Minor league strikeout numbers

slugga27 · 08-06-2013, 11:33 AM

I'm having trouble with the lower levels of the minor leagues having really unrealistic/underwhelming strikeout numbers. I know the strikeouts modifier will fix this issue, but I'm not sure what I should set it at. Using the stats from the realistic MiLB stats thread, the computer spit out modifiers of .700 and lower for most of the minor leagues. This has translated to, in one league, the league leader in strikeouts averaging 7.5 K/9. And it gets worse the further down the ladder I go.

What I have done is changed the strikeout modifier to .900 for all minor leagues, but I don't know for sure if that will be too much of a jump.

Can someone shed some light on this and maybe share their strikeout numbers so that I can get accurate stats?

RchW · 08-06-2013, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

I'm having trouble with the lower levels of the minor leagues having really unrealistic/underwhelming strikeout numbers. I know the strikeouts modifier will fix this issue, but I'm not sure what I should set it at. Using the stats from the realistic MiLB stats thread, the computer spit out modifiers of .700 and lower for most of the minor leagues. This has translated to, in one league, the league leader in strikeouts averaging 7.5 K/9. And it gets worse the further down the ladder I go.

What I have done is changed the strikeout modifier to .900 for all minor leagues, but I don't know for sure if that will be too much of a jump.

Can someone shed some light on this and maybe share their strikeout numbers so that I can get accurate stats?

You can't use individual k/9 rates to assess the realism of league total strikeouts. It's apples and oranges. The modifier produced in ST is based on player ratings at the time of the autocalc. It looks like OOTP's calculations showed some talented k type pitchers or the opposite k-prone batters, which resulted in the reduced modifier. The problem is that if these pitchers get promoted the replacements may not be as highly rated so individual k/9 rates will suffer and the league total k may be down vs RL. Did you make sure to check the league level stats of promoted pitchers and discount the league level stats of demoted pitchers?

I'm not sure there is a quick solution. League totals and modifiers take a few seasons to level out so patience is required. See below for my minor league k totals vs RL for my current league. I consider anything from 0.9 to 1.1 to be great. Generally k is one of the most stable of the OOTP critical league totals output.

YMMV.

1.042 IL

0.992 PCL

0.989 EL

0.974 SL

0.992 TXL

0.960 CAL

0.983 CAR

0.931 FSL

slugga27 · 08-06-2013, 01:32 PM

I wasn't arguing that the output was off relative to the modifiers. I was arguing that the modifiers were off. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the modifiers were well below .900. Do you have the modifiers for Short-Season A and Rookie or do you not use those levels?

Sweed · 08-06-2013, 01:54 PM

Well to your example of .700 K modifier and then you changing to .900 should result in a 20% increase in k's. So in your case you should be able to determine on a percentage basis how much you want to increase k's and then adjust the LTM by that percentage.

IE.. If your LTM is .650 and your k's are running 30% below your expected k's you would simply increase the LTM by .300 to a new LTM of .950. This won't be as accurate as an auto-calc (3 season sim and adjustment) on a stable league player movement wise but, it should quickly get you in the ballpark of where you want to be.

FWIW I haven't had this issue in my minor leagues and some reasons I think I don't is..

I use ghost players so that in itself may somewhat stabilize the output from the player pool (though that is only a guess).

My minor league schedule starts at least a week after MLB season. This assures the MLB and Minor league rosters are somewhat set giving a more stable ratings pool for autocalc to utilize.

I don't autocalc until the day before opening day. Again with the goal of having the most accurate player pool.

Sharing the LTM's of my league isn't going to help you out much. My player pool and ratings of those players could be vastly different than your league meaning we would use very different modifiers to get the same stat output.

Hope that helps.

edit to correct spelling

08-06-2013, 11:33 AM	#1
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	Minor league strikeout numbers I'm having trouble with the lower levels of the minor leagues having really unrealistic/underwhelming strikeout numbers. I know the strikeouts modifier will fix this issue, but I'm not sure what I should set it at. Using the stats from the realistic MiLB stats thread, the computer spit out modifiers of .700 and lower for most of the minor leagues. This has translated to, in one league, the league leader in strikeouts averaging 7.5 K/9. And it gets worse the further down the ladder I go. What I have done is changed the strikeout modifier to .900 for all minor leagues, but I don't know for sure if that will be too much of a jump. Can someone shed some light on this and maybe share their strikeout numbers so that I can get accurate stats?

08-06-2013, 01:54 PM	#4
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 7,035	Well to your example of .700 K modifier and then you changing to .900 should result in a 20% increase in k's. So in your case you should be able to determine on a percentage basis how much you want to increase k's and then adjust the LTM by that percentage. IE.. If your LTM is .650 and your k's are running 30% below your expected k's you would simply increase the LTM by .300 to a new LTM of .950. This won't be as accurate as an auto-calc (3 season sim and adjustment) on a stable league player movement wise but, it should quickly get you in the ballpark of where you want to be. FWIW I haven't had this issue in my minor leagues and some reasons I think I don't is.. I use ghost players so that in itself may somewhat stabilize the output from the player pool (though that is only a guess). My minor league schedule starts at least a week after MLB season. This assures the MLB and Minor league rosters are somewhat set giving a more stable ratings pool for autocalc to utilize. I don't autocalc until the day before opening day. Again with the goal of having the most accurate player pool. Sharing the LTM's of my league isn't going to help you out much. My player pool and ratings of those players could be vastly different than your league meaning we would use very different modifiers to get the same stat output. Hope that helps. edit to correct spelling Last edited by Sweed; 08-06-2013 at 01:55 PM.

08-06-2013, 01:32 PM	#3
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	I wasn't arguing that the output was off relative to the modifiers. I was arguing that the modifiers were off. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the modifiers were well below .900. Do you have the modifiers for Short-Season A and Rookie or do you not use those levels?