How does OOTP calculate outcomes?

pmd62ndst · 06-10-2013, 04:54 PM

I have always been curious about this but been afraid to ask.

How does OOTP calculate outcomes? I know it's probably proprietary and there are a huge amounts of variables involved. But I just want to know from the very basics of how to calculate an outcome from just two simple statistics.

For example: (numbers fudged slightly for symmetry sake)

Qualifying Batters OBP:
#1: Miguel Cabrera .440
#100: David DeJesus .330
#200: Jeff Keppinger .220

Qualifying Pitchers OBP allowed:
#1: Jordan Zimmerman .200
#100: Derek Holland .330
#200: Wade Davis: .440

All I know is that if David DeJesus is facing Derek Holland, he has 33% chance of getting on base. (Mean vs Mean)

But what are the chances Miguel Cabrera will get on base facing Wade Davis? Certainly it's way above .440, but how much? vs Jordan Zimmerman? Much lower but how much?

I am going through a similar simlulation for something completely different and was wondering how OOTP does it as I have been a big fan of the game for a long period of time.

I know I should probably take a statistics class but if anyone can enlighten me on how to calculate this probability based on two other probabilities, I would appreciate it. This may have also been covered in another topic but I couldn't find it.

Thanks for your time!

06-10-2013, 04:54 PM	#1
pmd62ndst Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 20	How does OOTP calculate outcomes? I have always been curious about this but been afraid to ask. How does OOTP calculate outcomes? I know it's probably proprietary and there are a huge amounts of variables involved. But I just want to know from the very basics of how to calculate an outcome from just two simple statistics. For example: (numbers fudged slightly for symmetry sake) Qualifying Batters OBP: #1: Miguel Cabrera .440 #100: David DeJesus .330 #200: Jeff Keppinger .220 Qualifying Pitchers OBP allowed: #1: Jordan Zimmerman .200 #100: Derek Holland .330 #200: Wade Davis: .440 All I know is that if David DeJesus is facing Derek Holland, he has 33% chance of getting on base. (Mean vs Mean) But what are the chances Miguel Cabrera will get on base facing Wade Davis? Certainly it's way above .440, but how much? vs Jordan Zimmerman? Much lower but how much? I am going through a similar simlulation for something completely different and was wondering how OOTP does it as I have been a big fan of the game for a long period of time. I know I should probably take a statistics class but if anyone can enlighten me on how to calculate this probability based on two other probabilities, I would appreciate it. This may have also been covered in another topic but I couldn't find it. Thanks for your time!