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Old 06-03-2014, 07:43 AM   #1
G-Nuke
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Historical Play - Priorities

Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffR
I've been alternating my regular database work with expanding the historical database backwards to 1910; I'm in the mid-30's at the moment and will be adding the team and league data for the NHA, PCHL, and WCHL this week so I can go further back. I'm hoping to have all of it ready to go by the time the guys begin implementing the coding side of pre-1947 play and the new leagues.

I love historical play, and while this will be cool, this isn't even close to being a priority to me right now.


1 - Player Ratings
The default player ratings are all over the place still, with many legit NHLers still stuck at the default "10" for many attributes. The offensive attributes still don't do a good job of modeling their real life offensive output (I have to re-rate virtually every top player for every team every year to get anything even close to real life production) and the penalty minutes are ridiculously bad... Bobby Orr looks like a Lady Bing winner in FHM.


2 - Simming to Post 2013
This is a feature every sports simulation has when a career mode is present. This includes OOTP and games like Baseball Mogul. It doesn't make any sense that the game stops dead in 2013...


3 - Option to turn Retire in actual year off
What if Mike Bossy kept playing? What if Bobby Orr didn't hurt his knee as often? This is hinted at with the checkmark in the new historical game dialog, but isn't actually clickable.


4 - Other player development options
Currently all we have is the re-rate in the off-season option. Would like to see more, including a natural progression or three year averages and all the other bells and whistles OOTP offers.


5 - Minor Leagues
Some kind of minor league system would be nice, rather than the generic reserve list, even f you had to fudge it a bit and made it a non-playable league...


6 - Custom historical leagues
In the fictional game setup it would also be nice to be able to select a start year sometime in the past and the option to load new players from the historical database rather than fictional players. This might also solve the problem with #5 (it would allow us to setup minor leagues) and once, I assume, expansion is added to the features of the fictional leagues then we could have our historical sandbox mode.


To me getting all these other things sorted is more important than just back-dating the already heavily flawed historical game.
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Old 06-03-2014, 08:40 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
I love historical play, and while this will be cool, this isn't even close to being a priority to me right now.


2 - Simming to Post 2013
This is a feature every sports simulation has when a career mode is present. This includes OOTP and games like Baseball Mogul. It doesn't make any sense that the game stops dead in 2013...


3 - Option to turn Retire in actual year off
What if Mike Bossy kept playing? What if Bobby Orr didn't hurt his knee as often? This is hinted at with the checkmark in the new historical game dialog, but isn't actually clickable.


4 - Other player development options
Currently all we have is the re-rate in the off-season option. Would like to see more, including a natural progression or three year averages and all the other bells and whistles OOTP offers.

Absolutely. These are the three biggest for me, especially the second one. Also, it would be nice if in historical mode you could turn off scouting and go to 100% accuracy if you like. Scouting just is not as important in that kind of game because all player information is essentially at a player's finger tips if they would like to use it.
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Old 06-05-2014, 12:04 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
I love historical play, and while this will be cool, this isn't even close to being a priority to me right now.


1 - Player Ratings
The default player ratings are all over the place still, with many legit NHLers still stuck at the default "10" for many attributes. The offensive attributes still don't do a good job of modeling their real life offensive output (I have to re-rate virtually every top player for every team every year to get anything even close to real life production) and the penalty minutes are ridiculously bad... Bobby Orr looks like a Lady Bing winner in FHM.


2 - Simming to Post 2013
This is a feature every sports simulation has when a career mode is present. This includes OOTP and games like Baseball Mogul. It doesn't make any sense that the game stops dead in 2013...


3 - Option to turn Retire in actual year off
What if Mike Bossy kept playing? What if Bobby Orr didn't hurt his knee as often? This is hinted at with the checkmark in the new historical game dialog, but isn't actually clickable.


4 - Other player development options
Currently all we have is the re-rate in the off-season option. Would like to see more, including a natural progression or three year averages and all the other bells and whistles OOTP offers.


5 - Minor Leagues
Some kind of minor league system would be nice, rather than the generic reserve list, even f you had to fudge it a bit and made it a non-playable league...


6 - Custom historical leagues
In the fictional game setup it would also be nice to be able to select a start year sometime in the past and the option to load new players from the historical database rather than fictional players. This might also solve the problem with #5 (it would allow us to setup minor leagues) and once, I assume, expansion is added to the features of the fictional leagues then we could have our historical sandbox mode.


To me getting all these other things sorted is more important than just back-dating the already heavily flawed historical game.

