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| OOTP 19 - General Discussions Everything about the 2018 version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA. |
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#1 |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 3
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How do you guys develop prospects?
Alright so I'm playing as the Tigers trying to rebuild them and literally none of my pitching prospects turn out. And I don't so much have a problem with that as much as I do with the reasons they aren't panning out. Every single time I draft a five star they drop to 2.5 or 2 stars after their first minor league season. It really upset after the last two I drafted. Both were 5 stars with stuff, movement, and control ratings of over 60 with at least 3 plus plus secondary pitches. Their first season they both have sub 3.00 ERAs, sub 3.0 BB/9 and less than 1 HR/9. But after the season they both dropped to 2 star prospects and both of their control ratings dropped to 25 and 30. Is there anything I can do to change this?
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#2 | |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 162
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Quote:
Second question, what are your scouting settings and how are these pitchers being used? If both of those are fairly in line, then it sounds like it could just be the usual situation where a guy looks promising out of the draft but when you get him into your system you get to see what he really has. You could try going to 100% accurate scouting and see if that has any effect. Also, I prefer to use absolute ratings over relative and also "ratings over all positions, not just per position" to get a better feel of players. Some guys are just busts though and "can't miss" prospects do miss IRL. |
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#3 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 471
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I use Scouting, but I get intrigued sometimes to see how far off my Scott is on players by just clicking that wonderful OSA botton
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#4 |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 3
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They were both used as starters in rookie ball and both accumulated roughly 75 innings. The pitching coach isn't tremendous he has a fair reputation but it says he has worked well with young players before which is why I signed him. My scout also has a great reputation and his reputation with amateurs and international players are both excellent. I know guys don't always turn out in real life and I'm probably just getting frustrated because I've played so many seasons and literally none of my pitching prospects have turned out but I don't know what I'm doing wrong.
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#5 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 449
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Tinstaapp
__________________
Running with the 1950 Braves. Crush the baseball. Drive it before you. And hear the lamentation of the opponent's women. I am king of the diamond! Let there be a grand clubhouse feast! Bring me the finest meats and cheeses in all the land! |
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#6 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 442
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I wish I knew the secret to this. My current #3 starter was a scouting discovery who is now 26 years old. I have my asst. GM handling minor league promotions and I wasn't even really aware of him until he reached AAA. His ratings ( even now) aren't eye catching. He was a relief pitcher all the way through the minors .. had to bring him up middle of last year due to injury. He hasn't gone back down yet.
In,fact he was my 5th starter ending last year and would have been higher if I trusted him. Starting this year he is in the 3rd slot and still performing above what his ratings would suggest. Why this guy? No idea but I'd like to know if it's more than just dumb luck. |
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#7 |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 33
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First off I tend to play with overall ratings turned off. I do pay attention to their individual ratings, but I also watch their stats. If they are producing then their ratings may be affected by "fog of war".
I used to fall in the trap of watching the overall ratings and thinking man my players just became crap overnight, but I have since found that the overall rating tends to cloud my judgement. You see someone who is 5 stats or 80 overall and think they are great, but I have seen too many 1 star players with solid ratings turn out great seasons so I turned off the overall rating. Hope that all makes sense. |
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#8 | |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 442
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#9 |
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All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 621
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I have noticed that speedy players have higher overall ratings, but that speed does not make them that much better. Also, the overall rating may be affected by the listed position. For example, a guy with ratings that could make him a good CF may be listed as a 80/80 LF. If you change his position to CF, his overall rating may drop substantially.
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#10 |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 177
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Wow - I just posted something similar. I'm also the Tigers, and have the exact same issue. Faedo, Burrows, Manning, Perez...all of them are awful now, as are the ones I drafted. The hitters are slightly better, but I don't have one pitcher in the system that turned out so far, or looks like their turn out.
