Definitely Something Wrong with the Simulation

Otrex · 03-28-2015, 10:34 PM

I've recently purchased OotP16, and I set up a fictional 16 team league that plays according to 1993 stats with modern 2014 financials. It also uses the random debut feature and allows any player from 1901 to 1981.

There is DEFINITELY a human-controlled player bias when it comes to winning games - and a big one. Here's how I know:

I've played 5 seasons so far, but I have yet to actually input any manual changes. Every single season I've played, I've let the A.I. do everything. I simply run the whole season and watch.

In my first 3 seasons, my team rattled off a high of 118 wins. My team won two world series during that time.

Okay, maybe I got lucky and received a superstar team by chance? I tested that theory too.

In season 4, I switched managing positions to the WORST team in the league, who had just completed a season with 120 losses. That very next season, with 90% the same lineup, they rattled off 85 wins and made the playoffs. The next season, they won the World Series. My previous team was down in the middle of the pack within 2 seasons, no longer benefiting from my golden "non-touch".

Keep in mind I have yet to input a single instruction to any of the teams I've managed.

Something is definitely wrong here. Anyone have any input on this? It's not terribly fun to get a constant assist from the AI - imagine when I start tweaking things to improve them further!

__________________________________________________ _______

On a side note, some of the stats generated are a bit strange too. My final season had a certain "Ray Jablonski" lead the league with 52 homeruns, despite hitting 21 as his career best (in the 50s, I believe).

NCBeachBum · 03-28-2015, 10:36 PM

These are the steps you now need to take, post-haste:

1. Buy a lottery ticket
2. Win the lottery
3. PROFIT

Otrex · 03-28-2015, 10:44 PM

If it were real life, I'd agree with you.

But the game seems to think I am King Midas. Except that I don't have to touch anything and it still turns to gold.

OakDragon · 03-28-2015, 10:56 PM

The only conclusion I can come to in that case is OOTP loves you and hates me and I really don't want to go down that road.

NCBeachBum · 03-28-2015, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OakDragon

The only conclusion I can come to in that case is OOTP loves you and hates me and I really don't want to go down that road.

In past lives, he was Gandhi, and you were that Soviet serial killer who offed 50+. It's clearly the only reasonable explanation.

The Wolf · 03-28-2015, 11:02 PM

We should all rub his icon for luck before we play out our games.

megamanmatt · 03-28-2015, 11:51 PM

OP must have been managing the Twins and the Braves in '91. Finally explains it.

NCBeachBum · 03-29-2015, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamanmatt

OP must have been managing the Twins and the Braves in '91. Finally explains it.

He has been running but refusing to actually touch the Orioles the last couple of years. And the same with the Rockies that year they went on that insane end-of-year streak and made it to the WS.

dubb93 · 03-29-2015, 12:53 AM

My team just blew a an 8 game lead in the final month including losses on the last two days of the season to force a tie breaker. Then blew a lead with two out in the bottom of the ninth. Blew another lead in th bottom of the 10th before losing in the 11th to miss the playoffs. I don't feel your pain.

Otrex · 03-29-2015, 01:02 AM

Hopefully the developers will take a look at this issue. I've owned at least 6 different versions of OotP, including the first, but I've not seen this problem quite so pronounced.

Sweed · 03-29-2015, 01:10 AM

You could post your issue in the other thread somebody started because he knows the game is rigged against the human player

Otrex · 03-29-2015, 03:04 AM

Except for in this circumstance, I removed the element of human control (i.e. playing poorly, or playing well). In some ways, I'm playing only as the observer, with the only changing element being the team I tell the AI I'm "managing".

I don't think the two complaints are comparable.

greenOak · 03-29-2015, 03:53 AM

No offense, but nobody here is taking you seriously nor should they. You don't seem to understand how far variance can and does swing in one direction or the other. You're evidence is severely lacking sample size. Run ~1000 seasons and if you still have your problem, then maybe we can start talking.

majesty95 · 03-29-2015, 06:11 AM

I, like others, have not experienced the same thing as you. Now, could the game possibly determine at the outset of your league if you will be "blessed"? Maybe. I don't think so but maybe. But i KNOW it does not inherently favor the user.

I would suggest creating a brand new league and trying it again and see what happens over 10 seasons. At least that would give you a "little" more context.

I♥Pepper · 03-29-2015, 07:57 AM

I think that the sample size is nearly impossible to determine in this case. To determine sample size, one has to know the size of the population. What is the size of the population in the o.p.'s example? The number of total decisions the a.i. can make over the course of a season? Nearly impossible to determine me thinks.

