Kid....you got potential...POTENTIAL?

Leefoo · 07-02-2013, 10:32 AM

I posted this on the iOOTP forum.
I thought I would try this over here as it seems folks are confused bout potential.

=======
Ok...here's the scenario.

I took 4 highly rated MR pitchers who were traditionally Starters (Carlton, Balor Moore, Mike Caldwell and someone else (Busby?)...can't think of who it was).

When I made them SPs, they were all 20-24 rated. I then simmed a whole season. All four of them had pretty darn good seasons....low ERAs and high win totals.

Therefore, I expected their SP ratings to go up....it didn't. The best was 25. Honest to goodness, I don't think I've had that many have their ratings GO up.

I traded away Steve Kline (21/67) and his season was okay for his new team. The next year he was a 52!!!

What the heck am *I* doing wrong? Also, at what point in the off season are the final ratings for the coming season available?

One year, I needed a SP so I paid a lot for a FA SP named Drysdale. He was a 76! By the time the season started he was in the 40s??!!

Also, how does potential 'play' for hitters and fielders. I have seen regular players have bad years and their rating goes up and vice versa.

I have also seen 'bad' fielders like Boog Powell go to a '64' in LF while 'good' fielders like Mays, Aaron, Blair, etc, drop like a rock. All were regulars. What is the rhyme and reason there?

Any help would be appreciated.

Potentially thanks,

Lee

06-30-2013, 01:42 PM #2 (permalink) Leefoo

Forgot to add
I did another season with the same four pitchers. This time they didn't do as well, but the (Overall) ratings didn't change.

Also, do any of those individual potential ratings mean anything?

Thx

r0nster · 07-02-2013, 10:48 AM

thats why I like this game so much .... no game is exactly alike or the same the statistical probabilities makes for more fun.

David Watts · 07-02-2013, 10:50 AM

The first thing I think you need to tell us is whether you are using recalc?

olivertheorem · 07-02-2013, 08:47 PM

Potentials don't play. Currents do. Potentials are just what they may become in the future. They don't influence outcomes in any fashion I've ever seen. If they did, a lot of my minor leaguers would be playing better. A player's current ratings depend on a combination of their ratings and stats, with the values based on the AI Evaluation settings (which are somewhere in league setup, don't remember exactly where).

If the development engine is deciding things, as opposed to recalc, whether or not a player hits his potentials depends on a number of factors, including but not limited to playing time (in the minors only), coaching, work ethic, and intelligence (not to mention the algorithm that decides if these things work over any given period).

Some players will hit their potentials, some won't. Some players will see increases in potentials, while others will see their potential fade. It's baseball.

Leefoo · 07-04-2013, 08:46 AM

What/Where is that?

Thx

Leefoo · 07-04-2013, 08:49 AM

Thx....btw, I am doing some quick plays to test out the game's 'guts'.

Lary Sorenson has stayed at 20/79 for 3 straight seasons. And, for 3 straight seasons he has pitched to an ERA UNDER 3.00!!!

So.........is there a way to tell from any of his potential ratings that he is going to pitch well? And why hasn't his overall rating improved?

I just need more info. You'd think there'd be some kind of 'sticky' out there describing this part of the game. especially since other teams always try to trade for these kinds of guys?

Thx!

David Watts · 07-04-2013, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leefoo

What/Where is that?

Thx

If your using real players and have recalc on, ratings are going to change on a yearly basis based on that players real life stats. Ugh, I'm sorry, I just read the part about this being iootp. I don't own that and therefore I shouldn't have opened my big mouth. So very sorry.

olivertheorem · 07-04-2013, 03:42 PM

I didn't realize this was iOOTP either, but the following should still apply.

"Currents" are the ratings saying how good the player is now. "Potentials" are the ones saying how good they might get. For example, when you say a player is 20/79 overall, that means he is a 20-rated player now, but might get up to 79 eventually. Individual ratings should have the same displayed for them. A hitter may be 35/55 (20-80 scale) in Contact, for example.

For how well they should be playing now, you want to look at the currents, not the potentials.

rudel.dietrich · 07-04-2013, 05:22 PM

If they are pitching well, does their overall rating really even matter?

olivertheorem · 07-04-2013, 09:07 PM

Nope.

Silent_Thunder · 07-05-2013, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

If they are pitching well, does their overall rating really even matter?

My father had a saying about his cars that applies "They may be ugly, cheap, and full of dings, scrapes and dents, but if it runs, it runs."

The Wolf · 07-05-2013, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

If they are pitching well, does their overall rating really even matter?

You should play stats only.

