Now that's interesting

Germaniac · 06-01-2016, 04:35 PM

I would have expected something else to be the turning point in the ballgame

grmagne · 06-01-2016, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Germaniac

I would have expected something else to be the turning point in the ballgame

You found an interesting bug there. I'm sure that would have been an important walk if Rodriguez hadn't immediately grounded into a double play in the next at bat. Looks like Rodriguez atoned in the 5th inning though.

Number4 · 06-01-2016, 05:50 PM

I see your walk and raise you a strikeout:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ctive-bat.html

Germaniac · 06-02-2016, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Number4

I see your walk and raise you a strikeout:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ctive-bat.html

Okay, you beat me there

Germaniac · 06-03-2016, 03:58 PM

Here we go again - what about the 5th inning tie-breaking HR ?

NoOne · 06-03-2016, 05:24 PM

it doesn't show important moments, per se, it merely shows probability of winning from either team given the # of outs left etc etc.

edit: ah you are speaking of the text description, nm.

BigRed75 · 06-03-2016, 07:28 PM

That one I can at least see. To get to three runs, you must first get two, and if you look at the win probability graph, that single was the point where the line went (and stayed) into Acapulco's half of the graph.

But yeah, from a logical standpoint, a game-winning hit seems more worthy of a mention than a game-tying one, if you only mention one. And it's not like Drexel was 4-for-4 and one of those happened to be the tying hit. It was his only hit of the game. Seems like Obafemi should have been singled out for praise before Drexel.

But from a purely probability standpoint, I can see why the single was chosen.

Bub13 · 06-03-2016, 08:21 PM

The game sees into the hearts of men and knows that that single was indeed the moment when the Defenders knew that all was lost.

Germaniac · 06-04-2016, 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

it doesn't show important moments, per se, it merely shows probability of winning from either team given the # of outs left etc etc.

edit: ah you are speaking of the text description, nm.

I didn't notice that before, but that seems to be how this works ... with the two runs in the 4th the win probability swung in Acapulco's favor, so that's what the game recognized as game-changing, while we humans obviously would have selected Obafemi's HR, especially since Drexel only went 1-for-4.

Number4 · 06-04-2016, 09:18 AM

Was he having defensively a great day?
My linked "productive at-bat" thread had a run-scoring strikeout from my starter, who got player of the day for 7 innings of 1-run ball. Therefore, his batting "performance" was singled out over more successful batters.

NoOne · 06-05-2016, 09:14 PM

win probability isn't about a player's success during the game. it's all about ability to score runs (either by team or league average) relative to number of outs left. i don't know how sophisticated it is as far as neutralizing for parks and individuals that are playing for each team at the moment etc etc.... regardless, it's all the same logic at play

as events occur, then the probability changes. down 3 runs with zero outs isn't eh same as down 3 runs with 3 on and zero outs... but if both instances end in no runs at the end of the inning, the 2 situations described will be back to the same probability -- same lead, same # of outs (same 2 teams and all other things the same).

the text description is just a possible poor choice by the logic that constructs and english description of what is happening or whatever.... maybe it's actually the best choice in this case, i didn't read into it. this type of stuff always has quirks. i'm glad i don't read much of it

06-01-2016, 04:35 PM	#1
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,101	Now that's interesting I would have expected something else to be the turning point in the ballgame Attached Images __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

06-01-2016, 05:50 PM	#3
Number4 Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 460	I see your walk and raise you a strikeout: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ctive-bat.html __________________ "Odor is now 2 for 5 today" (Commentator, after Rougned Odor, up to then 1 for 4, punched Jose Bautista square in the face.)

06-03-2016, 03:58 PM	#5
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,101	Here we go again - what about the 5th inning tie-breaking HR ? Attached Images __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

06-03-2016, 05:24 PM	#6
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	it doesn't show important moments, per se, it merely shows probability of winning from either team given the # of outs left etc etc. edit: ah you are speaking of the text description, nm. Last edited by NoOne; 06-03-2016 at 05:26 PM.

06-03-2016, 07:28 PM	#7
BigRed75 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,423	That one I can at least see. To get to three runs, you must first get two, and if you look at the win probability graph, that single was the point where the line went (and stayed) into Acapulco's half of the graph. But yeah, from a logical standpoint, a game-winning hit seems more worthy of a mention than a game-tying one, if you only mention one. And it's not like Drexel was 4-for-4 and one of those happened to be the tying hit. It was his only hit of the game. Seems like Obafemi should have been singled out for praise before Drexel. But from a purely probability standpoint, I can see why the single was chosen. __________________ Mainline team SPTT team Was not a Snag fan...until I saw the fallout once he was gone and realized what a good job he was actually doing. - Ty Cobb

06-03-2016, 08:21 PM	#8
Bub13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Maine Posts: 748	The game sees into the hearts of men and knows that that single was indeed the moment when the Defenders knew that all was lost.

06-04-2016, 09:18 AM	#10
Number4 Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 460	Was he having defensively a great day? My linked "productive at-bat" thread had a run-scoring strikeout from my starter, who got player of the day for 7 innings of 1-run ball. Therefore, his batting "performance" was singled out over more successful batters. __________________ "Odor is now 2 for 5 today" (Commentator, after Rougned Odor, up to then 1 for 4, punched Jose Bautista square in the face.)

06-05-2016, 09:14 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	win probability isn't about a player's success during the game. it's all about ability to score runs (either by team or league average) relative to number of outs left. i don't know how sophisticated it is as far as neutralizing for parks and individuals that are playing for each team at the moment etc etc.... regardless, it's all the same logic at play as events occur, then the probability changes. down 3 runs with zero outs isn't eh same as down 3 runs with 3 on and zero outs... but if both instances end in no runs at the end of the inning, the 2 situations described will be back to the same probability -- same lead, same # of outs (same 2 teams and all other things the same). the text description is just a possible poor choice by the logic that constructs and english description of what is happening or whatever.... maybe it's actually the best choice in this case, i didn't read into it. this type of stuff always has quirks. i'm glad i don't read much of it Last edited by NoOne; 06-05-2016 at 09:17 PM.