Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

Hello. My name is Otto Orcin. You probably know me as the lead baseball analyst for BNN. You may have read some of my articles at cbatraderumors.com. You might also remember me from my previous stint as the General Manager of the Louisville Colonels. I have just been rehired by my former boss, now the owner, to restore the consistent success and profitability that the Louisville franchise took for granted a few years ago.

If you want to know about that earlier part of my career, you can read my self-published eBook about those years here. If you have already read it, welcome to the sequel. If you don’t want to slog through 85+ pages to catch up, don’t worry. This book stands alone. I will provide the history and background for you.

It was not an easy choice to give up my soft life as a multimedia star. The scariest part of the decision was the competition with me. I am known as a “Living Legend” in the Continental Baseball Association. As GM of the Colonels for eight seasons, we won the Midwest Division title every year – never missing the playoffs. We won five Federal League championships and four World Series rings. I was the CBA Executive of the Year six times. How can I top, or even match, that level of success this time around?

I was compelled to return in spite of trepidation. The Louisville Colonels are my passion. I became a fan of the Colonels as a young boy and I grew up wanting this job. I worked hard and, through a series of fortuitous events, my dream was realized. I had fun and we enjoyed an extended period of unrivaled success. That’s all in my first book.

Then, in 2008, I hit a wall. I now recognize the symptoms of burnout, but I didn’t see it that way at the time. Someone asked me if I was bored with winning. I thought so, but I now realize that I was never tired of winning. Psychologists tell us that the human brain becomes bored once it has mastered a task or concept, and it wants to move on. I was bored with the work because I did not have enough challenge in my job.

Six years in a different profession have rekindled my appetite. My predecessor made many changes in the organization and left ample opportunities to put my own brand on the franchise again. But most of all, I want to build a consistently competitive franchise without “quick fixes”, and that goal will require me to master a new skill called patience.

My years as an observer have given me a new perspective on my former tenure. I now understand that I lacked patience. I have seen too many players that I drafted develop into stars after I traded them (example: Juan Moran now has 287 career home runs). I was often too hasty to “spend” prospect currency, and sacrificed better long-term talent to get short-term results on a frequent basis.

I didn’t create a winning team; I assembled it. I plugged holes by acquiring talent, not by developing it. I became the master of trading a package of several mid-level players and prospects for one star player. I was so good at this tactic that it felt like cheating after a while. Of course, it is not cheating, but it is also not a strategy for sustainable success.

I am not saying that trades are a bad tactic or somehow inappropriate. The inevitable purge of players that are no longer affordable and/or cost effective is necessary for small market teams. From time to time, different players are required to fill gaps in an organization’s development cycle, and free agency can be an expensive way to solve this problem. Trades can satisfy both requirements efficiently when utilized to obtain young players at positions of need in return for expensive veteran players.

In the first stage of my career, I rarely executed this type of trade properly. More often, I depleted my farm system to plug holes created by injury, poor performance, or (worst of all) my own impatience with the development of a young player. I typically acquired fully-developed players entering their arbitration years. These mid-20’s players reached free agency in another few years and there were no young replacements in the pipeline. So, more trades for mature players were required and the cycle repeated.

The best way to ensure future success in a small market is to create a farm system that supplies a steady stream of quality young players to fill these gaps. This is achieved via smart drafting and effective player development, but it also requires some tolerance on the part of management. Free agents signed to one-year contracts can buy time for a prospect to develop, but the free agent may not be the perfect fit. Prospects may need to work through their mistakes in the majors to reach their potential. I must be willing to accept some imperfections and suffer through some growing pains. It requires patience.

I have concluded that, in this second stage of my career, winning is not enough. I want to build a successful franchise that attains all of my previous goals AND sustains itself via internal development. Building a strong farm system is harder for teams that always draft at the end of a round, but that’s why I get paid the big bucks. Maybe this time, I will also be able to control my temper and not fire my legendary scout in a fit of anger over a few ratings changes. Draft position doesn’t matter as much if a lot of your top prospects are generated internationally. I learned this lesson the hard way.

Finally, I’m sorry about the loss of your free tickets, Sal. I intend to make it up to you, starting with a pair of 2015 season tickets and a parking pass. I know you don’t drive anymore (because of that ugly little incident between you and the Commonwealth of Kentucky) but the person using your companion ticket can park in the space. Hopefully, I will finish the job by giving you and our fans another series of championships fueled by home-grown talent that you can follow from the draft all the way to the Hall of Fame.

Sincerely,
Otto Orcin

[Orcin]

Some background for new readers:

This is a continuation of a fictional league that has 34 years of history. I started by running it for 20 years with all teams AI-controlled. I then took over the Louisville franchise for 8 years as documented in Orcin’s Story.

