ERA vs. FIP

sreem · 08-31-2015, 10:07 AM

For all the sabers out there, if FIP is higher than ERA, what does that tell me about the pitcher in question?

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 08-31-2015, 10:14 AM

FIP means Fielding Independent Pitching. It is calculated by only taking into account home runs, strikeouts, and walks (and hit batters). If a pitcher's ERA is much lower than his FIP, it usually means that more balls that have been put into play have been turned into outs than you normally would expect. With luck, your great defense may continue, but a more likely outcome is that his ERA will increase at some point.

sreem · 08-31-2015, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

FIP means Fielding Independent Pitching. It is calculated by only taking into account home runs, strikeouts, and walks (and hit batters). If a pitcher's ERA is much lower than his FIP, it usually means that more balls that have been put into play have been turned into outs than you normally would expect. With luck, your great defense may continue, but a more likely outcome is that his ERA will increase at some point.

So the more accurate reflection of the pitchers individual ability is his FIP and not his ERA?

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 08-31-2015, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

So the more accurate reflection of the pitchers individual ability is his FIP and not his ERA?

For the most part, in OOTP. Extreme groundball pitchers with great defense behind them can sometimes break the mold.

mpbaseball22 · 08-31-2015, 10:49 AM

Yes FIP is more accurate than ERA. However I think its important to look at the HR/9 your pitcher is giving up, xFIP for some reason is not in the game but I prefer that to just FIP. If your pitcher is giving up more homeruns than usual he may have even more bad luck resulting in a high FIP when really it could be even lower

baseballonly · 08-31-2015, 11:16 AM

FIP and then look at groundball ratings. Pitchers who throw a lot of groundballs tend to have a bigger FIP>ERA gap than flyball pitchers. However, if you have a great outfield and your infield sucks, flyball pitchers may do better, especially if your park is large.

r0nster · 08-31-2015, 02:37 PM

I am too old school to deal with FIP. I glean more info about a player using OLD school information than some stat could.

aderosa32 · 08-31-2015, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0nster

I am too old school to deal with FIP. I glean more info about a player using OLD school information than some stat could.

So when using a sim like OOTP, what are some of the things you look for?

r0nster · 08-31-2015, 06:58 PM

Keeping it simple. I basically look at control to strikeouts plus home runs against. hitters I like the ones who keep strikeouts low but can hit. I don't need fancy stats to tell me something I already know LOL.

RchW · 08-31-2015, 07:22 PM

FIP is more predictive. It's not claimed to be a "smoking gun" type stat. If you lose your SS and/or CF and a good pitcher ends up with a 5.5 ERA You cannot really get anything from that. His FIP for a 3 season run where the bad ERA is season 2 will tell you more. Obviously one should look at several other numbers in all of this.

Sharkn20 · 08-31-2015, 08:22 PM

How much is a good FIP for a pitcher then?? I know ERA under 3.00 is very good, amd between 3.01 and 3.50 is acceptable with above 4.00 meanning look for someone else unless his BABIP is well over .300... But don't know about FIP values yet

RchW · 08-31-2015, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sharkn20

How much is a good FIP for a pitcher then?? I know ERA under 3.00 is very good, amd between 3.01 and 3.50 is acceptable with above 4.00 meanning look for someone else unless his BABIP is well over .300... But don't know about FIP values yet

Read Fangraphs. You will learn more than we can teach you. Check out xFIP too.

Some free advice. Don't get caught up in trying to stat geek OOTP. Play the game, go with hunches, think long term and play some players just because.

After a while you will see that many advanced stats match what the eye sees. Let's face it Mike Trout is Mr. WAR for several seasons now. Josh Donaldson ain't far behind. This year Bryce Harper leads the way. Our eyes clearly see what WAR is telling us. I'm less convinced by pitching WAR.

Trebro · 08-31-2015, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0nster

Keeping it simple. I basically look at control to strikeouts plus home runs against. hitters I like the ones who keep strikeouts low but can hit. I don't need fancy stats to tell me something I already know LOL.