Agreed. That is the hockey sim I've always wanted.
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Old 07-06-2014, 01:44 PM   #4
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Gonna give this a bump. With the "Final" patch and 2015 being worked on, this all needed to be said.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:40 PM   #5
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I can see minor leagues being quite difficult and wouldn't expect that for quite some time but otherwise it's a solid list. Depending on the time period the NHL teams owned the junior teams and it was constantly changing and loaning/selling players to other lower level leagues.

I would like to add to an optional feature that rerates players to be drafted to somewhat match what happened in real life (alexandre Daigle going 1st overall for example). This is something i know they can do but I'd say its a lower priority and rightfully so.
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Old 07-07-2014, 10:11 AM   #6
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As I said earlier, Historical Mode is not our main priority at this point but of course we still want to make improvements to this mode as well. See my answers below:

Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
1 - Player Ratings
The default player ratings are all over the place still, with many legit NHLers still stuck at the default "10" for many attributes. The offensive attributes still don't do a good job of modeling their real life offensive output (I have to re-rate virtually every top player for every team every year to get anything even close to real life production) and the penalty minutes are ridiculously bad... Bobby Orr looks like a Lady Bing winner in FHM.
Please be aware that all player in FHM (historical or not) are hand-edit. We have a great team of researchers but the work-load is just very, very high. We found a way (with templates, careers spots, ...) that gives us a chance to at least have basic NHL historical leagues but of course it will take a lot of time to grow our historical database. If anyone wants to help out, just give me a shout!


Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
2 - Simming to Post 2013
This is a feature every sports simulation has when a career mode is present. This includes OOTP and games like Baseball Mogul. It doesn't make any sense that the game stops dead in 2013...
Yeah, not sure why this is in FHM. If there is no reason (I have to ask Jeff) we can drop that in the patch, if there is a reason we change that for 2015.


Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
3 - Option to turn Retire in actual year off
What if Mike Bossy kept playing? What if Bobby Orr didn't hurt his knee as often? This is hinted at with the checkmark in the new historical game dialog, but isn't actually clickable.
Will be changed in 2015!

Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
4 - Other player development options
Currently all we have is the re-rate in the off-season option. Would like to see more, including a natural progression or three year averages and all the other bells and whistles OOTP offers.
Since we don't share any code with OOTP it is not that simple. In addition, we have our own vision for FHM, that is a lot different than OOTP. In this particular case we will, at some point, add more options (e.g. FHM based career) but most likely it will never have the same options as OOTP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
5 - Minor Leagues
Some kind of minor league system would be nice, rather than the generic reserve list, even f you had to fudge it a bit and made it a non-playable league...
Real historical minor leagues are no option, we just don't have the men-power for that. I don't know if fake minor leagues would work, most likely people would complain about it as well?

Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
6 - Custom historical leagues
In the fictional game setup it would also be nice to be able to select a start year sometime in the past and the option to load new players from the historical database rather than fictional players. This might also solve the problem with #5 (it would allow us to setup minor leagues) and once, I assume, expansion is added to the features of the fictional leagues then we could have our historical sandbox mode..
For the same reasons I mentioned above that is nothing for the near future, as our priorities are in a different direction. Maybe in the future, when the game is much more evolved.
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Old 07-07-2014, 11:33 AM   #7
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Any Minor League is better than no Minor League. The game is fake anyways. If it was real,you would have the exact same teams winning every year(and that's very boring-at least too me).
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Old 07-07-2014, 11:44 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian Palkowski View Post
Yeah, not sure why this is in FHM. If there is no reason (I have to ask Jeff) we can drop that in the patch, if there is a reason we change that for 2015.
It would have required a new player generation system that would work with the historical game, and, possibly, doing (predicted) historical ratings for the NHL prospects in the database who haven't played in the NHL yet. There hasn't been time to do either. The new player generation stuff we've discussed doing for fictional mode might be usable for historical as well, though.
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Old 07-07-2014, 08:56 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian Palkowski View Post
Please be aware that all player in FHM (historical or not) are hand-edit. We have a great team of researchers but the work-load is just very, very high. We found a way (with templates, careers spots, ...) that gives us a chance to at least have basic NHL historical leagues but of course it will take a lot of time to grow our historical database. If anyone wants to help out, just give me a shout!
I've sent entire full DBs with statistically derived offensive ratings (adjusted for different scoring eras) for every NHL player from 1917 to present to Jeff. I have a 2nd version sitting on my desktop now. At the very least you won't have guys like Gilbert Perrault sitting in the minor leagues for the last 3-4 years of their career because his offensive ratings aren't rated. But applying only part of the player ratings won't work, as all the players are rated against each other and the whole point is to keep the ratings consistent so the right players play and perform close to their real life levels.


