League Totals & Modifiers

[froghair]

I am trying to set up a game with an exacting approach to the "batting event environment", ie the league-wide probabilities of doubles, triples, home runs, walks, Ks, etc. I was tinkering with different setups in the league totals/modifiers section and trying to compare them (in a historical league) to what happened in real life for certain years. If I am setting up an 1896 start year, shouldn't the modifiers imported be representative of the 1896 NL?

Where I am getting confused is when I try to compare different year's modifiers. For example, in 1896 the avg NL team struck out 2.22 times per game and the corresponding OOTP modifier for Ks is .892. In 1897 that figure went up to 2.30 times per game .. but the OOTP modifier goes down to .612.

Am I misunderstanding something about the modifiers?

[Ruthian23]

Originally Posted by froghair

I am trying to set up a game with an exacting approach to the "batting event environment", ie the league-wide probabilities of doubles, triples, home runs, walks, Ks, etc. I was tinkering with different setups in the league totals/modifiers section and trying to compare them (in a historical league) to what happened in real life for certain years. If I am setting up an 1896 start year, shouldn't the modifiers imported be representative of the 1896 NL?

Where I am getting confused is when I try to compare different year's modifiers. For example, in 1896 the avg NL team struck out 2.22 times per game and the corresponding OOTP modifier for Ks is .892. In 1897 that figure went up to 2.30 times per game .. but the OOTP modifier goes down to .612.

Am I misunderstanding something about the modifiers?

I can definitely see why you're thinking the way you are, but yeah, you're misunderstanding the same thing I was misunderstanding several weeks back until someone explained it.

The modifiers essentially look at the desired league total and the level of talent in your league in various areas and adjusts for that. In other words, if the OOTP modifier says .612 for Ks, that means that the game has run a few seasons in the background and determined that, on average, the current makeup of your league would strike out 38.8% more than batters struck out in real life in that season (the difference between .612 and a modifier of 1.000).

To simplify the math, say a league is supposed to homer about 1000 times in total. If you autocalculate the modifiers, I've been told the game will run three simulations of the upcoming year in the background. If the average of those three simulations comes out to 1200 homers a year (because your game has more big time power hitters than a league usually sees, etc), the game would adjust that by cutting everyone's HR numbers back 20% with a modifier of .800 so that the overall total (in theory) comes out to closer to 1000.

If you're doing historical you're probably auto-importing modifiers, and I've had good success in the past just not touching those. In other leagues, I've been told that doing an auto-recalc the day before the season is best, as rosters are set and the game will be able to run its simulations with the right rosters.

[froghair]

A positively Ruthian reply. Makes sense now. Thanks much.