Presented without comment: 2015 Amateur Draft Comparison

mdtwnkfey · 06-11-2015, 06:25 PM

I'd always been curious about how OOTP's draft compared to what happens in real life, so I put together a little spreadsheet to see it for myself.

This lists the first 75 picks of this week's MLB Rule 4 draft as compared to a simulated draft from OOTP 16, using the most up-to-date rosters in patch 5. In real life, that's the first and second rounds, the compensation round after round 1, and both competitive balance rounds (A after round 1 & B after round 2).

I did change the order of the OOTP draft to match the real life order, but only through the first 75 picks. So the OOTP draft listed in column B reflects 15 picks into the third round, as opposed to two full rounds and the compensation/competitive balance extras in real life. After that point (midway through round 3) the draft order was the default game order. This means some teams had more picks than others post round 3, but this is not about MLB teams and rather the drafted players.

Also my draft was only 35 rounds, so it's possible that some players who were drafted in real life but not in this OOTP example would have been drafted in-game during rounds 36-40.

Highlighted are the draftees whose draft positions were more than 120 picks (4 rounds) apart between examples. I realize some of these players have such a large discrepancy due to signability concerns, and the fact they were drafted so high reflects their talent. Donny Everett is a good example: I've read on various online publications that he has first round talent, but went in the 29th round because he is almost totally certain to go to college.

This was a fun exercise. Enjoy and feel free to discuss!

Link to spreadsheet

mdtwnkfey · 06-11-2015, 06:27 PM

I would like to add that it's excellent that OOTP gives us so many real life players to choose from! Not a single computer generated player was in the first several rounds of my draft. Only one player from the real-life draft's first three rounds (Tanner Rainey) is not in game.

MikeS21 · 06-12-2015, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdtwnkfey

I would like to add that it's excellent that OOTP gives us so many real life players to choose from! Not a single computer generated player was in the first several rounds of my draft. Only one player from the real-life draft's first three rounds (Tanner Rainey) is not in game.

lol! That's due to the fact that the Reds probably were reaching when they took him in the Supplemental Round of Round 2.

Padreman · 06-12-2015, 10:30 AM

The title of this thread days "without comment" so why is there commenting?

mdtwnkfey · 06-12-2015, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

The title of this thread days "without comment" so why is there commenting?

Better question: why do you again feel the need to direct flippant remarks at me? Because you're adding nothing to this thread.

TLB1975 · 06-12-2015, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdtwnkfey

This was a fun exercise. Enjoy and feel free to discuss!

Padreman - Here's your answer

Padreman · 06-12-2015, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdtwnkfey

Better question: why do you again feel the need to direct flippant remarks at me? Because you're adding nothing to this thread.

Calm down stop being sensitive no one is directing nothing to you. Know when people are joking with you. People do it the time here. If you can't realize it or know it then your gonna have a hard time. No one ins trying to do you hard or do you wrong. People joke around in here. It's a guy's lounge we talk sports we talk OOTP and we joke and we drink the symbolic beer

Mike45 · 06-12-2015, 01:58 PM

Thanks for putting this together. One question though...did you leave scouting on or turn it off? Could the discrepency be in part due to talent of scouts in OOTP?

Lukas Berger · 06-12-2015, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike45

Thanks for putting this together. One question though...did you leave scouting on or turn it off? Could the discrepency be in part due to talent of scouts in OOTP?

The list looks quite accurate to me.

Pretty sure any discrepancy is simply due to my not rating guys quite right, or MLB teams disagreeing with my ratings, or to guys shooting up as late risers of fallers, or just that we've made quite a few recent changes to get things more accurate that aren't included in the patch used for this study.

mdtwnkfey · 06-12-2015, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

The list looks quite accurate to me.

Pretty sure any discrepancy is simply due to my not rating guys quite right, or MLB teams disagreeing with my ratings, or to guys shooting up as late risers of fallers, or just that we've made quite a few recent changes to get things more accurate that aren't included in the patch used for this study.

Yes, scouting was on.

I don't think it's necessarily because you didn't rate guys correctly. It's more likely due to signability issues that popped up in real life, or that teams were to some extent drafting for need.

Lukas Berger · 06-12-2015, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdtwnkfey

Yes, scouting was on.

I don't think it's necessarily because you didn't rate guys correctly. It's more likely due to signability issues that popped up in real life, or that teams were to some extent drafting for need.

Yeah, I think you're mostly right on that.

Scouting being on really will affect the results, so I'm definitely curious what they'd be with scouting off. I'll probably run some test on that myself.

There are a few I was truly off on, Stephen Kolek was rated too high f.e. but mostly I'm actually really surprised and pleased at how closely we were able to get the draft class in game to match up with what happened irl.