Anyway, give me an email address and I'll send you the DB. I'm working on a new one which also rates aggression to get penalty minutes working right, but I barely have anyone done yet.

Last edited by G-Nuke; 07-07-2014 at 08:58 PM.
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Old 07-08-2014, 03:55 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
I've sent entire full DBs with statistically derived offensive ratings (adjusted for different scoring eras) for every NHL player from 1917 to present to Jeff. I have a 2nd version sitting on my desktop now. At the very least you won't have guys like Gilbert Perrault sitting in the minor leagues for the last 3-4 years of their career because his offensive ratings aren't rated. But applying only part of the player ratings won't work, as all the players are rated against each other and the whole point is to keep the ratings consistent so the right players play and perform close to their real life levels.


Anyway, give me an email address and I'll send you the DB. I'm working on a new one which also rates aggression to get penalty minutes working right, but I barely have anyone done yet.
Did Jeff respond to your database? I don't want you to feel unheard, so I just make sure.
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Old 07-08-2014, 04:37 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian Palkowski View Post
Did Jeff respond to your database? I don't want you to feel unheard, so I just make sure.
Yes, he did. Unfortunately, after looking at them, they were not going to be particularly useful - as you know, changing one or two individual numbers to is not a good way to make major changes to player performance in the game, since there are many interdependent ratings that drive that. Trying to derive a single rating directly from stats, which was what the database was doing, is not going to work with the vast majority of attributes.
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:47 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by JeffR View Post
Yes, he did. Unfortunately, after looking at them, they were not going to be particularly useful - as you know, changing one or two individual numbers to is not a good way to make major changes to player performance in the game, since there are many interdependent ratings that drive that. Trying to derive a single rating directly from stats, which was what the database was doing, is not going to work with the vast majority of attributes.


It works like a charm for:


Injury
Pass/Shoot
Screening
Getting Open
Passing
Puckhandling
Shooting Accuracy
Shooting Range
Offensive Read


And I'm now having success with Aggression too.


But hey, I guess it's better to have Hall of Famers and superstars spending large parts of their careers sitting in the minors, and completely random results year after year...
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Old 07-09-2014, 04:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
It works like a charm for:


Injury
Pass/Shoot
Screening
Getting Open
Passing
Puckhandling
Shooting Accuracy
Shooting Range
Offensive Read


And I'm now having success with Aggression too.


But hey, I guess it's better to have Hall of Famers and superstars spending large parts of their careers sitting in the minors, and completely random results year after year...
You're trying to change stat production by modifying individual variables based on real-life stats. While that may get you some results that look acceptable, it creates far more problems because you're adjusting them in isolation of every other rating, and using stats that are woefully inadequate, in isolation, to explain why players perform as they do.

In the injury ratings you gave me, for example, you gave a huge number of players a 20 (maximum number of injuries) rating. Since they seem to correspond to guys who only played a limited number of NHL games, I assume you arrived at them by making some kind of straight-line calculation involving games played. For example, Harry Pidhirny and Willie Marshall, a couple of players from the 1950's who had 35 career NHL games between them, both are rated 20. But Pidhirny and Marshall both had 20-year minor league careers where they were rarely injured - the first line in Pidhirny's AHL HOF bio even describes him as "durable and reliable." Making them extremely injury prone in order to limit their NHL careers is not consistent with the way historical mode is designed - the goal is to create accurate representations of players, so the user has to evaluate them in the way they were evaluated historically. Marshall didn't have trouble making the Leafs because he was fragile, he didn't make it because Toronto had better alternatives. If he had started with another team, he might've had a long NHL career, and if someone playing as, say, Boston trades for him in the game, there should be a chance for that to occur without him breaking a leg every time someone touches him.

Now, I'm not saying the database is capable of providing a very accurate picture of every player right now. It's going to take a while, and a lot of work, to get to that point. But shortcuts like trying to make crude equivalencies between stats and ratings won't help the process. It just distorts the overall picture by turning a large number of players whose NHL stats don't tell the whole story about them into weird abstractions of those numbers. That may be appropriate for something like a single-season stat replay game like Strat-O-Matic, but FHM (like OOTP before it) isn't designed as that kind of game. Doing ratings in that manner will just create a big mess that will eventually have to be corrected, making the long task of developing the database even longer.