Do you find that your less Ks = more double plays when you're on the basepaths? I tend to have an allergy to strikeout magnets, so I tend to have teams that get on base a lot, but not always sure they score more. Still, I personally prefers batters who put ball in play.

NoOne · 09-01-2015, 12:28 AM

many advanced stats (especially on defense) have a fair amount of subjectivity involved in its data and/or data collection.

whether you use traditional stats or new ones, just understand their limitations (sample size, volatility, et al = reasonable expectations and understanding). a 9WAR isn't necessarily better than an 8WAR player, because the stat is not absolute, let alone comparing apples to oranges(it's not scaled to a specific # of opportunties). availability is sometimes related to luck and can heavily affect a player's WAR in any given season.

the people that created WAR are not omniscient. whether renamed or revised, it will evolve into a better statistic through a new equation and/or better consistency in certain data collection (likely both).

in RL, i ignore advanced defensive stats altogether. they lack integrity. in the game i just rely on the position ratings - not even sure if speed affects defense, but i take notice of it regardless for c/ss/2b/lf...

stats (make sure you are comparing apples to apples) should just help you understand a baseline of production for a given player. if you only have that player for 3-5 years, you may end up with bad luck, good luck, or anywhere between. as long as you picked the player with the greatest probability for success, you have choosen wisely. bad results do not neccessarily mean you made the wrong choice, but they can... it's tricky like that when we aren't omniscient, but we can always improve our use of given data.

Pacoheadley · 09-01-2015, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sharkn20

How much is a good FIP for a pitcher then?? I know ERA under 3.00 is very good, amd between 3.01 and 3.50 is acceptable with above 4.00 meanning look for someone else unless his BABIP is well over .300... But don't know about FIP values yet

Since nobody answered, FIP is on the same scale as ERA, a 3.20 FIP is approximately equal to a 3.20 ERA, for example.

Sharkn20 · 09-01-2015, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

Since nobody answered, FIP is on the same scale as ERA, a 3.20 FIP is approximately equal to a 3.20 ERA, for example.

Thanks for the answer buddy

r0nster · 09-01-2015, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebro

Do you find that your less Ks = more double plays when you're on the basepaths? I tend to have an allergy to strikeout magnets, so I tend to have teams that get on base a lot, but not always sure they score more. Still, I personally prefers batters who put ball in play.

In my case I tend to love power pitchers and I have noticed that they seem to do well much like Jose Fernandez has done for me and Archie Bradley. 406 wins 5900 Ks and 256 wins 3800 Ks respectively They been a staple to my teams success. Saved my bullpen as well thus I hardly needed to use the pen so much. 50 innings out of the most used reliever during their span. I guess I look at different old school stats to tell me the same thing you guys looking for .... ohh well LOL

mpbaseball22 · 09-01-2015, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

Since nobody answered, FIP is on the same scale as ERA, a 3.20 FIP is approximately equal to a 3.20 ERA, for example.

Take a look at FIP-. Anything over 100 is below average and under is above average

battists · 09-01-2015, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpbaseball22

Take a look at FIP-. Anything over 100 is below average and under is above average

Other way around, isn't it? A FIP- of 85 means he is pitching better than someone with a FIP- of 100.

baseballonly · 09-01-2015, 09:15 PM

No, K's are only a good thing because no matter what defense you have, the hitter will get out 100% of a time on a strikeout as opposed to 68-72% of the time on a batted ball. Also, if you want double plays look for high GB rates. A tip I've heard is that if pitcher has low control, a high GB rate can make up for it because a lot ofhis walks will turn into double plays.

08-31-2015, 10:07 AM	#1
sreem All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 673	ERA vs. FIP For all the sabers out there, if FIP is higher than ERA, what does that tell me about the pitcher in question? __________________ "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. Except for bears....."

