Random Debut--Experiment

David Watts · 02-04-2018, 12:00 AM

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David Watts · 02-04-2018, 12:03 AM

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David Watts · 02-04-2018, 12:06 AM

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David Watts · 02-04-2018, 12:09 AM

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David Watts · 02-04-2018, 12:34 AM

Okay the above screenshots are from a random debut league started in 1947. The league is setup to import modifiers for historical accuracy. The league is also using the OOTP development engine, but this time I changed talent change randomness to 200, instead of the default 100.

Now here is the kicker and what I would love to get opinions on. In an attempt to decrease the number of super seasons, especially in regards to huge individual hit seasons, I decreased hits modifier by .20 each season on opening day. Example, if modifier was .913 after calculation, I changed it to .893. Take a look at the results.

As you can see, the high hit seasons are still running high, but not nearly as bad. Home runs seem to be a little to high as well.

The real good news is the 200 TCR seems to do away with a huge share of the Andre Ethier type nonsense I was seeing with 100 TCR. Guy that over achieve don't tend to do it clumps of 3 or more seasons.

I also tried lowering the hit modifier in a straight historical league. I found that instead of .20, I was able to use .15 or .12 as straight historical runs a little less hot than random debut.

Just thought I would post this and see if it makes any sense. Thoughts?

JaBurns · 02-04-2018, 07:30 AM

I mess with TCR all the time but my belief was that it would affect an individual to have "unexpected" season(s) good or bad compared to an overall career. This should not have an affect on the season numbers, that is the league totals would be "normal" but individuals would vary over a season and a career. Hope my basic understanding of TCR is correct if not I have to re-think my entire concept.

David Watts · 02-04-2018, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JaBurns

I mess with TCR all the time but my belief was that it would affect an individual to have "unexpected" season(s) good or bad compared to an overall career. This should not have an affect on the season numbers, that is the league totals would be "normal" but individuals would vary over a season and a career. Hope my basic understanding of TCR is correct if not I have to re-think my entire concept.

I think what you just said is true, but I'm desperate. All I know is I'm not seeing the big clumps of superhero like performance with 200. Maybe that's due to lowering the hits modifier alone, but who knows.

JaBurns · 02-04-2018, 10:00 AM

Let me know if I can do anything to help; but that is the tail wagging the dog because I piggy back off your's and actionjackson's ideas but am willing to help.

David Watts · 02-04-2018, 11:42 AM

Here is Ron Santo in this random debut.
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JaBurns · 02-04-2018, 03:58 PM

Santo still looks a little “hot” but not as outrageous of your previous experiment with I believe the TCR set at 100.

02-04-2018, 12:00 AM	#1
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Random Debut--Experiment

02-04-2018, 12:03 AM	#2
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)

02-04-2018, 12:06 AM	#3
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)

02-04-2018, 12:09 AM	#4
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)

02-04-2018, 12:34 AM	#5
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Okay the above screenshots are from a random debut league started in 1947. The league is setup to import modifiers for historical accuracy. The league is also using the OOTP development engine, but this time I changed talent change randomness to 200, instead of the default 100. Now here is the kicker and what I would love to get opinions on. In an attempt to decrease the number of super seasons, especially in regards to huge individual hit seasons, I decreased hits modifier by .20 each season on opening day. Example, if modifier was .913 after calculation, I changed it to .893. Take a look at the results. As you can see, the high hit seasons are still running high, but not nearly as bad. Home runs seem to be a little to high as well. The real good news is the 200 TCR seems to do away with a huge share of the Andre Ethier type nonsense I was seeing with 100 TCR. Guy that over achieve don't tend to do it clumps of 3 or more seasons. I also tried lowering the hit modifier in a straight historical league. I found that instead of .20, I was able to use .15 or .12 as straight historical runs a little less hot than random debut. Just thought I would post this and see if it makes any sense. Thoughts?

02-04-2018, 07:30 AM	#6
JaBurns All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: Kelowna, British Columbia Posts: 1,295	I mess with TCR all the time but my belief was that it would affect an individual to have "unexpected" season(s) good or bad compared to an overall career. This should not have an affect on the season numbers, that is the league totals would be "normal" but individuals would vary over a season and a career. Hope my basic understanding of TCR is correct if not I have to re-think my entire concept.

02-04-2018, 10:00 AM	#8
JaBurns All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: Kelowna, British Columbia Posts: 1,295	Let me know if I can do anything to help; but that is the tail wagging the dog because I piggy back off your's and actionjackson's ideas but am willing to help.

02-04-2018, 11:42 AM	#9
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Here is Ron Santo in this random debut.

02-04-2018, 03:58 PM	#10
JaBurns All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: Kelowna, British Columbia Posts: 1,295	Santo still looks a little “hot” but not as outrageous of your previous experiment with I believe the TCR set at 100.