Instead, it becomes more of a subjective determination based on personal preference. Would you allow your star hitter 1000 hitless at bats before trading him? Probably not. More like about 50, maybe. Or maybe more or less based on other factors.

This line of thought can continue into the OP's example. I think there are way to many variables involved in the starting conditions of the example given. Before I made a personal judgement on whether or not my presence was influencing results even without any input from me, I would need to stabilize the simulation. Or, at least define parameters. For example, under what starting conditions should I expect my team to win the division 9 times out of 10? What conditions should I expect my team to loose 9 times out of 10. Then apply those starting conditions and run tests. Examples of factors to consider are : Can players evolve? Can players be traded? Do coaches evolve? Can coaches be hired and fired? Are injuries allowed? Rainouts? Team strategy settings? Substitution patterns? Fatigue? And many more. It's a complicated process that requires a little more control than just 5 random seasons of results, at least it would for me.

BIG17EASY · 03-29-2015, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

We should all rub his icon for luck before we play out our games.

Excuse you?

Honorable_Pawn · 03-29-2015, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

My team just blew a an 8 game lead in the final month including losses on the last two days of the season to force a tie breaker. Then blew a lead with two out in the bottom of the ninth. Blew another lead in th bottom of the 10th before losing in the 11th to miss the playoffs. I don't feel your pain.

r0nster · 03-29-2015, 10:05 AM

I actually think its fine. I play most of my games out and I have gone through slumps and high rising fun. Just what one would see in real life. IF we were back in 2001 to 2003 I would have agreed with you but I can tell over the last decade in the improvements of the game engine. I love how it can thrill me of a nice come from behind victory from the jaws of defeat and also be in agony of defeat for blowing a sizeable lead. Have also seen a team go through a 26 game winning streak and a 15 game losing streak. things happen. GOOD LUCK in your game!

Lou Gehrig · 03-29-2015, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otrex

There is DEFINITELY a human-controlled player bias when it comes to winning games - and a big one.

In all due respect, "definitely" is a pretty strong word. If it was "definitely" don't you think the experienced players in this forum would be yelling from the highest roof about it?

tcblcommish · 03-29-2015, 12:15 PM

Other tham being a smarter manager in situations than the ai i dont see any bias at all

03-28-2015, 10:34 PM	#1
Otrex Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 82	Definitely Something Wrong with the Simulation I've recently purchased OotP16, and I set up a fictional 16 team league that plays according to 1993 stats with modern 2014 financials. It also uses the random debut feature and allows any player from 1901 to 1981. There is DEFINITELY a human-controlled player bias when it comes to winning games - and a big one. Here's how I know: I've played 5 seasons so far, but I have yet to actually input any manual changes. Every single season I've played, I've let the A.I. do everything. I simply run the whole season and watch. In my first 3 seasons, my team rattled off a high of 118 wins. My team won two world series during that time. Okay, maybe I got lucky and received a superstar team by chance? I tested that theory too. In season 4, I switched managing positions to the WORST team in the league, who had just completed a season with 120 losses. That very next season, with 90% the same lineup, they rattled off 85 wins and made the playoffs. The next season, they won the World Series. My previous team was down in the middle of the pack within 2 seasons, no longer benefiting from my golden "non-touch". Keep in mind I have yet to input a single instruction to any of the teams I've managed. Something is definitely wrong here. Anyone have any input on this? It's not terribly fun to get a constant assist from the AI - imagine when I start tweaking things to improve them further! __________________________________________________ _______ On a side note, some of the stats generated are a bit strange too. My final season had a certain "Ray Jablonski" lead the league with 52 homeruns, despite hitting 21 as his career best (in the 50s, I believe). __________________ "Modern Baseball is a slap-in-the-face to everything that was sacred in the past." Last edited by Otrex; 03-30-2015 at 01:00 AM.

03-28-2015, 10:36 PM	#2
NCBeachBum All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Topsail Island, NC, USA Posts: 1,049	These are the steps you now need to take, post-haste: 1. Buy a lottery ticket 2. Win the lottery 3. PROFIT __________________ And ain't that a shame, shame, shame Shame, shame, the way you do Oh, it's a shame, shame, shame Shame, shame on you

03-28-2015, 10:44 PM	#3
Otrex Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 82	If it were real life, I'd agree with you. But the game seems to think I am King Midas. Except that I don't have to touch anything and it still turns to gold. __________________ "Modern Baseball is a slap-in-the-face to everything that was sacred in the past."