Very nice study btw, really appreciate your taking the time and effort.

RISP! · 06-12-2015, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

Calm down stop being sensitive no one is directing nothing to you. Know when people are joking with you. People do it the time here. If you can't realize it or know it then your gonna have a hard time. No one ins trying to do you hard or do you wrong. People joke around in here. It's a guy's lounge we talk sports we talk OOTP and we joke and we drink the symbolic beer

I think this is probably the problem with online forums, texting, or anything writing that doesn't involve direct interactions. People just can't read your emotions when you are writing them. So it's bound to be misinterpreted and etc...

mdtwnkfey · 06-12-2015, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Yeah, I think you're mostly right on that.

Scouting being on really will affect the results, so I'm definitely curious what they'd be with scouting off. I'll probably run some test on that myself.

There are a few I was truly off on, Stephen Kolek was rated too high f.e. but mostly I'm actually really surprised and pleased at how closely we were able to get the draft class in game to match up with what happened irl.

Very nice study btw, really appreciate your taking the time and effort.

My pleasure, you should be pleased with all the work you did! I'll try this again myself without scouting on.

The Wolf · 06-12-2015, 09:59 PM

I was surprised to see it presented with comments.

millhousebc · 06-12-2015, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

The list looks quite accurate to me.

Pretty sure any discrepancy is simply due to my not rating guys quite right, or MLB teams disagreeing with my ratings, or to guys shooting up as late risers of fallers, or just that we've made quite a few recent changes to get things more accurate that aren't included in the patch used for this study.

WTF are MLB teams doing by not agreeing with you?

Lukas Berger · 06-12-2015, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by millhousebc

WTF are MLB teams doing by not agreeing with you?

Yeah, shocking isn't it!

They clearly know nothing, the fools

mdtwnkfey · 06-13-2015, 12:44 AM

I presented the data without comment. I included material in my initial post to provide necessary information about the process I used to arrive at the data.

The Wolf · 06-13-2015, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdtwnkfey

I presented the data without comment. I included material in my initial post to provide necessary information about the process I used to arrive at the data.

Which is, of course, a form of comment...

msupoke · 06-13-2015, 01:55 AM

Perhaps he was not wanting your comments...

mdtwnkfey · 06-13-2015, 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Which is, of course, a form of comment...

You'd prefer I just set a link here without any explanation? Instead of preemptively answering questions people might have?

06-11-2015, 06:25 PM	#1
mdtwnkfey Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 301	Presented without comment: 2015 Amateur Draft Comparison I'd always been curious about how OOTP's draft compared to what happens in real life, so I put together a little spreadsheet to see it for myself. This lists the first 75 picks of this week's MLB Rule 4 draft as compared to a simulated draft from OOTP 16, using the most up-to-date rosters in patch 5. In real life, that's the first and second rounds, the compensation round after round 1, and both competitive balance rounds (A after round 1 & B after round 2). I did change the order of the OOTP draft to match the real life order, but only through the first 75 picks. So the OOTP draft listed in column B reflects 15 picks into the third round, as opposed to two full rounds and the compensation/competitive balance extras in real life. After that point (midway through round 3) the draft order was the default game order. This means some teams had more picks than others post round 3, but this is not about MLB teams and rather the drafted players. Also my draft was only 35 rounds, so it's possible that some players who were drafted in real life but not in this OOTP example would have been drafted in-game during rounds 36-40. Highlighted are the draftees whose draft positions were more than 120 picks (4 rounds) apart between examples. I realize some of these players have such a large discrepancy due to signability concerns, and the fact they were drafted so high reflects their talent. Donny Everett is a good example: I've read on various online publications that he has first round talent, but went in the 29th round because he is almost totally certain to go to college. This was a fun exercise. Enjoy and feel free to discuss! Link to spreadsheet

06-12-2015, 10:30 AM	#4
Padreman Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2013 Location: Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (formally San Diego, CA.) Posts: 4,138	The title of this thread days "without comment" so why is there commenting? __________________ Chargers= Despicable Traitors

06-11-2015, 06:27 PM	#2
mdtwnkfey Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 301	I would like to add that it's excellent that OOTP gives us so many real life players to choose from! Not a single computer generated player was in the first several rounds of my draft. Only one player from the real-life draft's first three rounds (Tanner Rainey) is not in game.

06-12-2015, 01:58 PM	#8
Mike45 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 162	Thanks for putting this together. One question though...did you leave scouting on or turn it off? Could the discrepency be in part due to talent of scouts in OOTP?

06-13-2015, 12:44 AM	#17
mdtwnkfey Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 301	I presented the data without comment. I included material in my initial post to provide necessary information about the process I used to arrive at the data.

06-13-2015, 01:55 AM	#19
msupoke All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 621	Perhaps he was not wanting your comments...