Compensation Pick Madness

[JMDurron]

Through the funny convergence of the newer MLB Compensation Pick rules, my league's evolving financials, overpowered MLB Draft classes in older OOTP versions, and the various AI and financial model updates over the last few OOTP versions, my MLB Quickstart League just hit the peak of Comp Pick Insanity in my 2026-2027 offseason.

36 Comp Picks, all in the same offseason. I don't think this is actually an AI or financial model problem in OOTP 17, in fact I think it's the logical end point from all the factors I mentioned above.

So...has anyone else generated one offseason of such pulse-pounding free agent movement? The net WAR change in my league of 32 teams (San Antonio and Jacksonville expansion teams in 2026) has averaged out to be relatively sane under the circumstances, with the biggest improvement at 7.4 WAR, with the worst altered team at -15.6 WAR.

[BigRed75]

At first, I thought you meant that your team had 36 compensatory picks...

[JMDurron]

No, my team only had 1 of them.

I had to let my first ever #1 draft pick, after 13 years of studly service on my team, go to the Rockies. He's heading into his age 36 season, is a liability defensively, and is in offensive decline, but it still hurt a little bit on the inside. I couldn't justify giving him $21.4M per year on a 2-year deal, though. 21st on the all-time MLB career WAR list, and #1 all-time in MLB in the following postseason stats:

G, AB, R, H, TB, 1B, 2B, BB.

[Habsfan18]

I've noticed this is a big issue for me as well in OOTP 17 since release day.

I'd say my leagues average around 25-30 compensentory picks each draft.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by JMDurron

36 Comp Picks, all in the same offseason. I don't think this is actually an AI or financial model problem in OOTP 17, in fact I think it's the logical end point from all the factors I mentioned above.

It is an AI or financial model problem. It's one area OOTP has never had right, under the old comp system, and under the new one. There are way too many comp picks no matter how you set up your league. I report this on beta every year, things normally get adjusted, but then a lot of other things are changed too and this issue never seems to see much progress. I think there are two problems: too many players overestimate their market value, and decline a Qualifying Offer they ought to have accepted (that should happen, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales did, but it shouldn't happen often), and I think, though have never confirmed with data, that star players more often extend with their own team in real life than in OOTP. With more star free agents, you have more comp picks. That's a harder problem to solve because it boils down to how much money AI teams have offer extensions, so to fix it, you need to code the AI so it's sometimes setting aside a full $20m or $25m budget room to extend it's star players.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by injury log

It is an AI or financial model problem. It's one area OOTP has never had right, under the old comp system, and under the new one. There are way too many comp picks no matter how you set up your league. I report this on beta every year, things normally get adjusted, but then a lot of other things are changed too and this issue never seems to see much progress. I think there are two problems: too many players overestimate their market value, and decline a Qualifying Offer they ought to have accepted (that should happen, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales did, but it shouldn't happen often), and I think, though have never confirmed with data, that star players more often extend with their own team in real life than in OOTP. With more star free agents, you have more comp picks. That's a harder problem to solve because it boils down to how much money AI teams have offer extensions, so to fix it, you need to code the AI so it's sometimes setting aside a full $20m or $25m budget room to extend it's star players.

The bolded is why I suppose I gave OOTP a pass, due to the following factors in my league's universe:

1 - Having started in OOTP12, my MLB Quckstart league is populated with tons of uber-draftees from the OOTP12 and OOTP13 Draft Class Talent structure, so I'm already starting with an excess of star players from a talent level standpoint, even if their relative stats aren't outlandish. I see a fair number of contract extensions throughout each season, so while I haven't (and probably won't, as I'm lazy most of the time) done a real study on the subject, I haven't detected an issue with any lack of contract extensions being offered to stars.

2 - Once I had achieved many of my own team's talent goals throughout my organization (all organic team, #1 rank in all top 10 categories team, entire system winning championship in the same year, etc.), I started targeting the financial side of my opponents - first within the division, then in general. I wanted my players to excel at the individual career level, so starving opposing clubs of the resources necessary to get/keep players that could get them out/hit them was the logical next step. As a result, the rest of the league is not very flush with cash, although I happen to be just from the legacy of old OOTP exploits, like trading draft picks for ridiculous piles of cash (AI would trade $10M straight up for a 2nd or 3rd round pick...when combined with waiver wire pickup trades, this was a powerful weapon).

I have noticed that most star FAs seem to sign very short term deals, but still at large dollar values. I'm wondering if this is causing a phenomenon where an excessive number of star players are all hitting FA in the same offseason, but are still making enough $ in annual salary to make rejecting the Comp Offer a logical decision. On top of the talent level in my league, that could help explain the explosion in Comp eligible FAs.