Park factors for this ballpark

[ajmack130]

There is a local field with these dimensions. I wonder what the park factors would look like.
LF - 320
LCF - 340
CF - 360
RCF - 400
RF - 390 (yes, 390)

Other things to consider: pretty neutral hitters background (I would think, no batter's eye, though), open stadium (of course), fairly average wind, maybe slightly above humidity (in a Mid-Atlantic state), altitude of 1,100, fence height of maybe 10 feet all around. Probably the biggest non-dimension impact would be very little foul territory.

Thoughts?

[PSUColonel]

Is there any program out there that can calculate park factors after entering the pertinent info?

[thriller13]

Lba rba 2b 3b lhr rhr
0.832 1.003 1.112 0.859 0.581 1.350

Quick calc with above dimensions in stadium spreadsheet.

[RchW]

You can't generate park factors without prior stats relative to the league the park is in. Any calculated version is pure guesswork as the totals of all the park factors in a league must average out to 1.000.

Edit:

Not must average out to 1 but very close to it subject to some statistical stuff I don't know well enough.

[ajmack130]

Quick calc with above dimensions in stadium spreadsheet.[/QUOTE]

Where is this stadium spreadsheet?

[ajmack130]

I'm not sure I follow those numbers besides the home run factors. I would think batting average for lefties would be enhanced with a lot of room in right field. More doubles than average, but less triples, too? Seems like there would be a lot of triples hit to right field.

Thanks for calculating those numbers, though.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ajmack130

I'm not sure I follow those numbers besides the home run factors. I would think batting average for lefties would be enhanced with a lot of room in right field. More doubles than average, but less triples, too? Seems like there would be a lot of triples hit to right field.

Thanks for calculating those numbers, though.

These factors are meaningless without any stat output . In the simplest form park factors show the relationship between one season (or multiple seasons) stat output measured in each park vs the league average statistical output. League average returns a 1 factor.

For example lets say RHB averaged 100 HR per park in your league and it has 10 teams. That gives us 1000 HR by RHB. The factor of 1.35 or 135 to make it simpler says that RHB hit 135 HR in that park. By definition something less than 100 HR must be hit by RHB in the other 9 parks. Calculating this shows that the remaining parks must have a RHB HR factor of 96 when the park above has a factor of 135.

If you replace one of the 96 factor parks with a new park where 138 HR are hit everything changes. Total HR by RHB go up (1041 vs 1000) so does the average HR by RHB (104.1) and the factors for all but the new park go down. The original park has the RHB HR factor drop from 135 to 130. The new park has a factor of 133 and the 8 remaining parks are at 92. Obviously things like player talent and movement will have substantial effects on park factors but one can only calculate these effects based on the statistical output of the league.

Hope this helps.

[thriller13]

Originally Posted by RchW

These factors are meaningless without any stat output . In the simplest form park factors show the relationship between one season (or multiple seasons) stat output measured in each park vs the league average statistical output. League average returns a 1 factor.

For example lets say RHB averaged 100 HR per park in your league and it has 10 teams. That gives us 1000 HR by RHB. The factor of 1.35 or 135 to make it simpler says that RHB hit 135 HR in that park. By definition something less than 100 HR must be hit by RHB in the other 9 parks. Calculating this shows that the remaining parks must have a RHB HR factor of 96 when the park above has a factor of 135.

If you replace one of the 96 factor parks with a new park where 138 HR are hit everything changes. Total HR by RHB go up (1041 vs 1000) so does the average HR by RHB (104.1) and the factors for all but the new park go down. The original park has the RHB HR factor drop from 135 to 130. The new park has a factor of 133 and the 8 remaining parks are at 92. Obviously things like player talent and movement will have substantial effects on park factors but one can only calculate these effects based on the statistical output of the league.

Hope this helps.

I guess I fully don't understand this. Why should it get harder to hit a homerun in all the other ballparks in a league if one of the teams brings their fences in? I am sure I am just confused and am not asking for a huge explanation, I just wish some of this stuff was more intuitive. I have only been playing this game since OOTP 2, I shouldn't still be this confused by basic engine mechanics.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by thriller13

I guess I fully don't understand this. Why should it get harder to hit a homerun in all the other ballparks in a league if one of the teams brings their fences in? I am sure I am just confused and am not asking for a huge explanation, I just wish some of this stuff was more intuitive.

