Arbitration awards

[beorn]

I need to preface this by saying that, for all my OOTP playing, I no longer follow MLB and have lost touch with real life arbitration awards. But I'd like to check with other people as to whether these are realistic:

Player 1: DH with horrible catching skills
2018 hit .314 with 18 HR .401 OBP WAR 4.6; at end of season in November got $6.2 million thru arby
2019 hit .271 with 12 HR .371 OBP WAR 1.0; got $7.75 million thru arby
2020 hit .220 with 3 HR .297 OBP WAR -2.4; got $9.9 million thru arby

Player 2: 3B with good glove
2018 hit .316 with 4 HR .394 OBP WAR 4.7; got $4 million thru arby
2019 hit .287 with 2 HR .352 OBP WAR 0.9; got $4.8 million thru arby
2020 hit .245 with 3 HR .353 OBP WAR 0.6; got $5.7 million thru arby


Player #3 Pitcher with three pitches, low stamina
2018 9-6 with three saves in 102 relief appearances; 3.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.6 WAR; FIP 3.82; still automatic renewal
2019 21-10 in 34 starts; 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, FIP 4.48; 2.7 WAR got $5.7 million through arby
2020 9-10 with 2 saves in 16 starts and 51 relief appearances, 4.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, FIP 4.54; 1.3 WAR; got $6.8 million through arby

To my eye, based on 2020, it appears OOTP is granting substantial arbitration raises pretty much automatically, even when the player has a poor season (in the case of player #1 a humiliating season, during which not a single other team in the league would trade anything for him).

On the other hand, the arby award to player #3 at the end of 2019 seems kind of cheap.

So I am curious as to how realistic these arby numbers look to other people.


(Highest paid player in the league is at $30 million. Four others are in the 20s. The 25th highest player in the league makes $14.7 million.)

[mgoetze]

Obviously the awards seem a bit high, but in general I would comment that (1) the arbitration estimate which is shown beforehand usually works out to be about what the arbitration result is; (2) I would never go through arbitration 3 times with the same player, the fact that arbitration tends to go up and up being the main reason and (3) if I don't think a player is worth their arbitration estimate then I likely won't offer them arbitration.

[RchW]

For player 1 I might not have offered arb in 2019 and would not have in 2020. Otherwise they look fairly normal. I often let MR go to FA and sign them for less when they get no takers.

[beorn]

Originally Posted by mgoetze

Obviously the awards seem a bit high, but in general I would comment that (1) the arbitration estimate which is shown beforehand usually works out to be about what the arbitration result is; (2) I would never go through arbitration 3 times with the same player, the fact that arbitration tends to go up and up being the main reason and (3) if I don't think a player is worth their arbitration estimate then I likely won't offer them arbitration.

Yes, I was just wondering about the accuracy.

Certainly, there is no obligation to go to arby if you think you won't like the results. Nonetheless, I hope for accuracy in the game.

My half baked theory is that the game overemphasizes ratings in deciding arby awards, when arby is more results based. Scout ratings and such rely heavily on ratings -- which makes sense. But arbitrators? That's questionable. But I could be totally off on all this.

[The Wolf]

Arbitration should be stats-based.

[dkgo]

Has a player ever not received at least a 20% increase when going to arbitration in real life? I know there is a minimum based on the previous years salary.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

In real life, per the MLBPA collective bargaining agreement, the following factors can be considered in arbitration:

a) The quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal)
(b) the length and consistency of his career contribution
(b) the record of the Player’s past compensation
(c) comparative baseball salaries
(d) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player
(e) the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance (but not the financial position of the Player or the Club)

So I wonder if popularity and some personality factors are factored into arbitration in OOTP?

[mpejkrm]

Yes, OOTP has long since had problems with arbitration process. Players very rarely LOSE money in arbitration no matter what. I've seen players earn up to $15 million in arbitration. David Price the reigning Cy Young winner only got $7.5MM this past year.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by mpejkrm

Yes, OOTP has long since had problems with arbitration process. Players very rarely LOSE money in arbitration no matter what. I've seen players earn up to $15 million in arbitration. David Price the reigning Cy Young winner only got $7.5MM this past year.

I'm not sure that this is true. I think that OOTP may very well model the pre-FA arbitration process pretty well, which is precisely why more and more real world GMs are going way out of their way to avoid it. Good players get extensions as they enter arb year 1 to buy out the remaining arb years and 1-2 years of FA, while mediocre players get traded or DFAed in year 1 or 2 or arb because they aren't worth the consistently escalating salaries that come with 1-year arb contracts.

"I took my player to arb 3 times and his salary went up every time. This isn't realistic!" doesn't work as a statement because we have a ridiculously small sample of real world players who actually go to arbitration at all, nevermind in 3 consecutive seasons.

To take a look at Beorn's original question, I'm going to offer up one example of a player I can think of who has a similarly wide variance in performance, but with still escalating arbitration values - Jacoby Ellsbury

I *think* that the OP used the previous season's stat line with resulting arb figures, so I'll do the same for Ellsbury. All values from baseball-reference.

