SPs and Suggested Role Change

hefalumps · 01-18-2014, 11:34 AM

I have a 26-year old SP in the middle of his fifth season.

Through his career, he is 56-42 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The last two full seasons he was 14-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 14-9 with a 2.87 ERA.

His ratings were largely unchanged over the past few months of this season - on a scale of 20, 7 stuff, 14 movement, and 12 control. His stamina is 6 out of 20, which has been his only real knock as he can't go deep into games.

This past month, the AI (my scout) has decided that his suggested role should be "Bullpen". Although his numeric ratings actually got better (movement went up to 15), he's gone from being a 4-star SP to a 1.5-star SP. If I change his position to MR he's a 4.5-star MR.

In addition to the scout's assessment, his performance has taken a huge hit in the past month. After going 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA in six starts last month, he's 1-2 with a 8.10 ERA in four starts this month.

My question is... what exactly makes this happen? Is it the low stamina? I can see it happening with guys in their mid-to-late 30s, but the kid's 26. I want to know what "warning signs" to look for so that I don't sign guys like this to long-term extensions. I was planning on this guy to anchor my rotation for a few more years, and now I'm scuffling to figure out what to do. And I've got a couple of other young SPs with similar makeup that I'm concerned will go the same way.

If anyone has any advice on how to avoid this from happening, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 11:45 AM

would you mind posting his yearly stats? also what is his work ethics?

edit: also 4 starts is not really relevant

hefalumps · 01-18-2014, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

would you mind posting his yearly stats? also what is his work ethics?

edit: also 4 starts is not really relevant

Yeah I'll post them shortly.

And I know 4 starts is a small sample size, but the fact that it coincides with the scout's "re-assessment" definitely has me concerned. Maybe he'll bounce back and be OK as a serviceable back-end rotation guy, but I'd been using him more as a 1 or 2.

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 12:19 PM

I don't really implicitly trust the scout and pitching coach. here is one of my pitcher example:
Name: francisco.JPG
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Francisco (named changed to protect his innocence) came to the team at 26. he does have 5/10 stamina. Ever since he joined PC and Scout have tried to put him in bullpen. I had to over rule them regularly and he always delivered. he is now 31, he is my 6th starter, and I now checked rated 0.5 stars as starter, but 4 of his 5 starts would qualify as QS.
I know he will always be prone to give up the long ball....but has long as control goes on i'm fine with him out there..

hefalumps · 01-18-2014, 12:44 PM

Well hopefully I can salvage something out of the guy, but my other "ace" on my staff just finished recovering from a 14-month injury - haven't seen any similar talent hits happen to him yet, but imagine they could come.

I guess I'll just be wary of under 50% stamina ratings when drafting SPs. I have another guy who was great as a SP last year but fell apart this year and is now being suggested as "borderline starter" - I've got him in the minors trying to figure things out. And I have one other top prospect who was great in his rookie year, has been decent this year, but his stamina is 6/20 and I imagine he may end up in the same boat. Guess long term I need to project these guys as bullpen guys.

I'll post stats or screens of some of these guys the next time I'm on that computer.

snepp · 01-18-2014, 01:19 PM

6 stamina on the 20 scale is right on the borderline of where there is a hard AI evaluation cutoff between starter/reliever (a 50 rating in the editor).

I'm guessing that his stamina was slightly above that 50 mark, once it dropped below that the evaluation is going to see him as a reliever no matter how good his other ratings are.

hefalumps · 01-18-2014, 02:53 PM

Thanks snepp - so I'll keep a close eye on stamina when drafting in the future.

Attached are the pitcher's stats and ratings. Also ratings for two similar low-stamina pitchers that are younger (one is in his third season and the other in his second) that could be headed in the same direction.

BIG17EASY · 01-18-2014, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hefalumps

Thanks snepp - so I'll keep a close eye on stamina when drafting in the future.

Attached are the pitcher's stats and ratings. Also ratings for two similar low-stamina pitchers that are younger (one is in his third season and the other in his second) that could be headed in the same direction.

Two things jump out to me. His K rate had been slowly declining heading into this year, and now his BB rate is way up. I'd wait to see if things even out after another half dozen starts before starting to worry too much. With such a low K rate, he's going to struggle to win games if he keeps allowing so many baserunners. It looks like he's pitching like he did in 1951, so it shouldn't be a total surprise, though.