Nothing gets harder or easier it just gets redistributed. To paraphrase (misquote) Einstein, everything is relative. If a couple of teams and parks have a spike in any measurable stat covered by park factors all other park factors fall by the difference vs the league average. The capability to hit HR may not change in your park but the distribution of HR is different and so your factor goes down. Also keep in mind that any given park factor only applies to the previous season or for the season currently underway which may be affected by sample size in the early months.

Park factors are extremely volatile from year. Colorado has been 9th and 8th in HR park factors in the last 10 years despite generally being in the top 5

The other thing to keep in mind is that my explanation is extremely simplistic. Park factors are affected by weather (especially wind and sun) batters pitchers umpires game times and so on.

Originally Posted by thriller13

I have only been playing this game since OOTP 2, I shouldn't still be this confused by basic engine mechanics.

This is not game engine related other than it is used by OOTP to produce different stats for different ballparks. The calculation is a simple arithmetic exercise that ranks the occurrence of stats per park vs league average stats.

[thriller13]

Originally Posted by RchW

This is not game engine related other than it is used by OOTP to produce different stats for different ballparks. The calculation is a simple arithmetic exercise that ranks the occurrence of stats per park vs league average stats.

So if a team moves to a new stadium that is very homerun friendly in an established league, the league average homerun totals would also need to be adjusted so the league hits more homeruns? The park factors are only how the league's increase homeruns are distributed?

[MBarrett]

I've noticed these factors don't change from year-to-year and surely the exact same stats aren't being produced each season. So I'm guessing these factors are static in OOTP and the engine isn't evaluating previous season's stats to determine new factors each year?

[Charlie Hough]

Some clarity might help. The problem is that park factors, as they are calculated in real life, are completely pointless in my opinion. They don't really measure the true impact of a ballpark's dimensions, fence heights, and elevation on statistical output. As others have explained, they calculate the total statistical output generated in that ballpark, relative to the league average and only for a given season.

And the park factors do not control for the actual players on the field. They don't control for the reality of whether the home team simply had a great or terrible roster, whether its batters had poor power or great contact, or whether its pitchers tended to serve up a lot of extra base hits or home runs. They include opposing teams' performances, which helps address this, but it does not make up for the possibility that factors that have nothing to do with the ballpark are actually having a huge impact on park factors. And, if you see the dramatic changes that are sometimes found in park factors for the same ballpark across seasons, despite no changes in dimensions or fence heights, this problem becomes readily apparent.

However, in OOTP, where you may be playing fictional leagues or adding or modifying ballparks, ideally you need park factors that reflect the true, individual impact of a ballpark across seasons and regardless of the league average or what statistics were generated in other ballparks. In fact, this kind of park factor is what most people have in mind when they first hear about park factors. They expect that they will measure a ballpark's overall tendency to affect statistical output, regardless of who plays there. But, unfortunately, that's not what they do.

However, before I go further, I should point out that you are free to modify park factors in OOTP however you'd like, and you can find a convenient Excel stadium chart that will calculate park factors using formula developed in an attempt to create truly overall and historical park factors based on park dimensions and characteristics. It's hardly an exact science, and some purists will object to using this approach, but, to me, it reflects the kind of park factors that we really need, particularly if we want to deviate from real life.

So, you can actually calculate and use your own park factors, and they don't have to add up to 1.000 for each category across your entire league. They only have to total 1.000 for each category if you want your league to strictly try to achieve the same league totals as your league's settings or historical settings indicate. But, if you don't mind some slight variation from this, then it's perfectly fine to modify your park factors to reflect a change like a team moving to a new, hitter-friendly ballpark, without adjusting other parks to result in 1.000 for each category. Yes, it might inflate your overall league totals slightly, but presumably you want this effect anyway because, in reality, this is exactly what should happen if one of the league's teams moves into a more offensive park.

So, personally, I use my own park factors. For example, in my current fictional league, I used the Excel stadium chart to model fictional stadiums after various stadiums in the Excel file, and I've never bothered to review whether my park factors total 1.000. I don't care. I want my league to have its own distinct ballpark effects that reflect the real nature of the ballparks that are used and that are not based on merely trying to reproduce stat distributions based on a particular year. So my statistical output does not necessarily adhere strictly to the historical league totals that I'm using, but it still uses them as a guideline, and, after five seasons, the results are excellent and clearly show a nice impact of my ballparks on statistical output.

To understand the pointlessness of park factors as they are calculated in real life, just consider the possibility that there could be an MLB team that trades away or otherwise loses all of its power hitters. Let's suppose that, due to this lack of power on the roster, the team hits only 50 home runs during a season, and only 25 of these occur at home.