I also have Fair or Good managers and pitching coaches, and I tried swapping out various pitching coaches, with no luck. |
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#11 |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 7,273
Infractions: 0/1 (3)
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Development -- if they don't have the potential they can NEVER develope without extreme luck from TCR increasing their potential in arandom and unpredictable way.
promote based on developement.. if ratings are similar to the next level up, promote them etc etc.. who cares if they hit .200 if their ratings are sky-rocketting. (age can be a factor. e.g. few 18year olds will develop and have success at AAA/AA.. even A-ball sometimes. but if they do, don't hold them back. let them fail first before you maek that decision based on age.) if you have a good scout and pay more than baseline, odds are he is more often right than the OSA.. so, don't bet against the odds. that's like taking a hit on 17 in blackjack... you just don't do it, ever. simply about probability. overall/pot is fine to look at, but don't get enamored by it in the daft -- even more so with SP. the top 5-10 picks should be the 76-80 / 80 guys, after that it's tougher to see and the remaining 76-80 guys after those 10 picks or so are likely hit-or-miss scouting inaccuraccy, since so many teams passsed them up. (they pick the wrong ones too in those first 5-10, of course, but hte longer you go in draft the more liekly those "highly" rated guys are imposters) SP -- age matters -- a young age will display a less-then-likely stuff rating, which will bring down their potential. there's a chance their velocity incrases by ~21-22 etc.. high risk, high reward type thing. SP - make sure movement or control is not 1/100 or 10/100 etc.. extremely low in either, not matter how well rated, will never be an MLB player. SP- make sure they have at least 3 pitches -- same as for movement/control -- if 1 of those pitches are 1or10+/100 (extremely low), then you have an RP listed as an SP. don't get hung up on the positions given in the draft.. they will often change just as in RL... almost all pitchers drafted were SP in high school etc in real life and is so in the game too. even college sp are often future RP. in fact, after many of the top SP prospects are gone, start lookig for position players with the above requirements of an SP... they will often be excellent choices to be converted to an SP. (i woudn't convert an 80+contact ~80power guy, of course.. or even an 80contact high obp leadoff stud, for that matter... but a middling offensive prospect, sure an SP is worth more than them playing the field) personality -- after the other requirements are met, this is a good tie-breaker. work ethic and intelligence are you keys for development. make bad personalities a secondary thing, unless you have a ton of malcontents on your MLB team all the time. a few is no problem if they are all-stars or future HoF players. coaches have an effect, but they will never turn an average player into an all-star. that will simply be luck of a one-year wonder small sample size, and not the coach when it does randomly occur. pay good ones if you can afford them of course... unfortunately all we see is reputation and that is a weak correlation to a good coach, at best... no way for us to know anymore unless you turn commisioner mode on and look at their ratings. i have another post that goes in depth about filters and learning aspects of the draft... using a throway league to to determine when you see a ton of the 1/100 movement or control guys become the norm as opposed ot the rarity.. essentailly you won't find any viable pitcher once these types dominate the choices available and it will occur at roughly the same time in teh draft relative to depth of that draft each year. it'll be the same range of rounds each year etc. this one has a general overview: ** i was wrong about work ethic in this link below, but still stand by that inetelligence had a stronger correlation that year than work ethic to development.. i still think work ethic i smore about aging as far as a large affect: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=282564 ugh i cannot find the one i wanted to link.. basically how i learn: i'll leave accuarcy as normal and use a similar scout/budget.. with comissioner mode on i'll go through and shortlist the viable prospects (batters are easier, i do this mostly for pitching). you can jsut do the "Elite" as a proof of concept too... so you highlight them so they stand out like a sore thumb. then, apply various filters or sorting methods.. which method produces the highest % of capitalized names at the top? those are the methods i stick to. i don't do this for the first ~10 picks, though. i will take the elitely rated, because that's still your best %-bet. if you hit on 50% of your first round picks be happy... specifically roudn1, pick 1-10 i want a higher %-success than 50%, of course. Last edited by NoOne; 03-31-2018 at 07:59 PM. |
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#12 |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 7,273
Infractions: 0/1 (3)
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i forgot one other common trend...
