless it starts to dip. proof is in the pudding in this context... let results dictate.

scouting accuracy is terribly inaccurate at 18-22 and recently drafted... even worse for IAFA at age ~16. even iwth maxed out budgets and a legendary scout.

time helps. being in your organization over that time helps even more. (your players are more accurately scoutied than player in another organization all other factors the same.. )

to test the severity of what i mean -- don't use a leage you care about or you will give yourself too good of info:

leave inaccuracy as you intend to use it and a similar scout quality & budget to your norm.

at rookie, s a, a, aa, and aaa go through each player list in editor with commissioner mode on (just your organization, not entire league).. shortlist any player with "good" ratings under the hood. any threshold you want, really.. it will work for this concept as long as ~mlb capable or better.

so, you have all the better guys shortlisted with 100% accuracy...

no go back to each plaer list per level and sort by potential that includes yournormal scouting inaccuracy setting in effect -- ie not 100%accurate! notice the distribution of the capitalized names...

at Rookie, they will be all over the place from poorly rated to well-rated -- total crapshoot. . if your socut is correct about half of them it's a %$#@ing miracle. accurate to RL, not a comlplaint.

at AAA, nearly all of them will be near the top while sorted by potential. corrections happen over time.. they may not be perfectly accurate, but it will be noticeably better at AAA vs R levels. and a spectrum between at ach level improving accuracy.

so, drafting is a crapshoot, but it's an equal playing field for all 30 teams. they see the same junk as you. if you spend more and have a better scout, it does shade the odds in your favor in comparison to your competition....

you can use this to test how good your scout is on a draft pool too...

edit the scout and budge and "re-run scouting" form league settigns funciton and you can see where "diminishing returns" is, if at all. multiple re-runs per scout abilit and budget combinations needed for an accurate assement for each combination, of course.

you don't ahve to dive that deep into teh hole, though...

i use this to evaluate my sorting and filters i use in draft.. what i learned in ootp18 is that after the first round, i consistently find more well-rounded SP by sorting by movement and having a filter for minimum stuff/control etc...

***not a very high threshold for minimum stuff/control when dealing with draftees due to crappy accuracy.. plust stuff for 18-20year olds will change drastically if they pick up velocity, which can happen more than rarely.

at that point i am sorting by movement, but not selecting based on who is at the very top, but i am taking people "near" the top... i look at age, velocity, stamina, # of pitches with suitable potential as well as if any are severely lagging (the stuff i say above about "1"/x potential pitches not developing)

anyway, when i sort and filter this way, i see a larger percentage of Capitalized names when i tested it... i went through before and shorlisted with 100% accuracy teh "betteR" prospects taht have a chance of playing in MLB. i used a method of sorting and filtering tha tprovided the greatest chance of my running into one in later rounds...

drafting 1-10 in first round i am looking purely at potential of their ratings (not overall potential) and grabbing best that i see... early on it's still the best way to go. don't use some eccentric sorting/filter method early on -- that's meant for after the highly rated players are taken)

after round 2, it gets very difficult to find 3+ pitches, stamina and good stuff/movement/control... just temper expectations... expect a low-rate of success and just like all other teams in league. if oyu get 1-2+ useable/tradeable SP a year in draft, that's probably good. and that's drafting SP in early rounds religiously. you probably want some offense in there too.

NoOne · 04-25-2018, 12:18 PM

edit about draft: i say after 1st round i sort by movement.. not quite true i misspoke.

depends on depth in that draft... once it's all sub ~40ish potential, i switch over from sorting by 'overall potential' to "movement potential".

it's the least accurate of the three major pitching ratings in the draft as of ootp18. assuming it's similar in '19 too. you avoid more of the 1/200 movement guys (or sub-100/200 movement guys really)

BBGiovanni · 04-26-2018, 11:16 AM

I trade for them once they're in A ball :P in my longest-running dynasty there are very few 5-star pitchers for whatever reason, so I try to poach from the minors of the teams with the best ML starters.

timmermac · 04-26-2018, 11:33 AM

I always look for high-stamina guys. I prefer starters with stamina >=90.

Qeltar · 04-26-2018, 11:47 AM

I actually like to look for miscast or underappreciated starters who have been made into RPs way too early in their careers. 40% of my (admittedly poor) rotation right now consists of RPs with 50+ stamina.

andjbock · 04-27-2018, 12:06 PM

Here is a random real-life sampling. 1st round picks from the 2008 draft who were taken as starters and what % of appearances were starts. Only 2 are above 50%.