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Two things jump out to me. His K rate had been slowly declining heading into this year, and now his BB rate is way up. I'd wait to see if things even out after another half dozen starts before starting to worry too much. With such a low K rate, he's going to struggle to win games if he keeps allowing so many baserunners. It looks like he's pitching like he did in 1951, so it shouldn't be a total surprise, though.

same here. I wouldn't think his stamina is the reason he is out to the BP. is peripherals are worse over last 3 seasons, enough to worry. if he pitched the same way as 2 years ago, sure he would still be in rotation. he looks like a 6th starter by now. he could also be really efficient as your long guy in the BP

also he is a high GB% pitcher. how is your defense behind him. any change would really affect him

BIG17EASY · 01-18-2014, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

also he is a high GB% pitcher. how is your defense behind him. any change would really affect him

His BABIP hasn't skyrocketed, so I wouldn't think the defense has changed a lot. But it would help to see his FIP for all five years.

BIG17EASY · 01-18-2014, 05:04 PM

The other thing to consider is that it's just a product of random talent change. It happens in OOTP just like in real life. I'm a Mets fan and in 2006 and 2007, it looked like John Maine was going to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for a long time. Injuries played a small role, but he began to digress in 2008 before the injuries, and he was only 27 that year. So that could explain the drop in his ratings.

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

His BABIP hasn't skyrocketed, so I wouldn't think the defense has changed a lot. But it would help to see his FIP for all five years.

True. I was concerned my more errors, so having to pitch to more batters and with low stamina that affecting effectiveness. but you are right you would then likely expect higher BABIP

BIG17EASY · 01-18-2014, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

True. I was concerned my more errors, so having to pitch to more batters and with low stamina that affecting effectiveness. but you are right you would then likely expect higher BABIP

The biggest issue is the walks. If he pitches 212 innings (roughly the average of his past four seasons), he's on pace to walk 92, which is way up compared to any of the past four seasons.

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

The biggest issue is the walks. If he pitches 212 innings (roughly the average of his past four seasons), he's on pace to walk 92, which is way up compared to any of the past four seasons.

for sure. he will also have a career high in HR as current pace. and I don't think any of these are stamina related. so pure decline, and was wondering what else changed around him. if you look at 51 when his BB rate was higher, he had really low HR%. now both are higher

as for the other guys. one on left is a middle/long reliever. the other could be a successful starter, but set up a quick hook on him...

le receveur · 01-18-2014, 05:38 PM

side note: can you tell how boring the Jays offseason has been, when I have way more fun looking at OOTP questions....

RchW · 01-18-2014, 07:43 PM

His stuff is well below average on a 20 scale. Same with his individual pitch ratings. I'm surprised he can be effective at all with an average fastball and sinker and a below average changeup. Fastball speed at 90mph is not great but I assume the velocity is era appropriate for the 1950's. If not then he's not good at all.

With a fastball sinker changeup repertoire he really needs a superior change of speed to be effective. Even with a better fastball lack of a good change will not have him miss many bats. I'd be looking for a fastball at 15 and a change at 15-20 to be effective, but even then he is a two-pitch pitcher and not destined to be around in the 7th inning.

Individual pitch ratings are critical in OOTP. A below average 3rd pitch can be enough to limit effectiveness as a starter.

hefalumps · 01-18-2014, 10:12 PM

Thanks everyone for the input. In his rookie season he definitely seemed more like a back-of-the-rotation type guy, but after three straight good years I got used to expecting him to be top-of-the-rotation.

So I'm taking this as a guy who might have been overachieving and has now come back to earth. And in the future I'll keep an eye on stamina and individual pitch ratings to make sure I don't invest too much money in guys like this. I'm only on the hook for one more year at below market average with this kid, so if he ends up tanking it it's no biggie. It just means I may have to significantly re-tool my rotation for next year.

Oh, and to answer some of the specific questions - he hasn't had any significant injury history, and his defense behind him this year has worsened. It shouldn't have, as he has almost the same exact team as he had behind him last year, but for whatever reason my team has underperformed across the board this season both defensively and offensively. It's been a mess.

01-18-2014, 11:34 AM	#1
hefalumps All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,392	SPs and Suggested Role Change I have a 26-year old SP in the middle of his fifth season. Through his career, he is 56-42 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The last two full seasons he was 14-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 14-9 with a 2.87 ERA. His ratings were largely unchanged over the past few months of this season - on a scale of 20, 7 stuff, 14 movement, and 12 control. His stamina is 6 out of 20, which has been his only real knock as he can't go deep into games. This past month, the AI (my scout) has decided that his suggested role should be "Bullpen". Although his numeric ratings actually got better (movement went up to 15), he's gone from being a 4-star SP to a 1.5-star SP. If I change his position to MR he's a 4.5-star MR. In addition to the scout's assessment, his performance has taken a huge hit in the past month. After going 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA in six starts last month, he's 1-2 with a 8.10 ERA in four starts this month. My question is... what exactly makes this happen? Is it the low stamina? I can see it happening with guys in their mid-to-late 30s, but the kid's 26. I want to know what "warning signs" to look for so that I don't sign guys like this to long-term extensions. I was planning on this guy to anchor my rotation for a few more years, and now I'm scuffling to figure out what to do. And I've got a couple of other young SPs with similar makeup that I'm concerned will go the same way. If anyone has any advice on how to avoid this from happening, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!