if after a few years in your MiL system one of their pitches remains a "current" ability 1/100 (or extremely low and never budging), it will likely never develop. even if the potential is Max+. i don't recommend giving up on them as an SP, but odds are they will be an RP if they make the majors. late development can happen, but not often. by ~26-28 it's pretty much written in stone if they have not fully developed. 22-26 is still very unlikely if no movement upward for that pitch has occured anytime recently. use the scouting report history in the player's profile to guage if the current ability of that pitch has ever budged or recently budged upward. can see each month lined up over time on this screen. * oh, keep all scouting reports, don't delete them.. they are very useful information. keeping only a yearly report won't resolve as much as can be resolved if you keep them all. if while in your bullpen you start to see that third pitch creep upward... you very well may have a late-blossoming SP. Last edited by NoOne; 04-01-2018 at 06:33 AM. |
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#13 |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Kingston ON CA
Posts: 1,651
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Here is a couple of video's from Brandon S how to develop prospects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZToN90n0B7c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztelz4FF4mg |
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#14 |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 7,273
Infractions: 0/1 (3)
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i wish he'd focus more on development and maintaining of ratings than mlb career stats.. that data is all about after the player has fully developed -- or mostly developed.
it's clear the work ethic guys last longer.. while you see some low wrok ethic guys at top, you see even fewer low intelligence guys at the top.. ie fewer of them reach their ceiling while developing. both are important, but he is basically ignoring intelligence in this experiment and it is definitely part of the equation. i wish he'd have differentiatedmore on intell\igenc in equal ways and combinations with work ethic and also just used ratings during development and % of development achieved to actaully look into this effect... looking at a player after he is developed and in their stats taht occur after development isn't going to tell us much about development... it will tell us about longevity in their mlb careers - which is good info too. if you have ratings on, you should not use stats like he does... it'll just slow down that player's development. if ratings are rising, the player is getting better and closer to the MLB.. if he hits .200 while doing it, it simply doesn't matter. fully developed is fully developed no matter what their MiL career numbers say.. it won't change the quality of the player at all. Last edited by NoOne; 04-01-2018 at 07:26 PM. |
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#15 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 471
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Trying to develop prospects playing as the Orioles. Requires some Redbull, Jose Cuervo, and a lot more liquor than probably allowed to be smuggled into this country. But watching them play in real life this development staff got the fact that we're horrible down to as bad as bad can be on the baseball side.
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#16 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 489
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I've found coaches matter more than you think.
For example. Contact hitter will develop on a team slower if the hitting coach focus is power. A power hitter would develop faster. Same goes for pitchers. Neutral focus will develop all, but slow than when focus matches and faster if it does not. When I take over an organization, I decide what my focus will be for batters and pitchers and start staffing the organization with coaches that match that focus. It may take a few years to get it right at all levels, but eventually they will all be the same. I allow neutral more at lower levels with the hope of finding an unknown that develops. I also will match my drafting and trading styles to mirror the focus. If I decide to use contact for batters, I concentrate on getting the best contact hitters when acquiring players. That does not mean I will ignore other types if they look like they will be stars. In fact I may hire a coach with matching style to follow the player as they rise up through the minors. I think this method works. It's probably not the only way to develop talent, but I did notice that the young talent develops better this was and are ready for the majors much sooner. When drafting you may miss out on the next HR king, or .400 hitter, but your organization will be healthier in my opinion. I have no issue trading for talent in the majors to fill holes to get these kind of players. Once in the majors, the coaching/learning aspect is much slower and the impact not as great unless you are fielding a team of young prospects. Malor |
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#17 | |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Maryland - just outside DC
Posts: 1,675
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__________________
- - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011 |
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#18 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Zürich, Switzerland
Posts: 8,608
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Hold the players families as hostages.
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#19 |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 7,273
Infractions: 0/1 (3)
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a real concern for the players from south america or any other 3rd-world coutnry.
there's a reason why the gated communities there are guarded by men with heavy automatic waepons... no joke. scary as %#$... no idea why people vacation there. flying an ultralight, assemble yourself "ikea" plane is probably more danagerous... but still. |
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#20 | |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 104
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Quote:
The others are sticking with it but don't appear to be the prospects they are in reality. Burrows hung around in AAA. Perez was doing okay in AA at the end of 2018. Manning was fine at A-ball. None of them were excelling. That said, the AI GMs still rate these guys in potential trades, so I'm ignoring ratings and just focusing on moving them through the ranks at an appropriate age: Burrows and Perez are both ahead of schedule already. If I've learned anything from OOTP, it's that scouting and talent eval can fluctuate widely from year to year, and you have to focus more on the process and results than the ratings. (With regard to position players: in my game, Candelario has turned out great, Paredes is way ahead of schedule, and Dawel Lugo and Daz Cameron still look like useful pieces.) |
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