Leefoo · 07-09-2013, 03:20 PM

Okay, I 'get' the "if they are playing well" why worry about potential argument?

Well, then, in that case, what's the point of having potential? Seriously, if a player's "currents" says '20' and his potential is '79' why doesn't he change after three good years?!

I have simmed lots of seasons in OOTP (and iOOTP, but that's another forum) and have seen players' potential drop, despite continued success! They never seem to get their 'currents' up to a potential level, but I HAVE seen the potential drop.

I have tried checking/unchecking the different ways of 'developing' players and nothing worked. Twice (with different developing methods selected), I set up a team with FIVE 20/** (** meaning anything from 60 to 80 potential) starting pitchers and EVERYONE of them, despite some mixed success over the years (I simmed 5 years - some did better and were more consistent) had their potential DROP!

I have done the same with batters. Batters, on a whole, seem to get better than pitchers over the years, and I have seen more of their 'Currents' go up near their potential than pitchers. It is the rare pitcher whose "Current" rating approaches their potential.

When drafting or trading, the AI seems to love these 'potential' guys. I'm not sure why, lol.

I just can't figure this "Potential" thing out. Bad seasons seem to take a player down, yet good seasons (or a string of good seasons) seem to do nothing (esp for pitchers).

If you have ANY advice, pls, uh, advise.

Thx

Lee

olivertheorem · 07-09-2013, 09:44 PM

Don't know if this is up your alley or not, but I keep a spreadsheet with the pertinent-to-me ratings for every player in my entire organization. I update this every time the ratings update (start of every month during the season). I've seen plenty of players go up and down, in both currents and potential. Maybe this would help you see improvement better? I think decline is generally more obvious than improvement.

Leefoo · 07-11-2013, 11:02 AM

oliver....I might try that....I was unaware that they went up and down each month.

I am enjoying learning all about this game. It kinda makes Strat, Action and those others pale in comparison!

olivertheorem · 07-11-2013, 09:04 PM

They usually don't move a lot (unless you hire a new scout then they will, especially the younger guys), but they do move. It's nice to get to bump a fringy prospect's potentials up five points at a time (I play 20-80) every month...not that this happens all that often, but sometimes it does.

Then there's the times when I'm doing it and go "Hey, this guy jumped a ton! What do I do with him now?" That happened with Austin Wates during 2014. Turned from a middling AAA outfielder into a legit everyday MLB LF. Left him in AAA for the rest of the year to make sure it stuck, then gave him the everyday LF job in 2015. He only won a Gold Glove and was worth roughly 5 WAR.

If you want to PM me your email address, Leefoo, I can email you my spreadsheet.

07-02-2013, 10:32 AM	#1
Leefoo Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 437	Kid....you got potential...POTENTIAL? I posted this on the iOOTP forum. I thought I would try this over here as it seems folks are confused bout potential. ======= Ok...here's the scenario. I took 4 highly rated MR pitchers who were traditionally Starters (Carlton, Balor Moore, Mike Caldwell and someone else (Busby?)...can't think of who it was). When I made them SPs, they were all 20-24 rated. I then simmed a whole season. All four of them had pretty darn good seasons....low ERAs and high win totals. Therefore, I expected their SP ratings to go up....it didn't. The best was 25. Honest to goodness, I don't think I've had that many have their ratings GO up. I traded away Steve Kline (21/67) and his season was okay for his new team. The next year he was a 52!!! What the heck am I doing wrong? Also, at what point in the off season are the final ratings for the coming season available? One year, I needed a SP so I paid a lot for a FA SP named Drysdale. He was a 76! By the time the season started he was in the 40s??!! Also, how does potential 'play' for hitters and fielders. I have seen regular players have bad years and their rating goes up and vice versa. I have also seen 'bad' fielders like Boog Powell go to a '64' in LF while 'good' fielders like Mays, Aaron, Blair, etc, drop like a rock. All were regulars. What is the rhyme and reason there? Any help would be appreciated. Potentially thanks, Lee 06-30-2013, 01:42 PM #2 (permalink) Leefoo Forgot to add I did another season with the same four pitchers. This time they didn't do as well, but the (Overall) ratings didn't change. Also, do any of those individual potential ratings mean anything? Thx

07-04-2013, 08:46 AM	#5
Leefoo Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 437	The first thing I think you need to tell us is whether you are using recalc? What/Where is that? Thx

07-04-2013, 08:49 AM	#6
Leefoo Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 437	Oliver....what do you mean by 'currents'? Thx....btw, I am doing some quick plays to test out the game's 'guts'. Lary Sorenson has stayed at 20/79 for 3 straight seasons. And, for 3 straight seasons he has pitched to an ERA UNDER 3.00!!! So.........is there a way to tell from any of his potential ratings that he is going to pitch well? And why hasn't his overall rating improved? I just need more info. You'd think there'd be some kind of 'sticky' out there describing this part of the game. especially since other teams always try to trade for these kinds of guys? Thx!