08-31-2015, 10:14 AM	#2
Cinnamon J. Scudworth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 1,119	FIP means Fielding Independent Pitching. It is calculated by only taking into account home runs, strikeouts, and walks (and hit batters). If a pitcher's ERA is much lower than his FIP, it usually means that more balls that have been put into play have been turned into outs than you normally would expect. With luck, your great defense may continue, but a more likely outcome is that his ERA will increase at some point. __________________ "Sometimes, this is like going to a grocery store. You’ve got a list until you get to the check-out stand. And then you start reading People magazine, and all this other [stuff] ends up in the basket." -Sandy Alderson on the MLB offseason

08-31-2015, 11:16 AM	#6
baseballonly All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 806	FIP and then look at groundball ratings. Pitchers who throw a lot of groundballs tend to have a bigger FIP>ERA gap than flyball pitchers. However, if you have a great outfield and your infield sucks, flyball pitchers may do better, especially if your park is large. __________________ Former OOTP Leagues: CBL-Admirals (2016-17 Champs) MMB-Phillies

08-31-2015, 07:22 PM	#10
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	FIP is more predictive. It's not claimed to be a "smoking gun" type stat. If you lose your SS and/or CF and a good pitcher ends up with a 5.5 ERA You cannot really get anything from that. His FIP for a 3 season run where the bad ERA is season 2 will tell you more. Obviously one should look at several other numbers in all of this. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

09-01-2015, 09:15 PM	#20
baseballonly All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 806	No, K's are only a good thing because no matter what defense you have, the hitter will get out 100% of a time on a strikeout as opposed to 68-72% of the time on a batted ball. Also, if you want double plays look for high GB rates. A tip I've heard is that if pitcher has low control, a high GB rate can make up for it because a lot ofhis walks will turn into double plays. __________________ Former OOTP Leagues: CBL-Admirals (2016-17 Champs) MMB-Phillies

08-31-2015, 10:49 AM	#5
mpbaseball22 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 74	Yes FIP is more accurate than ERA. However I think its important to look at the HR/9 your pitcher is giving up, xFIP for some reason is not in the game but I prefer that to just FIP. If your pitcher is giving up more homeruns than usual he may have even more bad luck resulting in a high FIP when really it could be even lower

08-31-2015, 02:37 PM	#7
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,047	I am too old school to deal with FIP. I glean more info about a player using OLD school information than some stat could.

08-31-2015, 06:58 PM	#9
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,047	Keeping it simple. I basically look at control to strikeouts plus home runs against. hitters I like the ones who keep strikeouts low but can hit. I don't need fancy stats to tell me something I already know LOL.

08-31-2015, 08:22 PM	#11
Sharkn20 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 287	How much is a good FIP for a pitcher then?? I know ERA under 3.00 is very good, amd between 3.01 and 3.50 is acceptable with above 4.00 meanning look for someone else unless his BABIP is well over .300... But don't know about FIP values yet

09-01-2015, 12:28 AM	#14
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 1/2 (4)	many advanced stats (especially on defense) have a fair amount of subjectivity involved in its data and/or data collection. whether you use traditional stats or new ones, just understand their limitations (sample size, volatility, et al = reasonable expectations and understanding). a 9WAR isn't necessarily better than an 8WAR player, because the stat is not absolute, let alone comparing apples to oranges(it's not scaled to a specific # of opportunties). availability is sometimes related to luck and can heavily affect a player's WAR in any given season. the people that created WAR are not omniscient. whether renamed or revised, it will evolve into a better statistic through a new equation and/or better consistency in certain data collection (likely both). in RL, i ignore advanced defensive stats altogether. they lack integrity. in the game i just rely on the position ratings - not even sure if speed affects defense, but i take notice of it regardless for c/ss/2b/lf... stats (make sure you are comparing apples to apples) should just help you understand a baseline of production for a given player. if you only have that player for 3-5 years, you may end up with bad luck, good luck, or anywhere between. as long as you picked the player with the greatest probability for success, you have choosen wisely. bad results do not neccessarily mean you made the wrong choice, but they can... it's tricky like that when we aren't omniscient, but we can always improve our use of given data.