When calculating the park factors for the team's home stadium, this would likely skew the results, even when counting the statistical output of opposing hitters, so that the park would suddenly seem to be a much tougher place to hit a home run. But that's not necessarily the case. Other teams may have hit for normal home run totals, but the dramatically low total for the weak-powered home team might completely skew the numbers so that the home stadium now seems like a pitcher's ballpark.

If the home team had fielded a normal lineup during the preceding year, its park factors could be hugely different from one year to the next, despite having identical dimensions, wall heights, and elevation. That, to me, is why real life park factors are stupid and pointless.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by thriller13

So if a team moves to a new stadium that is very homerun friendly in an established league, the league average homerun totals would also need to be adjusted so the league hits more homeruns? The park factors are only how the league's increase homeruns are distributed?

Except that if a team moves to a new ballpark in an established league you don't have any park factors to rely on. The correct procedure is to set that ballpark to 1 across the board then use the generated stats to establish park factors the following season. That's how it works in real life. Also keep in mind that subtracting ballpark X with it's established factors will change all other ballparks factors when the replacement park comes on line with 1 across the board.

Re the bold. League total HR may go up stay the same or go down irrespective of any change in park factors. My feeling is that you are placing way too much importance on park factors. They are just part of the overall stat output and they should never be static or too predictable.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

its park factors could be hugely different from one year to the next, despite having identical dimensions, wall heights, and elevation. That, to me, is why real life park factors are stupid and pointless.

Just to continue with clarity. There has been no discussion of real life park factors here. So I'm just a little confused.

[thriller13]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

So, personally, I use my own park factors. For example, in my current fictional league, I used the Excel stadium chart to model fictional stadiums after various stadiums in the Excel file, and I've never bothered to review whether my park factors total 1.000. I don't care. I want my league to have its own distinct ballpark effects that reflect the real nature of the ballparks that are used and that are not based on merely trying to reproduce stat distributions based on a particular year. So my statistical output does not necessarily adhere strictly to the historical league totals that I'm using, but it still uses them as a guideline, and, after five seasons, the results are excellent and clearly show a nice impact of my ballparks on statistical output.

I guess this sums up what I have been doing as well in the fictional leagues I create. Thankfully the results have been realistic enough that I have never looked deeper at how it actually works. Thanks for taking the time to educate me.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by RchW

Just to continue with clarity. There has been no discussion of real life park factors here. So I'm just a little confused.

The way that OOTP handles park factors is based on real life park factors and how they are calculated. That's why they have to total 1.000 if you don't want deviation from adherence to the league totals that you have set. In theory, if you adjust one and it offsets the balance, you are supposed to adjust the others.

Park factors also play a huge role in historical OOTP games, particularly if you're not using neutralized stats. If you're not using neutralized stats, then using park factors will effectively double the impact of your ballparks. This is because, theoretically, the player stats for that historical season were already influenced by the ballparks, and if you add park factors on top of the player's ratings, which were determined by his real stats, then you're potentially going to skew results. So, the guy who hit 50 home runs in a hitter's ballpark that season might hit 65 because the park factors are double-influencing his performance. This is why people who don't play with neutralized stats are advised to set each park's factors to exactly 1.000 for every category in historical games. But this is problematic when you consider that players can change teams in historical games, and they can take on a life of their own. So that's why some people recommend playing with neutralized stats, so players can move around and their performances can be influenced with relative ballpark realism.

However, this real-life basis is also why there has been so much confusion over the park factors in OOTP over the years. As I pointed out, most people think of park factors intuitively and assume that they should reflect a park's real, long-term impact on statistical results and not merely the single-season statistical output within that park relative to the output among all other parks in an MLB season.

So, this is why I have brought up the real life calculations, to help explain how and why OOTP handles park factors the way that it does. And I also bring it up because I think the real-life park factor methodology is flawed, and we need a better approach. At the very least, I don't think it's advisable for people to ensure that their park factors total 1.000 if they are not trying to strictly run an MLB season and base things on exact league totals. For example, let's say that you've created a league based on the MLB, but you want half your ballparks to be much friendler to pitchers. Well, you're not going to see any major change in results if all your ballpark factors add up to 1.000. Instead, they should add up to less than 1.000, which will realistically reflect the potential impact of half the ballparks suddenly being pitcher-friendly parks.