Finally, a word about historical mode in general: I had to spend a lot of time talking Sebastian and Malte into including it in the game at all, and put hundreds of hours into building the historical database as a volunteer, before I joined the team, in order to convince them to put it in. And it's an ongoing, and often losing, battle to get coding time allotted to it, because, Markus aside, it's something that's a very foreign concept to a European developer: you don't see a historical mode in Football Manager, for example, even though SI is sitting on 20 years' worth of player ratings. But I'm going to keep fighting for it. It would just be nice to have to deal with a little less venom from the userbase over it, when I've said all along it's a work in progress. Try to remember that as a niche (historical) within a niche (hockey) within a niche (sports management games), its future is always going to be on shaky ground, and it doesn't help me making a convincing argument for keeping or adding to it when Sebastian keeps seeing relentless negativity ("completely random results") over historical out of a few people.
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Old 07-09-2014, 05:57 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffR View Post
Finally, a word about historical mode in general: I had to spend a lot of time talking Sebastian and Malte into including it in the game at all... It would just be nice to have to deal with a little less venom from the userbase over it...its future is always going to be on shaky ground, and it doesn't help me making a convincing argument for keeping or adding to it when Sebastian keeps seeing relentless negativity ("completely random results") over historical out of a few people.
I completely support the inclusion of historical in FHM!


I hope Sebastian/others realize the "relentless negativity" turns off many users, and while they continue to follow development closely they don't post (like myself)


And I believe there are many users who long ago accepted the initial difficulties/problems/failures, and understand it will take time to address things, and while they don't post they're quietly/patiently awaiting what was initially expected and the wish/hope for only the best for FHM (like myself)



Best Wishes to Sebastian, Malte, Jeff & to all the researchers/testers!
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Old 07-10-2014, 12:21 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffR View Post
You're trying to change stat production by modifying individual variables based on real-life stats. While that may get you some results that look acceptable, it creates far more problems because you're adjusting them in isolation of every other rating, and using stats that are woefully inadequate, in isolation, to explain why players perform as they do.

In the injury ratings you gave me, for example, you gave a huge number of players a 20 (maximum number of injuries) rating. Since they seem to correspond to guys who only played a limited number of NHL games, I assume you arrived at them by making some kind of straight-line calculation involving games played. For example, Harry Pidhirny and Willie Marshall, a couple of players from the 1950's who had 35 career NHL games between them, both are rated 20. But Pidhirny and Marshall both had 20-year minor league careers where they were rarely injured - the first line in Pidhirny's AHL HOF bio even describes him as "durable and reliable." Making them extremely injury prone in order to limit their NHL careers is not consistent with the way historical mode is designed - the goal is to create accurate representations of players, so the user has to evaluate them in the way they were evaluated historically. Marshall didn't have trouble making the Leafs because he was fragile, he didn't make it because Toronto had better alternatives. If he had started with another team, he might've had a long NHL career, and if someone playing as, say, Boston trades for him in the game, there should be a chance for that to occur without him breaking a leg every time someone touches him.

Now, I'm not saying the database is capable of providing a very accurate picture of every player right now. It's going to take a while, and a lot of work, to get to that point. But shortcuts like trying to make crude equivalencies between stats and ratings won't help the process. It just distorts the overall picture by turning a large number of players whose NHL stats don't tell the whole story about them into weird abstractions of those numbers. That may be appropriate for something like a single-season stat replay game like Strat-O-Matic, but FHM (like OOTP before it) isn't designed as that kind of game. Doing ratings in that manner will just create a big mess that will eventually have to be corrected, making the long task of developing the database even longer.

Finally, a word about historical mode in general: I had to spend a lot of time talking Sebastian and Malte into including it in the game at all, and put hundreds of hours into building the historical database as a volunteer, before I joined the team, in order to convince them to put it in. And it's an ongoing, and often losing, battle to get coding time allotted to it, because, Markus aside, it's something that's a very foreign concept to a European developer: you don't see a historical mode in Football Manager, for example, even though SI is sitting on 20 years' worth of player ratings. But I'm going to keep fighting for it. It would just be nice to have to deal with a little less venom from the userbase over it, when I've said all along it's a work in progress. Try to remember that as a niche (historical) within a niche (hockey) within a niche (sports management games), its future is always going to be on shaky ground, and it doesn't help me making a convincing argument for keeping or adding to it when Sebastian keeps seeing relentless negativity ("completely random results") over historical out of a few people.
a) in this kind of historical game... a player who plays 35 NHL games over several year has a 20 injury rating... and this is somehow a huge issue?


Let me ask you... what is the statistical consequence of this? In the game Pidhirny and Marshall will play very few NHL games in FHM and therefore *GASP* accurate results. Your argument would hold the slightest shred of water if historical minor leagues were in place... but they're not... so what are you trying to accomplish?


b) Historical mode is broken because the player ratings are lacking. The problem isn't the game mode. Hopefully Sebastien is smart enough to recognize that.