03-28-2015, 11:51 PM	#7
megamanmatt Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lakeville, Minnesota Posts: 2,416	OP must have been managing the Twins and the Braves in '91. Finally explains it. __________________ "The Minneapolis Lakers moved to Los Angeles, where there are no lakes; The Oilers moved to Tennessee where there is no oil; the Jazz moved to Salt Lake City where they don't allow music; The Oakland Raiders moved to Los Angeles and then back to Oakland, no one in Los Angeles seemed to notice." Note to self: Princess Kenny was really off-putting.

03-29-2015, 01:02 AM	#10
Otrex Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 82	Hopefully the developers will take a look at this issue. I've owned at least 6 different versions of OotP, including the first, but I've not seen this problem quite so pronounced. __________________ "Modern Baseball is a slap-in-the-face to everything that was sacred in the past."

03-28-2015, 10:56 PM	#4
OakDragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: San Jose, CA USA Posts: 3,494	The only conclusion I can come to in that case is OOTP loves you and hates me and I really don't want to go down that road.

03-29-2015, 12:53 AM	#9
dubb93 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 26	My team just blew a an 8 game lead in the final month including losses on the last two days of the season to force a tie breaker. Then blew a lead with two out in the bottom of the ninth. Blew another lead in th bottom of the 10th before losing in the 11th to miss the playoffs. I don't feel your pain.

03-29-2015, 01:10 AM	#11
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,740	You could post your issue in the other thread somebody started because he knows the game is rigged against the human player

03-29-2015, 03:04 AM	#12
Otrex Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 82	Except for in this circumstance, I removed the element of human control (i.e. playing poorly, or playing well). In some ways, I'm playing only as the observer, with the only changing element being the team I tell the AI I'm "managing". I don't think the two complaints are comparable. __________________ "Modern Baseball is a slap-in-the-face to everything that was sacred in the past."

03-29-2015, 03:53 AM	#13
greenOak Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 203	No offense, but nobody here is taking you seriously nor should they. You don't seem to understand how far variance can and does swing in one direction or the other. You're evidence is severely lacking sample size. Run ~1000 seasons and if you still have your problem, then maybe we can start talking. Last edited by greenOak; 03-29-2015 at 03:57 AM.

03-29-2015, 06:11 AM	#14
majesty95 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 1,789	I, like others, have not experienced the same thing as you. Now, could the game possibly determine at the outset of your league if you will be "blessed"? Maybe. I don't think so but maybe. But i KNOW it does not inherently favor the user. I would suggest creating a brand new league and trying it again and see what happens over 10 seasons. At least that would give you a "little" more context. __________________ College Football Sim League

03-29-2015, 07:57 AM	#15
I♥Pepper Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 33	I think that the sample size is nearly impossible to determine in this case. To determine sample size, one has to know the size of the population. What is the size of the population in the o.p.'s example? The number of total decisions the a.i. can make over the course of a season? Nearly impossible to determine me thinks. Instead, it becomes more of a subjective determination based on personal preference. Would you allow your star hitter 1000 hitless at bats before trading him? Probably not. More like about 50, maybe. Or maybe more or less based on other factors. This line of thought can continue into the OP's example. I think there are way to many variables involved in the starting conditions of the example given. Before I made a personal judgement on whether or not my presence was influencing results even without any input from me, I would need to stabilize the simulation. Or, at least define parameters. For example, under what starting conditions should I expect my team to win the division 9 times out of 10? What conditions should I expect my team to loose 9 times out of 10. Then apply those starting conditions and run tests. Examples of factors to consider are : Can players evolve? Can players be traded? Do coaches evolve? Can coaches be hired and fired? Are injuries allowed? Rainouts? Team strategy settings? Substitution patterns? Fatigue? And many more. It's a complicated process that requires a little more control than just 5 random seasons of results, at least it would for me.

03-29-2015, 10:05 AM	#18
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	I actually think its fine. I play most of my games out and I have gone through slumps and high rising fun. Just what one would see in real life. IF we were back in 2001 to 2003 I would have agreed with you but I can tell over the last decade in the improvements of the game engine. I love how it can thrill me of a nice come from behind victory from the jaws of defeat and also be in agony of defeat for blowing a sizeable lead. Have also seen a team go through a 26 game winning streak and a 15 game losing streak. things happen. GOOD LUCK in your game!

03-29-2015, 12:15 PM	#20
tcblcommish Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 3,439	Other tham being a smarter manager in situations than the ai i dont see any bias at all