01-18-2014, 11:45 AM	#2
le receveur All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2013 Location: canada Posts: 1,736	would you mind posting his yearly stats? also what is his work ethics? edit: also 4 starts is not really relevant Last edited by le receveur; 01-18-2014 at 11:46 AM.

01-18-2014, 12:19 PM	#4
le receveur All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2013 Location: canada Posts: 1,736	I don't really implicitly trust the scout and pitching coach. here is one of my pitcher example: Francisco (named changed to protect his innocence) came to the team at 26. he does have 5/10 stamina. Ever since he joined PC and Scout have tried to put him in bullpen. I had to over rule them regularly and he always delivered. he is now 31, he is my 6th starter, and I now checked rated 0.5 stars as starter, but 4 of his 5 starts would qualify as QS. I know he will always be prone to give up the long ball....but has long as control goes on i'm fine with him out there..

01-18-2014, 02:53 PM	#7
hefalumps All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,392	Thanks snepp - so I'll keep a close eye on stamina when drafting in the future. Attached are the pitcher's stats and ratings. Also ratings for two similar low-stamina pitchers that are younger (one is in his third season and the other in his second) that could be headed in the same direction. Attached Images

01-18-2014, 07:43 PM	#16
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	His stuff is well below average on a 20 scale. Same with his individual pitch ratings. I'm surprised he can be effective at all with an average fastball and sinker and a below average changeup. Fastball speed at 90mph is not great but I assume the velocity is era appropriate for the 1950's. If not then he's not good at all. With a fastball sinker changeup repertoire he really needs a superior change of speed to be effective. Even with a better fastball lack of a good change will not have him miss many bats. I'd be looking for a fastball at 15 and a change at 15-20 to be effective, but even then he is a two-pitch pitcher and not destined to be around in the 7th inning. Individual pitch ratings are critical in OOTP. A below average 3rd pitch can be enough to limit effectiveness as a starter. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

01-18-2014, 12:44 PM	#5
hefalumps All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,392	Well hopefully I can salvage something out of the guy, but my other "ace" on my staff just finished recovering from a 14-month injury - haven't seen any similar talent hits happen to him yet, but imagine they could come. I guess I'll just be wary of under 50% stamina ratings when drafting SPs. I have another guy who was great as a SP last year but fell apart this year and is now being suggested as "borderline starter" - I've got him in the minors trying to figure things out. And I have one other top prospect who was great in his rookie year, has been decent this year, but his stamina is 6/20 and I imagine he may end up in the same boat. Guess long term I need to project these guys as bullpen guys. I'll post stats or screens of some of these guys the next time I'm on that computer.

01-18-2014, 01:19 PM	#6
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,800	6 stamina on the 20 scale is right on the borderline of where there is a hard AI evaluation cutoff between starter/reliever (a 50 rating in the editor). I'm guessing that his stamina was slightly above that 50 mark, once it dropped below that the evaluation is going to see him as a reliever no matter how good his other ratings are.

01-18-2014, 05:04 PM	#11
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	The other thing to consider is that it's just a product of random talent change. It happens in OOTP just like in real life. I'm a Mets fan and in 2006 and 2007, it looked like John Maine was going to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for a long time. Injuries played a small role, but he began to digress in 2008 before the injuries, and he was only 27 that year. So that could explain the drop in his ratings.

01-18-2014, 05:38 PM	#15
le receveur All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2013 Location: canada Posts: 1,736	side note: can you tell how boring the Jays offseason has been, when I have way more fun looking at OOTP questions....

01-18-2014, 10:12 PM	#17
hefalumps All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,392	Thanks everyone for the input. In his rookie season he definitely seemed more like a back-of-the-rotation type guy, but after three straight good years I got used to expecting him to be top-of-the-rotation. So I'm taking this as a guy who might have been overachieving and has now come back to earth. And in the future I'll keep an eye on stamina and individual pitch ratings to make sure I don't invest too much money in guys like this. I'm only on the hook for one more year at below market average with this kid, so if he ends up tanking it it's no biggie. It just means I may have to significantly re-tool my rotation for next year. Oh, and to answer some of the specific questions - he hasn't had any significant injury history, and his defense behind him this year has worsened. It shouldn't have, as he has almost the same exact team as he had behind him last year, but for whatever reason my team has underperformed across the board this season both defensively and offensively. It's been a mess.