Jacoby Ellsbury: CF with good glove

made $496.5k in 2010
2010 hit .192 with 0 HR .241 OBP WAR -0.1 (lost war with Adrian Beltre); got $2.4 million thru arby
2011 hit .321 with 32 HR .376 OBP WAR 8.1; got $8.05 million thru arby
2012 hit .271 with 4 HR .313 OBP WAR 1.0; got $9 million thru arby

So, while there is clearly a tie between player performance and the "arbitration" year contract agreed to (team and player agreed to a number prior to hearing, so this deviates a bit from OOTP unless you do this manually), the gravity of the minimum salary, then arb1, then arb2, then arb3 contracts increasing in value trumps all. I find the numbers posted in beorn's original post to track reasonably with what I would expect *if* a similar scenario played out in reality.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by mpejkrm

Yes, OOTP has long since had problems with arbitration process. Players very rarely LOSE money in arbitration no matter what. I've seen players earn up to $15 million in arbitration. David Price the reigning Cy Young winner only got $7.5MM this past year.

Price got 10.1 million (and it wasn't arbitration, it was a one-year contract)

David Price Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

If you think it is such a problem in ootp then show some real life examples of players losing money in arbitration.

[Tram2Whitaker]

I know that in real life, owners win like 97% of arbitration cases. In ootp13 I was winning less than 50%, and I was offering more than the pre-arbitration estimates (usually rounding up to the next 1/4 million, but more in cases where players genuinely put up outstanding stats). Since I was constantly running in the red, and arby got moved back to 1 year, I couldn't sign extensions, and was at the mercy of the arbitrator who obviously hated me; gave a player who spent 4 months on the DL a $5 million raise.

So, no; I would not say arbitration numbers are realistic at all.

[cblacker]

According to this website Inside Salary Arbitration | FanGraphs Baseball, owners have won 57% and players 42%. Where did you get the 97% figure from?

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

I know that in real life, owners win like 97% of arbitration cases. In ootp13 I was winning less than 50%, and I was offering more than the pre-arbitration estimates (usually rounding up to the next 1/4 million, but more in cases where players genuinely put up outstanding stats). Since I was constantly running in the red, and arby got moved back to 1 year, I couldn't sign extensions, and was at the mercy of the arbitrator who obviously hated me; gave a player who spent 4 months on the DL a $5 million raise.

So, no; I would not say arbitration numbers are realistic at all.

this post lacks facts

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

I know that in real life, owners win like 97% of arbitration cases. In ootp13 I was winning less than 50%, and I was offering more than the pre-arbitration estimates (usually rounding up to the next 1/4 million, but more in cases where players genuinely put up outstanding stats). Since I was constantly running in the red, and arby got moved back to 1 year, I couldn't sign extensions, and was at the mercy of the arbitrator who obviously hated me; gave a player who spent 4 months on the DL a $5 million raise.

So, no; I would not say arbitration numbers are realistic at all.

Your situation sucked, but that does not mean that the arbitration numbers were not realistic.

[RchW]

In real life only 3 players went to arbitration prior to the 2013 season. Teams don't like it and player agents warn their clients that going to arbitration often fries the relationship with the team as the team submission can be devastatingly negative. I think the only change OOTP needs to make in arbitration is to make player signings easier. This reflects current real life conditions.

Do a search on Colorado Rockies arb submission for Dexter Fowler. It's an education on the minutiae of negative attributes.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by RchW

In real life only 3 players went to arbitration prior to the 2013 season. Teams don't like it and player agents warn their clients that going to arbitration often fries the relationship with the team as the team submission can be devastatingly negative. I think the only change OOTP needs to make in arbitration is to make player signings easier. This reflects current real life conditions.

True, though I've found that players will accept a 1 year deal for exactly the arbitration estimate readily enough. Sometimes slightly lower, but rarely.

[Gator]

I've always considered the arbitration system within OOTP broken. In real life both the player and the team submit a number and the arby panel must decide between the two numbers presented. They can't arrive at a compromise number. This forces the two sides to be realistic in their demands or risk losing the arbitration process. In addition, I believe teams can back out of the contract even after arbitration is awarded to the player by cutting him and paying a nominal severance fee. Within OOTP, I've made counter offers and then had the number be assigned in excess of the players original demands. As a result I now either pay the demand or cut the player, but I don't make counter offers.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Gator

I've always considered the arbitration system within OOTP broken. In real life both the player and the team submit a number and the arby panel must decide between the two numbers presented. They can't arrive at a compromise number. This forces the two sides to be realistic in their demands or risk losing the arbitration process. In addition, I believe teams can back out of the contract even after arbitration is awarded to the player by cutting him and paying a nominal severance fee. Within OOTP, I've made counter offers and then had the number be assigned in excess of the players original demands. As a result I now either pay the demand or cut the player, but I don't make counter offers.

I'm not sure what you're referring to? There is no "counter-offer" process in arbitration in OOTP. It's always presented as either your number wins or the player's number wins.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Gator

I believe teams can back out of the contract even after arbitration is awarded to the player by cutting him and paying a nominal severance fee.

You'd have to show me what player(s) and what season(s) this occurred. I don't think this is remotely true IRL.

[byzeil]

Originally Posted by Gator

Within OOTP, I've made counter offers and then had the number be assigned in excess of the players original demands. As a result I now either pay the demand or cut the player, but I don't make counter offers.

I'm not sure how you are making 'counter offers'. Are you thinking the number you see when you go into the arbitration screen is the player's demand? It is not his demand, it is the AI's recommendation to you on what you could offer, you cannot see the player's demand. You can raise or lower that number, or offer nothing at all. Then the 'arbitrator' decides between your offer and the player's hidden demand.