When I felt that my first dynasty report had run its course, I turned the league back to the AI in order to shake things up a bit and give myself some new problems to solve.

Six years later, with my in-game character now 40 years old, I have resumed control of the Louisville franchise as I had always planned to do. I originally had no idea when I would return, but the game conveniently presented an appropriate storyline opportunity as explained at the end of the previous dynasty report.

A few “game setup” changes have been made while advancing the league forward.
• Storylines are now on
• Hide injury rating is now on (I don’t want to know)
• Top Prospect List is now generated dynamically
• Overall rating based on all players, not positions (just to be different)
• Overall rating will now be based on AI evaluation, not pure rating (more fog of war)

Otherwise, the settings are the same as my previous dynasty report, and you can find them detailed on page 1 of that thread if you are interested.

[Orcin]

History of the Continental Baseball Association

[Orcin]

History of the Louisville Colonels Franchise
Note: Otto Orcin was GM of the Colonels from 2001-2008.

[Orcin]

For Your Information…

Who holds the single season record in the Continental Baseball Association for home runs?

Akinori Ishikawa, 76 (1999)
Patrick Timm, 71 (2007)
Mark Jeffries, 68 (1988)
Nathan Bader, 66 (1981)
Josh Haley, 66 (2000)

Who holds the single season record in the Continental Baseball Association for starting pitcher ERA (minimum 162 IP)?

Jorge Figueroa, 1.24 (2001)
Jorge Figueroa, 1.28 (2000)
Octavio Lopez, 1.35 (1997)
Bill Blackburn, 1.53 (1985)
Armando Gonzalez, 1.55 (1998)

Which batters lead the Continental Baseball Association in career wins above replacement (WAR)?

Doug Smith, 109.7 (1981-1998)
Walid Gras, 89.0 (1989-2005)
Dan Wilson, 79.1 (1981-1996)
Luis Soto, HOU 79.0 (2003-2015)
David Page 77.9 (1981-1999)

Which pitchers lead the Continental Baseball Association in career wins above replacement (WAR)?

Jorge Figueroa, 197.1 (1990-2008)
David Harrison, 134.9 (1992-2011)
Roberto Campos, 119.2 (1995-2014)
Ronald Austin, 113.0 (1991-2010)
Armando González, 109.1 (1987-2005)

Who has the richest contracts in the Continental Baseball Association?

SP Jorge González, CHI $24,800,000
1B Héctor Nieves, NY $24,600,000
LF Luis Soto, HOU $24,400,000
SP Robbie Scott, HOU $24,000,000
SP Stephano Donaldson, PIT $22,400,000

[Orcin]

November 1, 2014 - The Off-Season Begins

Key dates:
November 10-14 – Award announcements
November 21 – Salary arbitration hearings
November 24 – Eligible players file for free agency
December 1 – “Rule 5” Draft
December 14-18 – Winter Meetings
February 5, 2015 – Preseason begins

First Day of the Off-Season

The following items are on my “To Do” list today.
• Address open personnel positions
• Make decision to exercise or decline team options
• Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents
• Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them
• Consider offers to potential free agents, including minor league free agents
• Offer long-term contracts to young stars, avoiding future arbitration

The first order of business is to find a scout that I trust. GM Chris Porter hired Dwayne Smith, former scout of the Los Angeles Vipers, when Carlos Villa retired in 2012. Smith has a “highly favors ability” focus but I prefer a scout that will find more stars with lots of skill in the area of international scouting.

In the meantime, I must use the information at hand to evaluate my roster. My first report on the state of the team follows while I still have Smith’s ratings to study, and then I will proceed with the important tasks of the first day on the job.

Budget Constraints

The budget is $130 million, way down from the $148 million that was in place when I left. The only way to get the budget increased is to under-spend it. Weird, I know, but that’s how owners operate. I need $25 million for operating expenses if I am to restore the player development and scouting to acceptable levels. That leaves $105 million to spend including personnel. I have $97 million committed for next year without signing any of my own pending free agents, so there is no room to pursue expensive free agent upgrades. I mention this now to establish parameters for upcoming contract decisions.

Next: Roster analysis

[Jabez54]

Brilliant concept of starting anew with a new set of guidelines ... which is pretty much close to the setup of my Game ()... draft players with the intent of building up the farm to sustain a winning and successful franchise - without the tradings and free-agents ... this has posed more of a challenge and to maintain the edge (adding more frustrations into the fray, with no breathing room) ... anyway, Luck of the Irish with you, Mr. Orcin ... Tomas

[Galeg]

I foresee your biggest problem being that thing called "patience."

Can't wait.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

without the tradings and free-agents ...

