Does this game hate closers?

[Cobra Mgr]

I don't care how good the closer is, mine always ends up w/a +5 ERA. 4.5 tops. I've noticed other name closers get the same results.

[Number4]

Selective perception. You don't notice all the closers with a good ERA, but every time someone got lit up you go "aha!"

Remeber that CL have a small sample size and therefore their ERA will fluctuate more than a starter.

If some modifiers would be funky, it would affect all pitchers.

[slugger922cubs]

In general ERA is a very poor stat to judge relievers. Small IP samples tend to inflate ERA numbers on one bad outing. Look at thinks like WPA, FIP, and K/9.

[Marsupilami]

my elite closers generally perform as expected, certainly not 5+ ERA`s.

[MrBojangles]

It does seem that I go several years/seasons between having a closer that is truly a "shut-down" sort of guy.
I thought the whole purpose of having a closer was for that "insurance" to save the win. So, maybe ERA isn't the best measure, but, selective perception or not, it is really hard to get a reliable closer.

[One Post Wonder]

Do you have enough pitchers on your staff? Are your starters eating enough innings?

Maybe he's being overused and therefore ineffective because the bullpen is exhausted all the time.

[The Game]

I've Had relatively good success with CL in my 2 main leagues. Granted one is a cvlone of Billy Wagner and the other is an edited player but once he reached the end of his edits he become better.

[Cobra Mgr]

I did some deeper investigating. Comparing rl to the sims. It appears part of the problem is "confirmation bias" on my part. I went back & looked at past seasons & I haven't had as hard a problem as I at first thought. However, the bsv's are happening at a slightly higher rate, though not as bad as I was thinking. I looked at some top closers in the editor page & saw a few for some reason had high numbers for balks or wild pitches. Like 25 balks or 100+wp for 550 BF. So I cut those down. I have no idea what would be normal, but I'm pretty sure 25 balks for one team the entire year would be high.

We'll see what kind of affect it will have.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by One Post Wonder

Do you have enough pitchers on your staff? Are your starters eating enough innings?

Maybe he's being overused and therefore ineffective because the bullpen is exhausted all the time.

No. That isn't the problem. I always have one reliever that the computer seems to think should only be used in an emergency. They may not reach 15 IP for the year.

[NoOne]

do you have ratings relative to position? it's possible under this setting that he may not be as good as you think...

what's the league average ERA? if it's significantly higher than 3.8-4.3 range, 5era may not be bad. (sounds like this is not hte case, but throwing it out there) need to know baseline to know if it's high or low... otherwise it's just an average with no reference as to what it means.

anyway, if really curious, check his editor #'s with comish mode on... those aren't wrong, nor relative to anything. the estimated results are likely better than you can expect... but again that all depends on your league's averages for various stats over infinity.

beside that stuff, it could be how you perceive and evaluate RP. if you always have bad RP, it's likely you (not being mean, i say the same things to myself when spurred by bad results to change a behaviour). you can't keep doing the same things and expect different results...

Ratings (accurate ones) will be the best indicator -- most of the time. with pitchers it gets murkier than batters, but still strong correlation. in addition....

pitch selection matters!!

fb/sinker? crap... 2 fb-type, avoid them... can some be okay? sure. but, like a 2-pitch pitcher they tend to be very up-and-down with results in my experience. i've seen a 200+ 2 fb guy do okay before.. but he also put up alot of stinkers too... where as the RP that i like and have lesser ratings than that guy are considerably more consistent players.

never focus soley on ratings that are an aggregate of many things - a la Overall and potential... same reasons, same logical reasoning. Contact for batters is this way, too... and basicalyl everything with pitchers is that way.

the ratings will look good, but the results won't match expectation from those ratings. every pitch has it's own profile. some induce gb more... some fb... some a higher babip, some a lower... some better vs L, and some vs R... etc etc..

also, since handedness is not 50/50, that's a big deal in some cases. it does not "even out" as they say... lol.

Since the previous is true, it means lefties face fewer of the same handed batters and therefore receive more of a negative effect than a positive effect as compared to Righties - if used non-loogy.