Code:

#	Name	Team	Games	Starts	%
28	Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees	132	132	100%
19	Andrew Cashner	Chicago Cubs	235	142	60%
30	Casey Kelly	Boston Red Sox	19	9	47%
15	Ethan Martin	Los Angeles Dodgers	17	8	47%
25	C. Friedrich	Colorado Rockies	124	42	34%
4	Brian Matusz	Baltimore Orioles	280	69	25%
27	C.Gutiérrez	Minnesota Twins	142	32	23%
9	Aaron Crow	Washington Nationals	254	0	0%

04-23-2018, 11:48 PM	#1
GmOfTheYear Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 402	Whats the best way to draft guaranteed starting pitchers and not relievers? I am pretty upset I drafted a college pitcher who looked like a surefire starter. He had 5/5 stamina. 4 pitches. 2 were 2/4 potential one was 3/5 and another 1/2. Well only one of those 2 pitches developed and now hes a useless reliever. Ugh. Anyone have ways they know for sure someone will start?

04-24-2018, 01:41 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	assumes you know they need 3 or more decent pitches... i use a hgiehr reso scale, and that really helps... so, thnk about that and wehther you would want that extra info or not. 1-100 provides teh best info.. each step down increases fog of war. i only speak of a 100pt scale below, so if i say 20/100 that's 1/5th of a scale.. 1/5 of 20-80 woudl be ~31ish etc. (19+12, because 20 included and ="1" 61pt scale/5 is roughly ~12) some red flags to watch out for: in draft: if 2 pitch types are 30current out of X-potential (X being not too low) and one is 1current out of X-potential, that guy is way less likely to develop that third pitch. if later in draft it's a worthy risk if high potential... not so much if it's pick 1-10 in first round. really depends on what else is available. it does not preclude it from developing, but you'll have better luck if all three start at some level above "1" on your scale more often witha larger scale due to less fog of war). if there is potential for all 3 pitches, it is a potential future SP, nonetheless. 18 year old SP are a total crapshoot, because often all three or more pitch types start out at a current ability of 1-2 out of X. the ones that start out higher are way more likely to devleop all three. a college kid could be 10-20 current out of x and if the others are quite a bit higher it's a bad sign too... you'll have to keep an eye on their development of tha tpitch.. it may stagnate for ~5-7 years then explode... or more liekly it remains unuseable and lowly rated the older they get. after draft: i say "1" but if at a/AA/AA and 1 pitch type is still 1-20 current out of Xpotential and lagging behind the other 2 and basically unchanged for a year or more, then those are less likely to fill out too... you won't know for ~100% until about age 26, lol... holding one or two in hopes is fine... hoping 5 of them in that situation will fill out your rotation is not a wise choice. i try to trade these guys before AAA-level development, but i do hold on to the very highly rated ones.. at the worst tehy become useful RP. 1 out of 4+ pitches with this problem isn't a problem.. since they have "3" pitches that work. stamina.. avoid sub 50/100... unless they have extremely good stuff and movement combination, they will be a weak starter that taxes your bullpen.. 1 of these guys in a rotation is fine, but a majority is not. the rare ones with low stamina and high stuff/movement can eat up innings.. let results dictate.. e.g. if they get to 200ip in 32GS, they are ~okay in that regard and don't let their low stamina rating worry you too much unless it starts to dip. proof is in the pudding in this context... let results dictate. scouting accuracy is terribly inaccurate at 18-22 and recently drafted... even worse for IAFA at age ~16. even iwth maxed out budgets and a legendary scout. time helps. being in your organization over that time helps even more. (your players are more accurately scoutied than player in another organization all other factors the same.. ) to test the severity of what i mean -- don't use a leage you care about or you will give yourself too good of info: leave inaccuracy as you intend to use it and a similar scout quality & budget to your norm. at rookie, s a, a, aa, and aaa go through each player list in editor with commissioner mode on (just your organization, not entire league).. shortlist any player with "good" ratings under the hood. any threshold you want, really.. it will work for this concept as long as ~mlb capable or better. so, you have all the better guys shortlisted with 100% accuracy... no go back to each plaer list per level and sort by potential that includes yournormal scouting inaccuracy setting in effect -- ie not 100%accurate! notice the distribution of the capitalized names... at Rookie, they will be all over the place from poorly rated to well-rated -- total crapshoot. . if your socut is correct about half of them it's a %$#@ing miracle. accurate to RL, not a comlplaint. at AAA, nearly all of them will be near the top while sorted by potential. corrections happen over time.. they may not be perfectly accurate, but it will be noticeably better at AAA vs R levels. and a spectrum between at ach level improving accuracy. so, drafting is a crapshoot, but it's an equal playing field for all 30 teams. they see the same junk as you. if you spend more and have a better scout, it does shade the odds in your favor in comparison to your competition.... you can use this to test how good your scout is on a draft pool too... edit the scout and budge and "re-run scouting" form league settigns funciton and you can see where "diminishing returns" is, if at all. multiple re-runs per scout abilit and budget combinations needed for an accurate assement for each combination, of course. you don't ahve to dive that deep into teh hole, though... i use this to evaluate my sorting and filters i use in draft.. what i learned in ootp18 is that after the first round, i consistently find more well-rounded SP by sorting by movement and having a filter for minimum stuff/control etc... *not a very high threshold for minimum stuff/control when dealing with draftees due to crappy accuracy.. plust stuff for 18-20year olds will change drastically if they pick up velocity, which can happen more than rarely. at that point i am sorting by movement, but not selecting based on who is at the very top, but i am taking people "near" the top... i look at age, velocity, stamina, # of pitches with suitable potential as well as if any are severely lagging (the stuff i say above about "1"/x potential pitches not developing) anyway, when i sort and filter this way, i see a larger percentage of Capitalized names when i tested it... i went through before and shorlisted with 100% accuracy teh "betteR" prospects taht have a chance of playing in MLB. i used a method of sorting and filtering tha tprovided the greatest chance of my running into one in later rounds... drafting 1-10 in first round i am looking purely at potential of their ratings (not overall potential) and grabbing best that i see... early on it's still the best way to go. don't use some eccentric sorting/filter method early on -- that's meant for after the highly rated players are taken) after round 2, it gets very difficult to find 3+ pitches, stamina and good stuff/movement/control... just temper expectations... expect a low-rate of success and just like all other teams in league. if oyu get 1-2+ useable/tradeable SP a year in draft, that's probably good. and that's drafting SP in early rounds religiously. you probably want some offense in there too. Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 02:00 PM.*

