Ruth-style Freak Outliers in Fictional Historical Leagues

MightyVotto · 06-15-2016, 09:33 AM

I've never been able to get much into fictional play. However, I'm always intrigued by it. One reason for this is that I don't really see the freak, outlier type of players as we saw in real life with Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc. in the 20s and 30s.

I'd love to create a fictional historical league that begins in 1901. However, when I've tried this and quickly simmed through a few decades, I don't see surprising players who just blow everyone away. Everyone basically sticks to a bell-curve. There are 4 or 5 really good players who hit 20ish HRs. They may a season or two get to 30. You never see the 50 or 60 HR guys like we did with Ruth, Foxx, or Greenberg. You don't even get the guys like Gehrig or Dimaggio who could regularly hit 40.

I've seen the explanation on these boards that the system is spreading the HR's out throughout the entire league as opposed to having just a select few who could hit the majority of them as we saw in reality for this time. That makes sense, but it's kinda boring. I'd like to be surprised a little more in what results I get. Now, I know that someone will hit 20ish HR's and do other limits with stats. I don't have any expectation that a Ruth will appear and excitingly shake up the league.

Are there settings I should be using to make this happen? I haven't been able to figure that out. Or should there be some tweak to player creation in future versions that allows for the occasional freak outlier to emerge?

David Watts · 06-15-2016, 09:37 AM

Glad I'm not the only one.

NoOne · 06-15-2016, 12:03 PM

create a much large descrepancy between the guys who historically could hit more and those that didn't.

this won't be an easy task. not only will you need to raise and lower power of all the playes in the league (not somethign you can do through PCM), you'll have to adjust the contact rating back to where it was before you changed the power - on each player.

settings won't cut it for what you want to do. it would require a tailored response. but, you could create a parabolic curve through changing the ratings to a particularly odd distribution that the game would never create on its own.

one other possible factor for fictional before 2016:
this was after patch 2 or 3 (the one that mentions it fixes what i am about to explain)... but as of then the game was still allowing years before 2016 to influence outcome even if the settings were set to allow purely fictional results. this was supposedly fixed, but i continued to see it's affects while testing some LTM. i had to quit starting my sim decades early.... not a problem i intended to start in 2016 anyway. the league was created in 1901. i wasn't paying attnetion early... but after i turnedover the players in the league and tweaked a bit... 1961 was the start date until i saw statistically significant shifts in results after 2016.

OakDragon · 06-15-2016, 02:19 PM

This is something I'd kind of like to see, too, now that you mention it, though I pretty much only play fictional.

In historical OOTP, you're getting a league which changes the modifiers every season to match historical output, some of which vary drastically from one another (deadball era compared to steroid era, etc.). In fictional, you choose one year on which to base the "average" statistics for the lifetime of the league so there is not as much variation. I'd love to see a setting where you could play fictional with modifiers that change randomly from year to year.

cavebutter · 06-15-2016, 03:06 PM

I noticed this as well. It was only in my current universe where I had a player lead the league with 71 HR and the next closest was 43.

David Watts · 06-15-2016, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OakDragon

This is something I'd kind of like to see, too, now that you mention it, though I pretty much only play fictional.

In historical OOTP, you're getting a league which changes the modifiers every season to match historical output, some of which vary drastically from one another (deadball era compared to steroid era, etc.). In fictional, you choose one year on which to base the "average" statistics for the lifetime of the league so there is not as much variation. I'd love to see a setting where you could play fictional with modifiers that change randomly from year to year.

I still say it would be so cool if OOTP came with the option to pick a time period you want your game to be a part of, for example 1970-1984, and once your league begins OOTP would randomly choose from that time period what season it uses for the modifiers. I've never been brave enough try the more offense less offense setting that are a part of dynamic league evolution out of fear that my league would all of a sudden resemble the McGwire -Sosa years with a little dash of Brett Boone. 70-84 would provide variety, but in a controlled sort of way.

The Game · 06-15-2016, 06:50 PM

i use historical modifiers in my aBF league and while i do import historical players like Ruth who hit 1121 HR (was a SP until age 31) I do see some great players every decade. Arnout Smulders hit 79 HR one year. Ruth holds the top 3 single season records. Jesus Burgos dominated from 1962-1970 like Koufax. Now in the steroid era I am seeing 12-15 players hit 50+ HR per season.
I do agree as a general rule fictional players offensively dont put up the #'s that real players have. My HOFhas more real players then fictional and all the real players own the leaderboards. Cobb is a .409 lifetime hitter.

NoOne · 06-15-2016, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

i use historical modifiers in my aBF league and while i do import historical players like Ruth who hit 1121 HR (was a SP until age 31) I do see some great players every decade. Arnout Smulders hit 79 HR one year. Ruth holds the top 3 single season records. Jesus Burgos dominated from 1962-1970 like Koufax. Now in the steroid era I am seeing 12-15 players hit 50+ HR per season.
I do agree as a general rule fictional players offensively dont put up the #'s that real players have. My HOFhas more real players then fictional and all the real players own the leaderboards. Cobb is a .409 lifetime hitter.

in the fictional leagues:

bump the LTMs. if i recall, my est. slash is .256/.319/.398 or so on the stats and ai settings screen... i see HR totals get into the 600's, but only a few players in 100 years frequency. single year totals don't require longevity, but 50 is quite difficult to hit... 60 takes luck or extreme talent over a good bit of time.

in '16, with similar stats, i saw a player get to 700. there seems to be more talent than in years past at the top of the distribution curve. i think it's gotten tougher this year for peak numbers, but i could be wrong.

bump the numbers to .405 slugging or something and you'll see really good power numbers.