Just to clarify one thing... I never said I would not make trades or sign free agents. I know that is what you do, but I have no house rules against trades or free agents. Indeed, I fully expect to make several trades and sign some free agents in this off-season.

My goal is to focus on developing the farm system, which might take several years, so that I can use trades to purge older players for prospects and sign free agents to fill gaps.

[PrimetimeUTK]

I've just recently come back to OOTP and these forums. I played v9-v12. Working on getting a new solo league started in v12 and then convert up to 13 and then 14 once it comes out.

Looking forward to the continuation of your league. I went through the first few pages of posts and last few pages of posts on your other thread and liked what I saw. Awesome job!!!

Good luck as you re-take over the Colonels!!!

[Pineywoods OOTPer]

I'm been away for some time, but to come back and see the return of Orcin...good stuff...looking forward to the read again.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2015 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s roster follows. This will be split into multiple long and ridiculously-detailed posts. (Hey, I have been away for six years, so please cut me some slack if I write too much on my first day back.) More detail will be devoted to the pitching staff, because it is my biggest concern.

Starting Pitchers

The current 40-man roster pitchers (age/throws/current rating) with 2014 stats and contract status:
• Bill Robertson (37/R/4*) 170 IP, 10-9, 2.86 ERA, free agent
• Edgardo Ordonez (29/L/4*) 238 IP, 18-11, 3.97 ERA, $14M (thru 2018)
• Wallace Trauttmann (28/R/2*) 204 IP, 12-13, 4.32 ERA, free agent
• Juan Rodriguez (29/L/2*) 150 IP, 8-10, 4.01 ERA, free agent
• Will Spencer (29/R/2*) 179 IP, 9-9, 5.18 ERA, arbitration ($800K)
• Connor Legh (32/R/2*) 26 IP due to shoulder injury, free agent
• Marcos Maestas (24/R/2*) 74 IP, 3-8, 3.63 ERA, auto renewal

The staff at Lexington (AAA) includes these pitchers not on the 40-man roster:
• Juan Jose Rodgers (26/R/2*) 14-6, 3.35 ERA at AAA, free agent
• Josh MacDonald (25/R/1*) 8-11, 4.02 ERA at AAA, auto renewal, out of options
• Cristobal Tapia (27/R/1*) 7-6, 4.02 ERA at AAA, free agent

Robertson did a great job for the Colonels last year and he is willing to negotiate on a new contract. However, he wants multiple years. I would rather give those innings to developing pitchers or cheaper free agents on 1-year deals. I won’t offer Robertson a contract, even though he is our second-most popular player.

Ordonez is the #1 starter, believe it or not. He is paid like a #1 starter and we need him to pitch like a #1 starter. I would like to see his ERA come down about half a run.

Trauttmann will accept a 3-year contract at $6M/year. I am considering a counter-offer. Trauttmann was 15-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 2008. He battled injuries for the next 3 years before rebounding to 14-10, 3.28 in 2012. Then, he inexplicably declined to a combined 21-28 with a 4.29 ERA over the past two seasons. At age 28, he might still turn around with proper coaching and a good defense behind him, both of which I intend to provide.

Juan Rodriguez will accept a 3-year deal for $2M/year. He is the only other lefty so I need to sign him unless there is a cheaper and/or better alternative on the free agent market. Former Louisville star pitcher Robert Westaway is available and left-handed, but he is 39 and still recovering from a torn rotator cuff. He won’t be cheap either.

Maestas, Rodgers, and Spencer are all young enough to improve, and I need the depth.
I really liked Maestas (2008 #1) and Rodgers (2006 #1) when I drafted them, and I owe them a chance. I want to give Spencer a fair shot even though his control is scary bad.

Bullpen

Last year’s unit included:
• David Hanna (35/R/5*) 71 IP, 6-7, 2.02 ERA, 40 SV, free agent
• Ken Cushley (36/R/4*) 47 IP, 3-2, 2.85 ERA, free agent
• Jorge Merced (29/R/4.5*) 85 IP, 6-4, 3.18 ERA, $3M (thru 2017)
• A bunch of no-name kids and veterans that you may never hear from again

Merced is the new closer unless I can find a better affordable alternative. There is a lot of work to do in the bullpen because I refuse to spend $20M on two aging relievers. I am not a big fan of relief pitchers on the other side of 35 with huge salaries. Thus I won’t be offering a contract to Hanna and Cushley. This will hurt fan interest (again) because Hanna is our most popular player.

In case you are curious, former Louisville relievers Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks, Edgardo Garza, and Francisco Rodriguez are all closers for other CBA teams. I don’t want to bash my predecessor, but couldn’t you have kept those three guys instead of getting Hanna and Cushley? The guys I left were all younger and their combined salaries were about equal to the other two. At least Merced is still around.