04-26-2018, 11:16 AM	#6
BBGiovanni All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Republic of California Posts: 1,911	I trade for them once they're in A ball :P in my longest-running dynasty there are very few 5-star pitchers for whatever reason, so I try to poach from the minors of the teams with the best ML starters. __________________ Let's Go (San Jose) Giants, Let's Go Mets! Current Project: WBAT/AABBA: Organized Base Ball And the "New Normal" World Baseball Aid Tournament 2023 trophy round underway!

04-26-2018, 11:33 AM	#7
timmermac Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 449	I always look for high-stamina guys. I prefer starters with stamina >=90. __________________ Running with the 1950 Braves. Crush the baseball. Drive it before you. And hear the lamentation of the opponent's women. I am king of the diamond! Let there be a grand clubhouse feast! Bring me the finest meats and cheeses in all the land!

04-24-2018, 12:37 AM	#2
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	I'd assume there's no way to do this short of commissioner mode. I mean, the "surefire drafted starter who ends up a reliever" is so common as to be a cliche.

04-24-2018, 10:14 AM	#3
Whoofe All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 590	I am usually less worried about stamina and more worried about the number and quality of pitches and control rating. as long as stamina is at least 45 they'll be able to get thru 5-6 innings most of the time I want 3+ pitches above 50 (and preferably 3+ pitches above 55 in case of some regression) and control of at least 50 to be a decent starter

04-25-2018, 12:18 PM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	edit about draft: i say after 1st round i sort by movement.. not quite true i misspoke. depends on depth in that draft... once it's all sub ~40ish potential, i switch over from sorting by 'overall potential' to "movement potential". it's the least accurate of the three major pitching ratings in the draft as of ootp18. assuming it's similar in '19 too. you avoid more of the 1/200 movement guys (or sub-100/200 movement guys really)

04-26-2018, 11:47 AM	#8
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	I actually like to look for miscast or underappreciated starters who have been made into RPs way too early in their careers. 40% of my (admittedly poor) rotation right now consists of RPs with 50+ stamina.