1 year recalc---is it broken?

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 06:52 AM

Take a look at these screenshots. Players just don't have this type of consistency using 1 year recalc. Overachieving for a season is one thing, but stringing together monster seasons like pictured is just hard to fathom. This league is using a combo of recalc and the development engine.
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David Watts · 01-27-2018, 06:56 AM

Sorry, I posted Hosmer's real stats above instead of his OOTP stats.
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David Watts · 01-27-2018, 07:40 AM

More testing needed, but I'm actually starting to think the issue is using a combo of the development engine and recalc. Running a test right now with another random league that mirrors the one the screenshots are from. I'm still seeing guys have super seasons, but not as many back to back. For example, Carlos May hit .397 in 1984. He then hit .287, .287 and .291 in the following years. Leon Roberts hit .386 in 1984, but followed it up with .261, .277 and .248.

Going to runs some more seasons to see if this continues.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 08:38 AM

Still seeing way too many super seasons. But, without development on, I'm seeing fewer players stringing together runs of 2 to 4 super seasons in a row. Could this be due to the development engine being off?

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 09:21 AM

Now let's look at hits.

Real Major League baseball
Most hits in a season 262 Ichiru Suzuki 2004
6 total players have reached 250-257 hits in a single season
8 total players have reached 240-248 hits in a single season
25 total players have reached 230-239 hits in a single season

This is over the entire history of baseball excluding seasons prior to 1876.

Now lets look at a Random Debut league that started in 1984 and stops in 1994

Dale Ennis had 260 hits in 1994. This was achieved by Ennis in his rookie season in which he hit .390 with 69 doubles. In real life, Ennis hit .313 with 30 doubles.

4 total players have reached 252-259 hits in a single season
Enos Cabell -259
Willie Mays -257
Rudy Law - 257
Cecil Travis - 252

8 total players have reached 240-248 hits in a single season
15 total players have reached 230-239 hits in a single season

Entire history of baseball 40 players between 230-262 hits in a single season. That's every season excluding seasons prior to 1876.

OOTP18 random debut league starting in 1984 and running through 1994, 11 seasons, 28 players between 230-260.

Why do players get so many hits using OOTP18? Please don't put league totals into play, as they don't explain the 28 players over 11 seasons compared to 40 players during the entire 100+ year history of baseball. Not smart enough to know the answer, but something is clearly wrong.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 10:48 AM

Fictional league 1984-1994

12 total players from 230-244 total hits in a season
5 players 240 to 244
7 players 230-238

Now I will do a straight historical no, random debut for the same period.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 12:28 PM

Now let's look at a straight historical---non random debut

Same years 1984 -1994. 1 year recalc, development off

Total hits for a season

277 Andres Galarraga 1993. Andres hit .407 .429OBP. In real life he hit .370 in 1993 but only played in 120 games. 1993 OOTP he plays in 160 games. He gets 211 more OOTP at bats than he did in real life and uses them to get 103 hits. Hmmm .488?

262 Don Mattingly 1984. Mattingly hit .381. .420OBP. Real life he hit .343, .383 OBP. 687 OOTP at bats vs 603 real life. 262 OOTP hits, 207 real life. 55 more hits in the 84 extra at bats, .655.

261 Wade Boggs 1985. Boggs hit .421, .509 OBP. In real life Boggs hit .368, .450 OBP. 620 OOTP at bats(he walked 113 times compared to 96 real life) vs 653 real life at bats. 261 OOTP hits vs 240 real life

244 Andres Galarraga
240 Don Mattingly
240 Steve Sax

15 total batter with 230-239 hits in a season

21 total OOTP batters in a straight historical that runs 11 years get 230-277 hits over a season.

Again 40 players have hits in a season totaling between 230-262 from 1877-2017.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 12:46 PM

OOTP16 random debut starting in 1947 and just finished 1964. 18 year league. 1 year recalc "automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy."

Hits for a season

233 Hal Chase, 1956. Hal hit .341, .363 OBP

228 Hank Aaron, 1961. Aaron hit .342, .369 OBP
220 Vada Pinson, 1961. Pinson hit .334, .371 OBP

It then drops all the way to 213, Starling Marte 1949

So 18 years 1 player above 230, with 233. Want to hear something really cool? From 1947-1964 the most hits a real life MLB player got in a real MLB season was 230 by Tommy Davis in 1962. Hmmmmm!

pstrickert · 01-27-2018, 03:15 PM

I ran a long-term sim from 1901-2016 last night. 1-yr recalc, real lineups and transactions. Some results:

60+ HR

IRL: 8 instances
Sim: 20 instances (Ralph Kiner hit 75 in one season!)