A lefty that is used in all situations needs pitches that are good against righty batters, otherwise they will underperform for sure. in the past i avoided them (mostly a lefty SP, unless superbly rated), but realized it's mostly pitch selection as to why some LHP really suck compared to their ratings, while some SP perform as expected within a range of results. i've generally had great luck with LRP, but they typically have really good pitches, so it's hard to compare to what i see with SP.

So.... pitchers are simply a pain to evaluate. not to mention they already have a hefty amount of volatility in results from year-to-year... and RP are even more insane than SP in this regard. using their yearly stats is very unspecific in what it tells you, especially for an RP.

i'd look at some existing RP or retired RP in your league that had success for a sustained period of time - even if a bad year or 2 crops up on occasion. any similarities? that's the type of RP you want to look for.

same with perpetually poor results from highly rated players- any similarities? Those are the type of RP you want to avoid.

for a young guy with little track record, know what luck looks like ... when i see a bad year i look to see if there's a cause for it... too many hr compared to his career average? high babip? etc... an RP has 1 or 2 really bad games and that's a +.50 ERA at the end, lol.

Game Logs!! another excellent tool for assessing an RP... a guy with a 4+era but 1/2 of that comes from a handful of games played... that's not a bad 4.00ERA releiver. that's just bad luck - at least better than 50/50.

[actionjackson]

Check this dude out. He appears to have wrapped up his bullpen career for now and moved to LF. Recalc in random debut historicals is a many splendoured thing I guess. 6 All-Star games, 4 Reliever of the Year awards, 3 2nd place Reliever of the Year finishes, and one third place finish in 8 seasons. Wow! Never lower than third place against all his former relief pitcher peers. I guess they're happy for the change. They've got a chance to get their hands on some hardware now. It is still only sample size of 1, but goodness what a one he is.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

No. That isn't the problem. I always have one reliever that the computer seems to think should only be used in an emergency. They may not reach 15 IP for the year.

That drives me crazy too but it's a subset of a bigger issue where the AI refuses to use relief pitchers according to the staff settings I make. I feel lucky when the AI agrees with me.

I've literally had to trade good RP and closer types with perfectly good ratings and stats because they sit for 8-10 days while the AI overuses marginal pitchers with poor results and stats in roles they are not suitable for.

Probably the single most annoying thing the AI does when a human player controls a team.

[NoOne]

hmm, something must be in the setup that causes this..... i'm making an assumption this is common and and clearly usurping your wishes in the depth chart. if not, nevermind. this isn't in reference to how the AI did somethign in 1 game once in a while:

i don't see that behaviour - in any shape or form. only if they are set as the same will the ai choose it's favorite over my preference (like 2 "use more" - the ai's choice will play more). i have zero problem alotting innings of use with the depth chart. the guys i want pitching 15-20innings are the ones pitching 15-20innings and no one else (*same with more use, too).

when that crops up (ai likes 1 of 2 given same depth chart designations, and that guy isn't my preference), i manipulate it a little to maximize the innings of the rp i prefer. works like a charm without fail. i do this regularly. so, something is causing this behaviour difference.

i use GM-Legacy mode. Maybe that is why i don't see the problems that you see??

no matter how crappy the player (ai looks at ai eval overall maybe individual ratings too? so, crappy relative to he the AI perceives them), i can put them as setup or use more, while others are used less then him as intended, and he will get more innings. i am GM-only, not a coach in the game. it's not somethign i do often, but i can recall one drastic difference in ratings:

*as low as upper-50's/80 playing over a high 70's/80 that the ai would normally pick first - and does if i let them setup the staff... anyway i had him leading the pen in innings (not the closer) each year i had him. i let him go because i thought it was luck relative to his ratings that could not persist... and it continued for a solid career afterward, too. i was wrong.

this cat was insane relative to ratings... all i can say to describe it... even if he fell off a bit after the first 5 years or so, he was still a really good SU/CL bullpen arm.

as always my ratings are absolute and never relative. possibly a cause? not as likely but you should look into multiple thigns and change them one at a time until you see the AI behaviour change. it's definitely localized, because i gaurantee it doesn't happen as you describe when i play the game.

if it's a common thing, i don't think it's a bug, i think it's something in your setup.