Should Avoid K Be a Primary Rating?

[Isryion]

Do you think Avoid K should be a primary stat?

The bottom line is I think Avoid K should be a secondary stat, along the lines of bunting or a characteristic of a hitter, or hidden and deduced from stats (like BABIP is) rather than a primary rating. There are two key reasons.

1) Its main value is increasing a hitter’s Contact, but isn’t solely responsible for it. Contact rating tells us enough about the important results (batting average).
2) Having it in the same category as a primary stat overstates and confuses its influence. (There’s no rating that I get more questions about or see more people misinterpret). IMO, it's far and away the most worthless rating of the five primary ratings we talk about with regard to hitters.

What does Avoid K do?

Briefly, we know that Avoid K and the hidden BABIP rating are what make up a player’s Contact rating. Contact rating determines a player’s average.

Beyond that, Avoid K essentially helps determines what kinds of outs a player makes (“productive” outs) and how likely they are to be successful at a hit and run. All of which can be good information, but are they worthy of a primary stat? I don’t think so.

Problems with Avoid K
It is one rating that provides almost no value by itself and isn’t even all that influential with average in most cases.

-A player can have a very high contact rating, and high average, despite having a low avoid K.
-A player with a very high Avoid K can still have a very low contact rating, and thus a low average.

Every other rating can stand on its own or, at worst, provides a powerful supplement to an especially weak rating. Contact and Eye can both supplement each other and stand on their own. Power’s value is pretty clear. Even Gap, the weakest of the four, tells you quite a bit about a how a player’s SLG will play out (are they a slap singles hitter or do they get a lot of extra base hits even if very few leave the yard?)

I just don’t know how being aware of how a player makes his outs puts Avoid K in the same category as the above. So, what am I missing? What value does Avoid K have as a primary rating or do you think it would be better off as a secondary rating?

This might come across as a technicality, but based on the confusion and frustration I see around it being misinterpreted, largely based on its location on the player profile. I think it's worthwhile to have some discussion around it.

[le receveur]

interesting. when i used ratings, i always found hits HR to be the most useless one, and actually would only look at it to down play OPS (ie high OPS with high hits HR was a negative note for equal players)

avoid Ks meant more balls in play, and better for my hit and run offense strategy.

edNote: i don't use ratings anymore

note 2: no such things as productive out. sometime a K is a productive out.

[Bluenoser]

I don't think you've raised a technicality at all.

However I haven't seen the confusion and frustration you mention. In fact this is the first time I've seen it raised as an issue (not saying "issue" in a negative way).

Interesting points made for sure.

Would you recommend it be replaced by something else or just eliminated?

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

I don't think you've raised a technicality at all.

However I haven't seen the confusion and frustration you mention. In fact this is the first time I've seen it raised as an issue (not saying "issue" in a negative way).

Interesting points made for sure.

Would you recommend it be replaced by something else or just eliminated?

I'd prefer to move it or reframe it while moving it. I think it would better fit where the "extra information" is, near "hitter type." I wouldn't care if it was kept as a rating or changed to a %, like pitchers have GB/FB % in that same area of their screen.

I'm not sure what additional rating would be valuable as I hadn't thought that far ahead.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Isryion

I wouldn't care if it was kept as a rating or changed to a %, like pitchers have GB/FB % in that same area of their screen.

this is being changed in OOTP15 to GB pitcher/ FB pitcher....

actually i would hate this idea for avoids K, because i assume it would appear. this is clearly a scouting information, which should not appear when i click show no rating. (FB/GB is just a number, like speed and therefor not Scouting opinion)

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by le receveur

this is being changed in OOTP15 to GB pitcher/ FB pitcher....

actually i would hate this idea for avoids K, because i assume it would appear. this is clearly a scouting information, which should not appear when i click show no rating. (FB/GB is just a number, like speed and therefor not Scouting opinion)

Right, that's my point, that it be just a number like that since it doesn't actually result in any number other than how many times they strike out in a season, it's the same thing.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

I don't think you've raised a technicality at all.

However I haven't seen the confusion and frustration you mention. In fact this is the first time I've seen it raised as an issue (not saying "issue" in a negative way).

To add:

The confusion I see tends to be in people being unclear on how it informs contact (or doesn't), usually, but not always, with people who don't tend to look more deeply behind the scenes. And while that is partially their own fault, the other ratings are much more clear and straight forward.

I did have a friend who knows the game very well (played for a couple of years) and was very deep into statistics get into a debate with me about which of two specific players would hit for a higher average. He was using Player A's avoid K numbers to explain how he wouldn't strike out and would then hit for a higher average (breaking down ABs/K's etc). I pointed out that Player B had a couple points of Contact (10 point scale) over Player A and that's all you needed to know. I then had to explain the hidden BABIP rating and it took awhile for him to understand that essentially all Avoid K was telling you over Contact was exactly what type of outs a player is good at making.

Ironically, he recently had to have that same discussion with another GM who was similarly experienced. I've had that conversation with multiple GMs of varying levels of knowledge.

