Does AI Punish Bye Week?

BKL · 01-28-2016, 11:49 PM

I know in real life a bye week might not be a good thing for a team. In my fictional league, however, the team with the best league record gets a bye and automatically advances to the league championship. The next two best teams face off in a best of seven with the winner advancing to the league championship.

It seems like the team with the bye week struggles in the first few games of the league championship. I'm wondering if there is any disadvantage in game to having a bye week. I tested this league in a test run and didn't see any issue, but now that I'm playing games out I had a team twice advance to having a bye week only to lose the championship series. Probably just within statistical norms but thought I'd ask others opinion.

Overall the goal is to give the team with the best league record an advantage. I think automatic advancement to the league championship should do that.

Orcin · 01-29-2016, 10:54 AM

There will be a least one day of "rust" for every week off. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

JMDurron · 01-29-2016, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

There will be a least one day of "rust" for every week off. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

This seems reasonable to me - rust doesn't guarantee defeat, but we have seen something like this happen in the real world at least once. After going on insane hot streak through the end of the regular season and NL rounds of the postseason to make the World Series, the 2007 Rockies sat around and waited for 9 days for the World Series, while the Red Sox won a 7-game ALCS. The Red Sox proceeded to pummel them in Game 1 of the World Series (13-1), and went on to sweep the series.

Game 1 was the only blowout, and the Red Sox were somewhat obviously the better roster that year, but it seems reasonable to point to rust as a factor (not the only one) in the Rockies' Game 1 performance. I think OOTP models this well if there's a 1 week = 1 rust day equivalent effect.

David Watts · 01-29-2016, 11:54 AM

I think the biggest roadblock the bye setup is can you accept the team with the best record losing their series without thinking it's entirely due to rust. I couldn't, so moved back to a more traditional setup. But, I probably didn't give the bye option a long enough go, to really make a true determination. Might be a cool thing to test with a fast sim.

BKL · 01-29-2016, 05:52 PM

OK, I have a small sample size, but would like some opinions on what this may mean. My fictional league has completed 6 season with two leagues each. This means there are 12 "spots" to advance to the World Series. Keep in mind the whole point is to provide an advantage to the team with the best league record by giving them an automatic advancement to the League Championship.

Out of 12 possible spots in the last 6 seasons to advance to the World Series, 6 teams advanced that were in fact the best in their league, 5 teams advanced that were 2nd best in their league, and only 1 team advanced that was 3rd best.

Interestingly, of the six World Series matchups played thus far, 3 winners had the best record in the entire MLB, 2 winners had the 2nd best record in the entire MLB, and 1 winner had the 3rd best record in all of MLB.

Based on these stats, I think I'm pretty happy with the results. My goals is to have a playoff system that tends to favor the better regular season teams and it seems to have done that.

I'd be interested in other people's opinion, however.

NoOne · 01-29-2016, 06:28 PM

this was quoted from: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ayer-rust.html

post #15

"Rust is olny applied in two cases: 1) Coming back from a longer injury (14+ days, the longer the more rust) and 2) entering Spring Training. "

that was 2010. so, only if they changed something does 1 week affect anything at the end of a season.

as far as #1, is that interpretted as if the player was on the 14+ disabled list as opposed to 14days on teh 25-man and not just playing? the sentence isn't specific enough to tell.

Padreman · 01-29-2016, 08:02 PM

Stupid question how do you know a player has "Rust"? Is it that his playing is below par or does the game tell you this player has rust?

jpeters1734 · 01-29-2016, 08:51 PM

oops

Le Grande Orange · 01-30-2016, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMDurron

This seems reasonable to me - rust doesn't guarantee defeat, but we have seen something like this happen in the real world at least once. After going on insane hot streak through the end of the regular season and NL rounds of the postseason to make the World Series, the 2007 Rockies sat around and waited for 9 days for the World Series, while the Red Sox won a 7-game ALCS. The Red Sox proceeded to pummel them in Game 1 of the World Series (13-1), and went on to sweep the series.

Interestingly, a long layoff doesn't seem to hurt in the KBO. There, the first-place club gets a bye straight through to the championship, sitting out the early playoff rounds. From 1996-2015, the earlier rounds of the playoffs totaled a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 12 games, depending on the year and playoff format. Yet of those 15 seasons the first-place club, in spite of its layoff, only lost the championship twice.

01-29-2016, 06:28 PM	#6
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	this was quoted from: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ayer-rust.html post #15 "Rust is olny applied in two cases: 1) Coming back from a longer injury (14+ days, the longer the more rust) and 2) entering Spring Training. " that was 2010. so, only if they changed something does 1 week affect anything at the end of a season. as far as #1, is that interpretted as if the player was on the 14+ disabled list as opposed to 14days on teh 25-man and not just playing? the sentence isn't specific enough to tell. Last edited by NoOne; 01-29-2016 at 06:30 PM.

01-29-2016, 08:02 PM	#7
Padreman Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2013 Location: Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (formally San Diego, CA.) Posts: 4,138	Stupid question how do you know a player has "Rust"? Is it that his playing is below par or does the game tell you this player has rust? __________________ Chargers= Despicable Traitors

01-29-2016, 08:51 PM	#8
jpeters1734 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Juust a bit outside... Posts: 6,216	oops __________________ "Cannonball Coming!" Go Bucs!! Founder and League Caretaker of the Professional Baseball Circuit, www.probaseballcircuit.com An Un-Official Guide to Minor League Management in OOTP 21 Ratings Scale Conversion Cross-Reference Cheat Sheet

01-28-2016, 11:49 PM	#1
BKL All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 931	Does AI Punish Bye Week? I know in real life a bye week might not be a good thing for a team. In my fictional league, however, the team with the best league record gets a bye and automatically advances to the league championship. The next two best teams face off in a best of seven with the winner advancing to the league championship. It seems like the team with the bye week struggles in the first few games of the league championship. I'm wondering if there is any disadvantage in game to having a bye week. I tested this league in a test run and didn't see any issue, but now that I'm playing games out I had a team twice advance to having a bye week only to lose the championship series. Probably just within statistical norms but thought I'd ask others opinion. Overall the goal is to give the team with the best league record an advantage. I think automatic advancement to the league championship should do that. Last edited by BKL; 01-28-2016 at 11:51 PM.

01-29-2016, 10:54 AM	#2
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,849	There will be a least one day of "rust" for every week off. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

01-29-2016, 11:54 AM	#4
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,830 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I think the biggest roadblock the bye setup is can you accept the team with the best record losing their series without thinking it's entirely due to rust. I couldn't, so moved back to a more traditional setup. But, I probably didn't give the bye option a long enough go, to really make a true determination. Might be a cool thing to test with a fast sim.

01-29-2016, 05:52 PM	#5
BKL All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 931	OK, I have a small sample size, but would like some opinions on what this may mean. My fictional league has completed 6 season with two leagues each. This means there are 12 "spots" to advance to the World Series. Keep in mind the whole point is to provide an advantage to the team with the best league record by giving them an automatic advancement to the League Championship. Out of 12 possible spots in the last 6 seasons to advance to the World Series, 6 teams advanced that were in fact the best in their league, 5 teams advanced that were 2nd best in their league, and only 1 team advanced that was 3rd best. Interestingly, of the six World Series matchups played thus far, 3 winners had the best record in the entire MLB, 2 winners had the 2nd best record in the entire MLB, and 1 winner had the 3rd best record in all of MLB. Based on these stats, I think I'm pretty happy with the results. My goals is to have a playoff system that tends to favor the better regular season teams and it seems to have done that. I'd be interested in other people's opinion, however.