There is simply no way anyone is going to rate every player based on research and opinion, especially since many of these players played before we were even born. What I do is start with a straight statistical model and then start tweaking manually for some players to shave the rough edges off, so I start with a complete and workable statistical model and then tweak.


But hey, like I've said numerous times, give me the tools to update the ratings and let's run the models side-by-side. Everybody wins.
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Old 07-10-2014, 12:41 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
In the game Pidhirny and Marshall will play very few NHL games in FHM and therefore *GASP* accurate results. Your argument would hold the slightest shred of water if historical minor leagues were in place... but they're not... so what are you trying to accomplish?
I thought Jeff explained quite well what he was trying to accomplish...
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffR View Post
If he had started with another team, he might've had a long NHL career, and if someone playing as, say, Boston trades for him in the game, there should be a chance for that to occur without him breaking a leg every time someone touches him
Do you not understand what Jeff is saying? Or do you just disagree so strongly you feel your way is the only acceptable way?






Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
like I've said numerous times, give me the tools to update the ratings and let's run the models side-by-side.
I don't see why you're acting like having access to the "editing tools" will make much difference. I don't think the editing tools will allow you to do much that you can't already do in Commissioner Mode (nor do I think it would be much faster). If you're so confident in your work being so superior, I think you should post it as a QuickStart and ask others to try it and comment
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Old 07-10-2014, 01:19 PM   #17
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Umm he cant post a qs. Since he has no access to db only the first yr would have the ratings. Next would revert on recalc to the next db year . AS such They would have to be changed manualy each year following. A pain hence his want to access the db as we have in ootp stats folder for hist play.

PS Nino- really love your ehm 1974 DB, it really is terrific

Last edited by sprague; 07-10-2014 at 01:45 PM.
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Old 07-10-2014, 01:53 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by sprague View Post
Umm he cant post a qs. Since he has no access to db only the first yr would have the ratings. Next would revert on recalc to the next db year . AS such They would have to be changed manualy each year following. A pain hence his want to access the db as we have in ootp stats folder for hist play.
I do understand that...


But he's apparently already sent multiple databases to Jeff (so there should be a couple/few QuickStarts available)...
Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
I've sent entire full DBs with statistically derived offensive ratings (adjusted for different scoring eras) for every NHL player from 1917 to present to Jeff
and...
Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Nuke View Post
It works like a charm for:


Injury
Pass/Shoot
Screening
Getting Open
Passing
Puckhandling
Shooting Accuracy
Shooting Range
Offensive Read
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Old 07-10-2014, 01:58 PM   #19
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Nino- really love your ehm 1974 DB, it really is terrific
Thank you!
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Old 07-10-2014, 04:05 PM   #20
G-Nuke
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Join Date: Aug 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nino33 View Post
I thought Jeff explained quite well what he was trying to accomplish... Do you not understand what Jeff is saying? Or do you just disagree so strongly you feel your way is the only acceptable way?
I explained quite well that Jeff's approach is simply ineffective. And frankly Jeff has admitted as much.


Quick starts are not an option for many obvious reasons:
A) I would still need to re-rate every player, every season manually after season 1.
B) Save games have a funny habit of not working from version to version, so even if I got a set working they wouldn't last


The databases sit in 3 formats, CSV, MS Access, and for a while they were is a SQL Server 2008 database while I was working on some of the bigger formulaic issues. They are based on the hockey-databank Yahoo group's hockey stats database, and is based on a era-flattening formula approach that was used in the Total Sports Hockey Encyclopedia, in addition to my own 15 years experience of statistical analysis for fortune 500 companies, as well as being an original contributor for EHM freeware and atleast a half dozen sports franchise simulation games.


Attached is the CSV for v2. Changes in this version include a whole new way of deriving pass/shoot ratings (in order to re-balance the over abundance of assists going to Defensemen) as well as new formulas for passing, playmaking and offensive read for the same reason. All ratings are internally consistent and adjusted for different scoring periods (50 goals in 2009 > 50 Goals in 1984, but 50 goals in 1984 always greater than 45 goals in 1984 given an equal number of games).


There's my methodology and a complete statistical sample to work with.


There is literally absolutely nothing more I can do.
Attached Files
File Type: zip OffensivePlayerRatingsv2.zip (394.3 KB, 56 views)

Last edited by G-Nuke; 07-10-2014 at 04:10 PM. Reason: EDIT: Compressed attachment included.
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