The Game · 06-16-2016, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

in the fictional leagues:

bump the LTMs. if i recall, my est. slash is .256/.319/.398 or so on the stats and ai settings screen... i see HR totals get into the 600's, but only a few players in 100 years frequency. single year totals don't require longevity, but 50 is quite difficult to hit... 60 takes luck or extreme talent over a good bit of time.

in '16, with similar stats, i saw a player get to 700. there seems to be more talent than in years past at the top of the distribution curve. i think it's gotten tougher this year for peak numbers, but i could be wrong.

bump the numbers to .405 slugging or something and you'll see really good power numbers.

I forgot to mention i use neutralized stats which seem to inflate the #'s of the HOFer.

NoOne · 06-16-2016, 11:27 AM

I just mean tune it differently for the fictional players. whatever the difference is, you can account for it for a great amount of it through LTMs. then, your fictional players will be similar to your real players of the past.

during transition or if through settings it's always a mixed bag... obviously this doesn't apply.

06-15-2016, 09:33 AM	#1
MightyVotto Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 127	Ruth-style Freak Outliers in Fictional Historical Leagues I've never been able to get much into fictional play. However, I'm always intrigued by it. One reason for this is that I don't really see the freak, outlier type of players as we saw in real life with Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc. in the 20s and 30s. I'd love to create a fictional historical league that begins in 1901. However, when I've tried this and quickly simmed through a few decades, I don't see surprising players who just blow everyone away. Everyone basically sticks to a bell-curve. There are 4 or 5 really good players who hit 20ish HRs. They may a season or two get to 30. You never see the 50 or 60 HR guys like we did with Ruth, Foxx, or Greenberg. You don't even get the guys like Gehrig or Dimaggio who could regularly hit 40. I've seen the explanation on these boards that the system is spreading the HR's out throughout the entire league as opposed to having just a select few who could hit the majority of them as we saw in reality for this time. That makes sense, but it's kinda boring. I'd like to be surprised a little more in what results I get. Now, I know that someone will hit 20ish HR's and do other limits with stats. I don't have any expectation that a Ruth will appear and excitingly shake up the league. Are there settings I should be using to make this happen? I haven't been able to figure that out. Or should there be some tweak to player creation in future versions that allows for the occasional freak outlier to emerge?

06-15-2016, 12:03 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	create a much large descrepancy between the guys who historically could hit more and those that didn't. this won't be an easy task. not only will you need to raise and lower power of all the playes in the league (not somethign you can do through PCM), you'll have to adjust the contact rating back to where it was before you changed the power - on each player. settings won't cut it for what you want to do. it would require a tailored response. but, you could create a parabolic curve through changing the ratings to a particularly odd distribution that the game would never create on its own. one other possible factor for fictional before 2016: this was after patch 2 or 3 (the one that mentions it fixes what i am about to explain)... but as of then the game was still allowing years before 2016 to influence outcome even if the settings were set to allow purely fictional results. this was supposedly fixed, but i continued to see it's affects while testing some LTM. i had to quit starting my sim decades early.... not a problem i intended to start in 2016 anyway. the league was created in 1901. i wasn't paying attnetion early... but after i turnedover the players in the league and tweaked a bit... 1961 was the start date until i saw statistically significant shifts in results after 2016. Last edited by NoOne; 06-15-2016 at 12:07 PM.

06-15-2016, 03:06 PM	#5
cavebutter All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 1,163	I noticed this as well. It was only in my current universe where I had a player lead the league with 71 HR and the next closest was 43. __________________ MySQL, MyStruggle - A self-indulgent blog about my attempts to roll my own MySQL Database with OOTP Logo Gallery

06-15-2016, 06:50 PM	#7
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	i use historical modifiers in my aBF league and while i do import historical players like Ruth who hit 1121 HR (was a SP until age 31) I do see some great players every decade. Arnout Smulders hit 79 HR one year. Ruth holds the top 3 single season records. Jesus Burgos dominated from 1962-1970 like Koufax. Now in the steroid era I am seeing 12-15 players hit 50+ HR per season. I do agree as a general rule fictional players offensively dont put up the #'s that real players have. My HOFhas more real players then fictional and all the real players own the leaderboards. Cobb is a .409 lifetime hitter. Attached Images __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

06-15-2016, 09:37 AM	#2
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 10,139 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Glad I'm not the only one.

06-15-2016, 02:19 PM	#4
OakDragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: San Jose, CA USA Posts: 3,494	This is something I'd kind of like to see, too, now that you mention it, though I pretty much only play fictional. In historical OOTP, you're getting a league which changes the modifiers every season to match historical output, some of which vary drastically from one another (deadball era compared to steroid era, etc.). In fictional, you choose one year on which to base the "average" statistics for the lifetime of the league so there is not as much variation. I'd love to see a setting where you could play fictional with modifiers that change randomly from year to year.

06-16-2016, 11:27 AM	#10
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	I just mean tune it differently for the fictional players. whatever the difference is, you can account for it for a great amount of it through LTMs. then, your fictional players will be similar to your real players of the past. during transition or if through settings it's always a mixed bag... obviously this doesn't apply.