What is up with pitcher WAR?

harrumph · 09-11-2014, 05:11 AM

I’m doing my little one-man “Veterans Committee,” looking at guys who fell through the cracks of the HoF milestones. There are two pitchers, Kyriakou and Enckell, who had too-short careers but peaked spectacularly.

They’ve got very similar lines—within 3% of each other in appearances, starts, and losses. Kyriakou got more run support and thus more wins. He pitched 6% more innings. His ERA was 5% higher. His FIP was 2% lower. They threw almost the exact same number of pitches per game, had very similar GB/FB ratios, even caught the same number of base stealers and pitched the same number of shutouts. Almost identical WHIP. Probably the biggest difference (responsible, I’m guessing, for the ERA-FIP discrepancy) is that Kyriakou’s walk rate was a lot lower (1.8/9 vs. 2.5/9). Their strikeout rates are very close. Their VORP is extremely close: 480.9 for Kyriakou, 468.6 for Enckell. Enckell has a much higher WPA for whatever reason (28.7 to Kyriakou’s 22.5); I guess that’s just luck.

So what’s the issue? They have completely different career WAR figures. Kyriakou (1.2 WAR as a batter, including a grand total of -1.3 ZR in almost 2500 innings in the field) has 62.6 total career WAR. Enckell (1.6 WAR as a batter, including a whopping 3.3 ZR) has 48.8 career WAR.

Kyriakou's just three years older than Enckell, and their careers overlapped for eleven years. They spent part of that time in the same subleague, but even when they were in different subleagues, the quality of play and league average/ERA were very similar.

How is this possible? I really don’t believe that giving up 50% more walks makes you worth 25% less as a pitcher.

Avindian · 09-11-2014, 05:48 AM

My guess is this sentence: "He pitched 6% more innings."

Since WAR is a counting stat, the guy who pitches more innings will have a higher WAR.

harrumph · 09-11-2014, 06:02 AM

Sure, but how does 6% more playing time get you 30% more WAR when pretty much all of your rate stats are identical?

jaa36 · 09-11-2014, 08:35 AM

FIP is not park-adjusted, so Kyriakou pitched in parks that were more favorable to hitters over the course of his career.

harrumph · 09-11-2014, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaa36

FIP is not park-adjusted, so Kyriakou pitched in parks that were more favorable to hitters over the course of his career.

Nailed it. Enckell played his entire career in what's almost certainly the league's most extreme pitcher's park: .912 average (by far the strongest factor in the league), .922 doubles, .940 triples (fourth- and fifth-strongest, respectively, in a league of twenty teams), .981 homers. No mean feat, building a stadium that suppresses every factor of offense.

Kyriakou called four different stadiums home. Three were neutral or favored pitchers, but the fourth (where he spent nine years, more than half his career) is the Yankee Stadium of the league: neutral to righties, ultra-favorable to lefties. I've gotta say, it doesn't show in his stats—he murdered lefties all through his career (he and Enckell were lefties themselves) and had all his best years (seven of those nine years, his ERA was 3.15 or less) in that hitter's park.

But it does explain the difference in WAR. Hell of a difference!

09-11-2014, 05:11 AM	#1
harrumph Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 41	What is up with pitcher WAR? I’m doing my little one-man “Veterans Committee,” looking at guys who fell through the cracks of the HoF milestones. There are two pitchers, Kyriakou and Enckell, who had too-short careers but peaked spectacularly. They’ve got very similar lines—within 3% of each other in appearances, starts, and losses. Kyriakou got more run support and thus more wins. He pitched 6% more innings. His ERA was 5% higher. His FIP was 2% lower. They threw almost the exact same number of pitches per game, had very similar GB/FB ratios, even caught the same number of base stealers and pitched the same number of shutouts. Almost identical WHIP. Probably the biggest difference (responsible, I’m guessing, for the ERA-FIP discrepancy) is that Kyriakou’s walk rate was a lot lower (1.8/9 vs. 2.5/9). Their strikeout rates are very close. Their VORP is extremely close: 480.9 for Kyriakou, 468.6 for Enckell. Enckell has a much higher WPA for whatever reason (28.7 to Kyriakou’s 22.5); I guess that’s just luck. So what’s the issue? They have completely different career WAR figures. Kyriakou (1.2 WAR as a batter, including a grand total of -1.3 ZR in almost 2500 innings in the field) has 62.6 total career WAR. Enckell (1.6 WAR as a batter, including a whopping 3.3 ZR) has 48.8 career WAR. Kyriakou's just three years older than Enckell, and their careers overlapped for eleven years. They spent part of that time in the same subleague, but even when they were in different subleagues, the quality of play and league average/ERA were very similar. How is this possible? I really don’t believe that giving up 50% more walks makes you worth 25% less as a pitcher.

09-11-2014, 05:48 AM	#2
Avindian Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 274	My guess is this sentence: "He pitched 6% more innings." Since WAR is a counting stat, the guy who pitches more innings will have a higher WAR.

09-11-2014, 06:02 AM	#3
harrumph Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 41	Sure, but how does 6% more playing time get you 30% more WAR when pretty much all of your rate stats are identical?

09-11-2014, 08:35 AM	#4
jaa36 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,106	FIP is not park-adjusted, so Kyriakou pitched in parks that were more favorable to hitters over the course of his career.