Andrew Miller Not Good?

ManOfRoses · 07-21-2016, 12:05 PM

I've simulated a season with Andrew Miller on my team and consistently he has had an ERA over 4 when he should be around 2. Why is that?

Padreman · 07-21-2016, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManOfRoses

I've simulated a season with Andrew Miller on my team and consistently he has had an ERA over 4 when he should be around 2. Why is that?

Sorry had to ask but why SHOULD he have an ERA of 2?
Don't players in real life have bad seasons too?

Lukas Berger · 07-21-2016, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

Sorry had to ask but why SHOULD he have an ERA of 2?
Don't players in real life have bad seasons too?

This is a good point, but I think ManOfRoses has a point as well. He was a bit underrated by ZIPS in the roster set.

I adjusted his ratings, in the next patch he should perform a bit more accurately, though as mentioned, he may still have a bad year on occasion just through randomness.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 07-21-2016, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

Sorry had to ask but why SHOULD he have an ERA of 2?
Don't players in real life have bad seasons too?

No, never.

Number4 · 07-21-2016, 10:04 PM

Saying that results like this could have happened IRL does kill any legitimate discussion about a player under/overperforming. There is whining because of "the game engine rated the player down while in real life he went up, how couldn't you predict that?" and there are legitimate complaints about a guy consistently ending up below the level he should have by a reasonable guess been. One season is a small sample size though, you'd need to run quite a lot. Especially as people tend to notice great and bad results, and ignore all those in between.

BBGiovanni · 07-21-2016, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Number4

One season is a small sample size though, you'd need to run quite a lot. Especially as people tend to notice great and bad results, and ignore all those in between.

Which is magnified like 1000x with relievers, because by definition (assuming modern era settings) they pitch relatively little in any one season. Plus the natural (at least with me) tendency to get frustrated with a guy after several disaster outings. It's always worth remembering that a guy SHOULD regress to the mean, eventually. The problem is waiting for that to happen

Which is neither here nor there as regards Miller's ratings in game, which it sounds like were a little off.

diamondparoxysm · 07-22-2016, 12:42 AM

I've noticed this with Starling Marte too from the many sims I've done. I don't have a problem with it. Most of his predictable value comes from baserunning & defense. His hitting depends on BABIP because he has a far below average walk tendency & league average K tendency.

07-21-2016, 12:05 PM	#1
ManOfRoses Bat Boy Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 1	Andrew Miller Not Good? I've simulated a season with Andrew Miller on my team and consistently he has had an ERA over 4 when he should be around 2. Why is that?

07-21-2016, 10:04 PM	#5
Number4 Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 460	Saying that results like this could have happened IRL does kill any legitimate discussion about a player under/overperforming. There is whining because of "the game engine rated the player down while in real life he went up, how couldn't you predict that?" and there are legitimate complaints about a guy consistently ending up below the level he should have by a reasonable guess been. One season is a small sample size though, you'd need to run quite a lot. Especially as people tend to notice great and bad results, and ignore all those in between. __________________ "Odor is now 2 for 5 today" (Commentator, after Rougned Odor, up to then 1 for 4, punched Jose Bautista square in the face.)

07-22-2016, 12:42 AM	#7
diamondparoxysm Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 58	I've noticed this with Starling Marte too from the many sims I've done. I don't have a problem with it. Most of his predictable value comes from baserunning & defense. His hitting depends on BABIP because he has a far below average walk tendency & league average K tendency.