.400+ BA

IRL: 13 instances
Sim: 37 instances

260+ Hits

IRL: 1 instance
Sim: 11 instances

60+ Doubles

IRL: 6 instances
Sim: 36 instances

25+ Triples

IRL: 7 instances
Sim: 36 instances

350+ Ks

IRL: 5 instances
Sim: 20 instances

pstrickert · 01-27-2018, 03:18 PM

Believe it or not, I don't think I ever ran a long-term sim during beta testing for OOTP18. However, I used to run them at least once during beta testing for previous versions. I can't remember seeing results run this "hot" before.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pstrickert

I ran a long-term sim from 1901-2016 last night. 1-yr recalc, real lineups and transactions. Some results:

60+ HR

IRL: 8 instances
Sim: 20 instances (Ralph Kiner hit 75 in one season!)

.400+ BA

IRL: 13 instances
Sim: 37 instances

260+ Hits

IRL: 1 instance
Sim: 11 instances

Can you check and see what the highest Rogers Hornsby hit in your league? Just want to see if he had wild season in yours like he did in both Reed's and mine.

pstrickert · 01-27-2018, 03:22 PM

Hornsby: .416

Heilmann: .459

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pstrickert

Hornsby: .416

Heilmann: .459

That's much better than the .485 Hornsby hit in mine.

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 03:58 PM

Thinking there needs to be a Great in front of that Pumpkin Charlie Brown
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actionjackson · 01-27-2018, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

That's much better than the .385 Hornsby hit in mine.

Wasn't it .485?

David Watts · 01-27-2018, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Wasn't it .485?

Yes, it was. I need to change that.

David Watts · 01-29-2018, 09:18 PM

Here is the 277 hit season. As you can see .370 was too pedestrian. Name: historical_mudflap_1994-10-26_18-59-27.jpg
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pstrickert · 01-29-2018, 11:25 PM

RobC shared a homegrown program that compares sim stats and real stats after simming a season. The output shows whether sim stats fell one, two, or three standard deviations from real life stats. If you’re interested, I could find the program and share it (as RobC was always pleased to do).

pstrickert · 01-30-2018, 12:22 AM

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...56&postcount=1

actionjackson · 01-30-2018, 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pstrickert

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...56&postcount=1

I tried to link there, but whatever you've linked to I seem to be forbidden from accessing it.

01-27-2018, 06:52 AM	#1
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	1 year recalc---is it broken? Take a look at these screenshots. Players just don't have this type of consistency using 1 year recalc. Overachieving for a season is one thing, but stringing together monster seasons like pictured is just hard to fathom. This league is using a combo of recalc and the development engine.

01-27-2018, 03:15 PM	#9
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,523	I ran a long-term sim from 1901-2016 last night. 1-yr recalc, real lineups and transactions. Some results: 60+ HR IRL: 8 instances Sim: 20 instances (Ralph Kiner hit 75 in one season!) .400+ BA IRL: 13 instances Sim: 37 instances 260+ Hits IRL: 1 instance Sim: 11 instances 60+ Doubles IRL: 6 instances Sim: 36 instances 25+ Triples IRL: 7 instances Sim: 36 instances 350+ Ks IRL: 5 instances Sim: 20 instances Last edited by pstrickert; 01-27-2018 at 03:31 PM.

01-27-2018, 06:56 AM	#2
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Sorry, I posted Hosmer's real stats above instead of his OOTP stats.

01-27-2018, 07:40 AM	#3
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	More testing needed, but I'm actually starting to think the issue is using a combo of the development engine and recalc. Running a test right now with another random league that mirrors the one the screenshots are from. I'm still seeing guys have super seasons, but not as many back to back. For example, Carlos May hit .397 in 1984. He then hit .287, .287 and .291 in the following years. Leon Roberts hit .386 in 1984, but followed it up with .261, .277 and .248. Going to runs some more seasons to see if this continues.

01-27-2018, 08:38 AM	#4
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Still seeing way too many super seasons. But, without development on, I'm seeing fewer players stringing together runs of 2 to 4 super seasons in a row. Could this be due to the development engine being off?