07-09-2013, 03:20 PM	#13
Leefoo Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 437	In OOTP potential IS erratic and confusing?? Okay, I 'get' the "if they are playing well" why worry about potential argument? Well, then, in that case, what's the point of having potential? Seriously, if a player's "currents" says '20' and his potential is '79' why doesn't he change after three good years?! I have simmed lots of seasons in OOTP (and iOOTP, but that's another forum) and have seen players' potential drop, despite continued success! They never seem to get their 'currents' up to a potential level, but I HAVE seen the potential drop. I have tried checking/unchecking the different ways of 'developing' players and nothing worked. Twice (with different developing methods selected), I set up a team with FIVE 20/ ( meaning anything from 60 to 80 potential) starting pitchers and EVERYONE of them, despite some mixed success over the years (I simmed 5 years - some did better and were more consistent) had their potential DROP! I have done the same with batters. Batters, on a whole, seem to get better than pitchers over the years, and I have seen more of their 'Currents' go up near their potential than pitchers. It is the rare pitcher whose "Current" rating approaches their potential. When drafting or trading, the AI seems to love these 'potential' guys. I'm not sure why, lol. I just can't figure this "Potential" thing out. Bad seasons seem to take a player down, yet good seasons (or a string of good seasons) seem to do nothing (esp for pitchers). If you have ANY advice, pls, uh, advise. Thx Lee

07-02-2013, 10:48 AM	#2
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,082	thats why I like this game so much .... no game is exactly alike or the same the statistical probabilities makes for more fun.

07-02-2013, 10:50 AM	#3
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 10,161 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	The first thing I think you need to tell us is whether you are using recalc?

07-02-2013, 08:47 PM	#4
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Potentials don't play. Currents do. Potentials are just what they may become in the future. They don't influence outcomes in any fashion I've ever seen. If they did, a lot of my minor leaguers would be playing better. A player's current ratings depend on a combination of their ratings and stats, with the values based on the AI Evaluation settings (which are somewhere in league setup, don't remember exactly where). If the development engine is deciding things, as opposed to recalc, whether or not a player hits his potentials depends on a number of factors, including but not limited to playing time (in the minors only), coaching, work ethic, and intelligence (not to mention the algorithm that decides if these things work over any given period). Some players will hit their potentials, some won't. Some players will see increases in potentials, while others will see their potential fade. It's baseball.

07-04-2013, 03:42 PM	#8
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I didn't realize this was iOOTP either, but the following should still apply. "Currents" are the ratings saying how good the player is now. "Potentials" are the ones saying how good they might get. For example, when you say a player is 20/79 overall, that means he is a 20-rated player now, but might get up to 79 eventually. Individual ratings should have the same displayed for them. A hitter may be 35/55 (20-80 scale) in Contact, for example. For how well they should be playing now, you want to look at the currents, not the potentials.

07-04-2013, 05:22 PM	#9
rudel.dietrich Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Zürich, Switzerland Posts: 8,608	If they are pitching well, does their overall rating really even matter?

07-04-2013, 09:07 PM	#10
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Nope.

07-09-2013, 09:44 PM	#14
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Don't know if this is up your alley or not, but I keep a spreadsheet with the pertinent-to-me ratings for every player in my entire organization. I update this every time the ratings update (start of every month during the season). I've seen plenty of players go up and down, in both currents and potential. Maybe this would help you see improvement better? I think decline is generally more obvious than improvement.

07-11-2013, 11:02 AM	#15
Leefoo Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 437	oliver....I might try that....I was unaware that they went up and down each month. I am enjoying learning all about this game. It kinda makes Strat, Action and those others pale in comparison!

07-11-2013, 09:04 PM	#16
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	They usually don't move a lot (unless you hire a new scout then they will, especially the younger guys), but they do move. It's nice to get to bump a fringy prospect's potentials up five points at a time (I play 20-80) every month...not that this happens all that often, but sometimes it does. Then there's the times when I'm doing it and go "Hey, this guy jumped a ton! What do I do with him now?" That happened with Austin Wates during 2014. Turned from a middling AAA outfielder into a legit everyday MLB LF. Left him in AAA for the rest of the year to make sure it stuck, then gave him the everyday LF job in 2015. He only won a Gold Glove and was worth roughly 5 WAR. If you want to PM me your email address, Leefoo, I can email you my spreadsheet.