Question / League trends in ERA and BA

battists · 06-26-2015, 12:39 AM

Hey folks,

Curious for those of you who often do longer sims. I have simmed 11 years into my league and am noticing a decided trend in terms of pitching versus hitting:

In 10 years, league average BA has gone up close to 40 points in both leagues, and ERA has gone up almost 1.5 in one league and 1 in the other.

While I don't have a problem per se with the numbers, I also don't want to go forward five more years and see average BA around .300 and ERAs in the 5s.

This league has all of the modern settings, and I don't do any auto-import of settings from year-to-year.

Thoughts anyone? Have you seen this before? Is this something I should take action on somehow? Do these numbers look really out of whack to you people who tend to look at big picture stuff?

Andy · 06-26-2015, 01:35 PM

I started a similar thread a few months ago about this. I ended up running another test sim with the auto calc box checked and seemed to get better results.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-going-up.html

Edit - Although I see yours is much more drastic than mine was. I hope you figure it out.

Tyler87898 · 06-26-2015, 01:59 PM

I have the same stuff happening in my fictional MLB league, but it the offense eventually stopped increasing. I'd say the lg ERA has stayed around 4.15.

RchW · 06-26-2015, 02:10 PM

You should autocalc league modifiers. That will temper things. I have up and down variation that works for me.

battists · 06-26-2015, 03:22 PM

Thanks for the suggestions guys! I ran a sample file where I simmed out another 30 years in my current league, and it seems like the levels stayed about where they ended up in my sample above. So, it might be fine. I might start a new file over with auto-calc turned on, though, and see how that goes...

Thanks!

battists · 06-26-2015, 03:26 PM

Stupid question: which particular setting are you referring to for "auto-calc"?

"Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy"?

Thanks!

Andy · 06-26-2015, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Stupid question: which particular setting are you referring to for "auto-calc"?

"Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy"?

Thanks!

That's the one!

RchW · 06-26-2015, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Stupid question: which particular setting are you referring to for "auto-calc"?

"Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy"?

Thanks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy

That's the one!

No not that. It does bad things IMO.

Autocalc appears during the offseason and is usable until opening day. It simply runs an internal sim 3 times based on the players on the rosters and adjusts the modifiers. Run autocalc the day before opening day for best results.

That other check box gives funky results that change the modifiers daily. Don't like it.

Rain King · 06-26-2015, 07:24 PM

There are still some issues with initial talent, I think, although it is much better than past versions. It takes a little while for a league to stabilize to a realistic degree. I don't like autorecalc because I do wan't some fluctuation (i.e. if there happens to be an influx of young pitching talent I want offense to go down instead of the stats normalized to keep that from happening), however that also means that the first 10 years of the league usually see some drastic shifts. So, I still just sim 20 years...delete the history and start from there.

Andy · 06-26-2015, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

No not that. It does bad things IMO.

Autocalc appears during the offseason and is usable until opening day. It simply runs an internal sim 3 times based on the players on the rosters and adjusts the modifiers. Run autocalc the day before opening day for best results.

That other check box gives funky results that change the modifiers daily. Don't like it.

Good to know. When I ran a test sim after checking that box the overall numbers seemed ok, but I didn't really look at any details. I'll be sure to look for the box you are talking about in the off-season. Thanks.

NoOne · 06-26-2015, 08:54 PM

auto-calc has it's own idea of what is 'normal,' which you(plural) may or may not like. i'd be curious as to what it is, specifically. do they remove or weight steroid years differently when finding averages? including stats from different eras would be a problem, too.

i can tell you 3 years is a very volatile result - even for league totals. when i re-simmed 2015 over and over to get new offensive modifiers, it would take at least 10 years for fairly normalized results - some stats don't need that many years, others do. around 20 it's better, but not perfect either.

i mined modifiers that give a .254/.319/.398/.717-ish slash line for the 2015 rosters (off the top of my head - exact info is in a post in this forum). i have not tested how it works long-term, yet. still waiting for that last update.

06-26-2015, 12:39 AM	#1
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Question / League trends in ERA and BA Hey folks, Curious for those of you who often do longer sims. I have simmed 11 years into my league and am noticing a decided trend in terms of pitching versus hitting: In 10 years, league average BA has gone up close to 40 points in both leagues, and ERA has gone up almost 1.5 in one league and 1 in the other. While I don't have a problem per se with the numbers, I also don't want to go forward five more years and see average BA around .300 and ERAs in the 5s. This league has all of the modern settings, and I don't do any auto-import of settings from year-to-year. Thoughts anyone? Have you seen this before? Is this something I should take action on somehow? Do these numbers look really out of whack to you people who tend to look at big picture stuff? __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

06-26-2015, 01:35 PM	#2
Andy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 2,263	I started a similar thread a few months ago about this. I ended up running another test sim with the auto calc box checked and seemed to get better results. http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-going-up.html Edit - Although I see yours is much more drastic than mine was. I hope you figure it out. Last edited by Andy; 06-26-2015 at 01:37 PM.

06-26-2015, 02:10 PM	#4
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	You should autocalc league modifiers. That will temper things. I have up and down variation that works for me. Attached Images __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

06-26-2015, 03:22 PM	#5
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Thanks for the suggestions guys! I ran a sample file where I simmed out another 30 years in my current league, and it seems like the levels stayed about where they ended up in my sample above. So, it might be fine. I might start a new file over with auto-calc turned on, though, and see how that goes... Thanks! __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

06-26-2015, 03:26 PM	#6
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Stupid question: which particular setting are you referring to for "auto-calc"? "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy"? Thanks! __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

06-26-2015, 01:59 PM	#3
Tyler87898 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 794	I have the same stuff happening in my fictional MLB league, but it the offense eventually stopped increasing. I'd say the lg ERA has stayed around 4.15.

06-26-2015, 07:24 PM	#9
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,118 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	There are still some issues with initial talent, I think, although it is much better than past versions. It takes a little while for a league to stabilize to a realistic degree. I don't like autorecalc because I do wan't some fluctuation (i.e. if there happens to be an influx of young pitching talent I want offense to go down instead of the stats normalized to keep that from happening), however that also means that the first 10 years of the league usually see some drastic shifts. So, I still just sim 20 years...delete the history and start from there. Last edited by Rain King; 06-26-2015 at 07:25 PM.

06-26-2015, 08:54 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	auto-calc has it's own idea of what is 'normal,' which you(plural) may or may not like. i'd be curious as to what it is, specifically. do they remove or weight steroid years differently when finding averages? including stats from different eras would be a problem, too. i can tell you 3 years is a very volatile result - even for league totals. when i re-simmed 2015 over and over to get new offensive modifiers, it would take at least 10 years for fairly normalized results - some stats don't need that many years, others do. around 20 it's better, but not perfect either. i mined modifiers that give a .254/.319/.398/.717-ish slash line for the 2015 rosters (off the top of my head - exact info is in a post in this forum). i have not tested how it works long-term, yet. still waiting for that last update.