01-27-2018, 09:21 AM	#5
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Now let's look at hits. Real Major League baseball Most hits in a season 262 Ichiru Suzuki 2004 6 total players have reached 250-257 hits in a single season 8 total players have reached 240-248 hits in a single season 25 total players have reached 230-239 hits in a single season This is over the entire history of baseball excluding seasons prior to 1876. Now lets look at a Random Debut league that started in 1984 and stops in 1994 Dale Ennis had 260 hits in 1994. This was achieved by Ennis in his rookie season in which he hit .390 with 69 doubles. In real life, Ennis hit .313 with 30 doubles. 4 total players have reached 252-259 hits in a single season Enos Cabell -259 Willie Mays -257 Rudy Law - 257 Cecil Travis - 252 8 total players have reached 240-248 hits in a single season 15 total players have reached 230-239 hits in a single season Entire history of baseball 40 players between 230-262 hits in a single season. That's every season excluding seasons prior to 1876. OOTP18 random debut league starting in 1984 and running through 1994, 11 seasons, 28 players between 230-260. Why do players get so many hits using OOTP18? Please don't put league totals into play, as they don't explain the 28 players over 11 seasons compared to 40 players during the entire 100+ year history of baseball. Not smart enough to know the answer, but something is clearly wrong.

01-27-2018, 10:48 AM	#6
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Fictional league 1984-1994 12 total players from 230-244 total hits in a season 5 players 240 to 244 7 players 230-238 Now I will do a straight historical no, random debut for the same period.

01-27-2018, 12:28 PM	#7
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Now let's look at a straight historical---non random debut Same years 1984 -1994. 1 year recalc, development off Total hits for a season 277 Andres Galarraga 1993. Andres hit .407 .429OBP. In real life he hit .370 in 1993 but only played in 120 games. 1993 OOTP he plays in 160 games. He gets 211 more OOTP at bats than he did in real life and uses them to get 103 hits. Hmmm .488? 262 Don Mattingly 1984. Mattingly hit .381. .420OBP. Real life he hit .343, .383 OBP. 687 OOTP at bats vs 603 real life. 262 OOTP hits, 207 real life. 55 more hits in the 84 extra at bats, .655. 261 Wade Boggs 1985. Boggs hit .421, .509 OBP. In real life Boggs hit .368, .450 OBP. 620 OOTP at bats(he walked 113 times compared to 96 real life) vs 653 real life at bats. 261 OOTP hits vs 240 real life 244 Andres Galarraga 240 Don Mattingly 240 Steve Sax 15 total batter with 230-239 hits in a season 21 total OOTP batters in a straight historical that runs 11 years get 230-277 hits over a season. Again 40 players have hits in a season totaling between 230-262 from 1877-2017.

01-27-2018, 12:46 PM	#8
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	OOTP16 random debut starting in 1947 and just finished 1964. 18 year league. 1 year recalc "automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy." Hits for a season 233 Hal Chase, 1956. Hal hit .341, .363 OBP 228 Hank Aaron, 1961. Aaron hit .342, .369 OBP 220 Vada Pinson, 1961. Pinson hit .334, .371 OBP It then drops all the way to 213, Starling Marte 1949 So 18 years 1 player above 230, with 233. Want to hear something really cool? From 1947-1964 the most hits a real life MLB player got in a real MLB season was 230 by Tommy Davis in 1962. Hmmmmm!

01-27-2018, 03:18 PM	#10
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,523	Believe it or not, I don't think I ever ran a long-term sim during beta testing for OOTP18. However, I used to run them at least once during beta testing for previous versions. I can't remember seeing results run this "hot" before.

01-27-2018, 03:22 PM	#12
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,523	Hornsby: .416 Heilmann: .459

01-27-2018, 03:58 PM	#14
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Thinking there needs to be a Great in front of that Pumpkin Charlie Brown

01-29-2018, 09:18 PM	#17
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,995 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Here is the 277 hit season. As you can see .370 was too pedestrian.

01-29-2018, 11:25 PM	#18
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,523	RobC shared a homegrown program that compares sim stats and real stats after simming a season. The output shows whether sim stats fell one, two, or three standard deviations from real life stats. If you’re interested, I could find the program and share it (as RobC was always pleased to do).

01-30-2018, 12:22 AM	#19
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,523	http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...56&postcount=1