[Ktulu]

I kinda see where you're coming from, although I think you're undervaluing it. I'd actually like to see all the ratings internalized and have an entirely new way for these ratings to be communicated to the user in the form of a new scouting system and statistical analysis

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Isryion

Right, that's my point, that it be just a number like that since it doesn't actually result in any number other than how many times they strike out in a season, it's the same thing.

but that number already exists for current stats. What the rating gives you is where scout thinks it will go in future.

doesn't the the same apply to all "rating" for current. Power- just look at HR.


GB pitcher is just a naming of type of pitcher.

[Ktulu]

I then had to explain the hidden BABIP rating and it took awhile for him to understand that essentially all Avoid K was telling you over Contact was exactly what type of outs a player is good at making.

Except a lower avoid K results in more outs not just the type.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

I kinda see where you're coming from, although I think you're undervaluing it. I'd actually like to see all the ratings internalized and have an entirely new way for these ratings to be communicated to the user in the form of a new scouting system and statistical analysis

Well, I'm curious. How am I undervaluing it?

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Isryion

To add:

The confusion I see tends to be in people being unclear on how it informs contact (or doesn't), usually, but not always, with people who don't tend to look more deeply behind the scenes. And while that is partially their own fault, the other ratings are much more clear and straight forward.

I did have a friend who knows the game very well (played for a couple of years) and was very deep into statistics get into a debate with me about which of two specific players would hit for a higher average. He was using Player A's avoid K numbers to explain how he wouldn't strike out and would then hit for a higher average (breaking down ABs/K's etc). I pointed out that Player B had a couple points of Contact (10 point scale) over Player A and that's all you needed to know. I then had to explain the hidden BABIP rating and it took awhile for him to understand that essentially all Avoid K was telling you over Contact was exactly what type of outs a player is good at making.

Ironically, he recently had to have that same discussion with another GM who was similarly experienced. I've had that conversation with multiple GMs of varying levels of knowledge.

Sorry, all i read here is your friend didn't understand what the rating was telling him. Fine, better user guide is obviously needed. Not sure how it makes the stat irrelevant.

my interpretation

Contact: quality of the strike when the ball is hit
Gap power: how many doubles and triples he will hit when he puts ball in play
HR Power: How far it will go when he hits
eye/discipline: how many walks he will get
Avoids K: how often he will put it in play

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

Except a lower avoid K results in more outs not just the type.

This is what I mean about confusion.

Since Contact determines batting average and Avoid K is already rolled into Contact, Avoid K is really only telling you what type of outs would be made: as le receveur states, how often a player puts it in play.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by le receveur

Sorry, all i read here is your friend didn't understand what the rating was telling him. Fine, better user guide is obviously needed. Not sure how it makes the stat irrelevant.

...
Avoids K: how often he will put it in play

Correct, but I've seen that confusion commonly repeated and it isn't just because of the user guide. It's also because Avoid K is being rolled into contact.

For me, once I have the Contact rating, how often my scout lets me know a player will strike out can be useful, but it nowhere near matches the other four pieces of information there.

The people I see valuing Avoids K are those that don't understand how it already works within Contact and actually think it is adding something to or taking something away from a player's projected batting average in addition to contact.

I think the best way to put it is that Avoid K is a subset of Contact that tells us the breakdown of outs a player will make. Let's take this the other way. If a rating informing strikeouts is useful, why not ratings on ground outs and fly outs?

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Isryion

I think the best way to put it is that Avoid K is a subset of Contact that tells us the breakdown of outs a player will make. Let's take this the other way. If a rating informing strikeouts is useful, why not ratings on ground outs and fly outs?

interesting thing, is i always saw it the other way, with Contact a sub rating of Avoids K.

Avoid K: how many times i will hit the ball
Contact: The quality of those hit...


but yes they are intertwined, i just think they tell a different story. and like most value in Baseball, everyone sees them differently. people will look at HR Power. i think it is useless for what i manage....


but then again, after 2 months in OOTP i removed the ratings, because i let the result tell me the story...

[Ktulu]

Originally Posted by Isryion

This is what I mean about confusion.

Since Contact determines batting average and Avoid K is already rolled into Contact, Avoid K is really only telling you what type of outs would be made: as le receveur states, how often a player puts it in play.

I see what you're saying in a strict sense, but I don't think the relationship is that simple. The avoid K tells you quite a bit about what the contact rating means and how it will develop.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by le receveur

interesting thing, is i always saw it the other way, with Contact a sub rating of Avoids K.

Avoid K: how many times i will hit the ball
Contact: The quality of those hit...


but yes they are intertwined, i just think they tell a different story. and like most value in Baseball, everyone sees them differently. people will look at HR Power. i think it is useless for what i manage....


but then again, after 2 months in OOTP i removed the ratings, because i let the result tell me the story...

When Contact has multiple ratings that go into it, that, by simple definition, makes Avoid K a subset.

I understand your point about value, though I disagree. Players with high contact and low Avoids K can be all-stars. Players with low contact and high avoids K will struggle to be of any value at the plate.

[Fyrestorm3]

Originally Posted by Isryion

Since Contact determines batting average and Avoid K is already rolled into Contact, Avoid K is really only telling you what type of outs would be made: as le receveur states, how often a player puts it in play.

This is true. This is also why I view Avoid K as a critical rating to know.

A high number of strikeouts means a guy isn't putting the ball in play, which also tends to mean that he's going to have a hard time maintaining a high batting average or OBP (it will tend to "level out" over time, due to the ball not being put in play as much). I have found that the strikeout stat is one of the single most key stats in determining if a guy is going to keep producing, or if he's just getting lucky. A high average with a lot of strikeouts will tend to indicate a mere hot streak, while the same average with few strikeouts indicates a trend. These aren't hard facts, but it happens more often than not.

Therefore, Avoid K seems like a very useful rating, and if I ever played with ratings on, I would base a lot of decisions around it.

[RchW]

I don't see any confusion or frustration expressed but the the OP has a good point. See my post below in another thread where I suggest that avoid K is derivative. In other words if any given player improves pitch recognition and contact ability both in and out of the strike zone (better contact leading to hits and tougher outs) then by definition his avoid K rating will rise. What OOTP can't simulate is the organic response by pitchers, managers and pitching coaches that causes observers to say "Joe Blow" has really cut down on his K's. Not really. Joe Blow has expanded his "honey spot" and pitchers have to move further to the edges and even outside the strike zone (Cabrera). The problem is if you want to replace avoid K you may have to introduce at least 3 other ratings, something like "contact in zone" "contact on edge" and "pitch recognition", which is not eye but the ability to recognize a non-strike that you can hammer. I think we know inherently that all elite hitters do this, some more than others.

I may be nuts but that's how I visualize it.

Originally Posted by RchW

I like the idea of some coaching influence in defensive skills improvement and in base running skills. I see these skills as being teachable within reason. I also see more realism in coaching players to improve BI or baseball intelligence. Perhaps that should be incorporated into personality ratings where a player might be more likely to make the right play vs actually getting a higher rating.

I'm not convinced that below average core skills (OOTP) should be influenced much if at all by coaching or training. I'm not convinced that OOTP ratings actually correlate to the skills that players have or work on. For example avoid K and Eye ratings may be representations of what statistical output a player produces (or is projected to produce) but not actually stand alone skills in each area. Is HR power a separate skill or is it derivative of other skills? One cannot hit HR if you produce GB.

To me it is not logical to work on a player's poor core skills. It's much more believable that teams would work on the better skills or high potential skills, because the player is more receptive to help and more likely to work at it. Take Miguel Cabrera for example. He was obviously highly skilled from day one but it can be seen from his career progression that he worked on his best skills (contact and power) to the point where he is clearly the best combination in the game today. Now one could look at his strike out rate and say that he improved that skill but I'd submit that it's due to his great contact/power rate and that pitchers don't throw him strikes. This is a zero sum game. OOTP's ratings reflect the players (expected or previous) statistical output but may not accurately define certain skills like avoid K and eye when these are affected by pitcher strategy and batter skills in other areas. Increased contact, better contact will by definition reduce strikeouts. Knowing that pitchers will not challenge you, will by definition increase BB.

Cabrera is a perfect example. He is known for making good contact with non-strikes, so when he swings it is more likely to be at a pitch he can hit, but if he lays off it is more likely to be a ball. Either way his actual skills are contact with power. The eye and avoid K skills are derivative.

Jose Bautista didn't improve his HR or power skill when he came to Toronto. He used a simple set up tip (Gaston and Murphy) to get the bat started earlier. The result. He made better contact more often. This caused him to hit the ball in the air. This resulted in less GB outs, less K's and way more HR. He didn't improve a perceived bad avoid K rating.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

I see what you're saying in a strict sense, but I don't think the relationship is that simple.

I think in terms of basic math and for current ratings, it is.

Example (using 20 point scale):
Player A: 15 CON, 8 Avoids K
Player B: 15 CON, 15 Avoids K

Also, all other things being equal and ignoring randomness, both players should produce an equal number of hits over a season. Player B may hit a couple more sacrifice flies, reach an extra time or two on an error, and move a couple additional runners over on outs. He'll also hit into more double plays.

So, all things being equal, knowing avoids K here can be useful, but it's not really significant. Not to mention, things aren't really that neat and there are usually other differences, including fielding, that separate a player and other things I can think of (at least on the field) are going to have a bigger impact than avoids K.

Originally Posted by Ktulu

The avoid K tells you quite a bit about what the contact rating means and how it will develop.

This is something I'd like to study more: whether Avoids K or BABIP ratings decline more quickly. If BABIP declines more quickly a player who's contact is heavily reliant on that will end up declining faster and a high Avoids K could slow it or viceversa. This, though, again doesn't make it worthy of a primary rating.