Overall Pitching Summary

This staff deserves its average rating from last year, and that is before we let several of the best pitchers leave in free agency. There’s a lot of work to do here, especially in the bullpen. I can put together a decent rotation if I sign Trauttmann and Rodriguez.

Catcher

Porter traded young 3B Peter Clifton to Baltimore for catcher Tsutomu Kubo last July. He was not happy with veteran Duncan Bland (.224/.280/.344) at the plate, and Kubo certainly hit better (.278/.336/.389). The problem is that Kubo fails to consistently make routine defensive plays and his arm is a joke (16.5% caught stealing rate).

Kubo is arbitration eligible ($2.4M estimate) and Porter offered him a 1-year contract at $2.8 million (still pending). Veteran Juan Alejandrez is the third catcher. I could go with a semi-platoon of the 34-year-old Bland and 35-year-old Alejandrez behind the plate, which would be a huge upgrade defensively. Kubo may have value on the trade market and I could use the budget room. Bland makes a lot of money, and has no trade value, so I might as well benefit from his leadership and defense.

To be continued…

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2015 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (part 2)

The infield has two of our best players and a couple of weaknesses.

First Base

Rick Thomas is the incumbent. He was acquired in a trade two years ago and has not lived up to expectations. Thomas is 29 and I don’t see him improving much. The best thing I can say about him is that he bats right-handed with some amount of power. Thomas is in his last year of arbitration and the estimate is $5.5 million. I think I can do better on the free agent market for less money. I will non-tender Thomas and take my chances. There is no one behind him of note in the entire organization.

Second Base

Lance Morrison (.243/.319/.351, 25 SB) is a defensive wizard and could contend for a Gold Glove if he was ever noticed. His bat did not get him noticed last season, but he hit .308 in his rookie year. He has another year before arbitration and won’t be expensive even then. I could use another option at this position, but I have higher priorities. I value defense at second base and shortstop, and someone has to bat eighth.

Third Base

Phil Gillespie (.284/.312/.498, 28 HR, 100 RBI, and 23 SB) is one of the best players on the team. He is a 25-year-old left-handed power hitter with speed and great defensive skills. He is still at minimum salary this season, but he will be an expensive arbitration case next year if I don’t sign him to an extension. He has been playing first base against right-handed pitching but I view that as a waste of his defensive ability. Gillespie will be the full-time third baseman this season and I will find someone else to play first base.

Shortstop

Luis Vargas just completed his third season as the Colonels shortstop. His career slash line (.326/.381/.408) is impressive. Vargas is a left-handed batter that makes consistent contact and has a good eye. The 23-year-old also possesses Gold Glove defense. He is a logical leadoff hitter, but we already have one of those so he bats second.

Vargas was Louisville’s #1 draft pick in 2010 out of high school and spent very little time in the minors. Consequently, he reached arbitration eligibility at a young age and was signed to a long-term contract one month before I arrived. The contract will pay him $44 million over 5 years, so it is not a bad deal for his ability.


To be continued…

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2015 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (part 3)

The outfield has two of our highest-paid players and some youngsters with good potential. I plan to play the high-paid guys in their best positions and let the young guys fight over the other spot.

Left Field

Brian Ferguson played 100 games in left last season with a .264/.358/.449 slash line and 22 stolen bases. His defense is excellent (he is rated 10 at the position). Rafael Vasquez (not Valdez) played 24 games as a substitute last season, most of them in right field. He is a very similar player to Ferguson and will likely make the team as a fourth outfielder if he does not win the job in left field. Fernando Chavez, William Price, and Brian Fontenot are other young left-handed contact hitters with potential on the roster. All five of these players will compete for this spot and one backup job. Brian Dixon is the only right-handed batter among the outfield candidates, which could give him an edge for the other bench spot.

Center Field

Rafael Valdez was the #1 prospect in the CBA when I “retired” in 2008. He came up in 2009 and has been the center fielder in Louisville since that time. His career slash line is .296/.405/.528 with a 157 OPS+. His best season was 2011 when he hit .335 with 30 HR and 94 RBI. Valdez is injury-prone and has only played more than 140 games once. He is signed to a long-term contract with 4 years and $62 million left on it. He isn’t going anywhere but it is imperative that we have a good backup for the position.

Right Field

Eduardo Sanchez is still around from my previous tenure and he is as good as ever. The 4-time all-star hit .302 with a .387 OBP last year. His stolen base totals have declined each year since I left, but he is still an ideal leadoff hitter. He consumes vast amounts of payroll resources with his $18 million annual salary. It occurs to me that one of the many candidates for the left field job could fill this spot and save me $17.5 million.


Overall Lineup Summary

I love the defense, especially up the middle. I would like to add a right-handed power bat to balance the left-handed hitters (Sanchez, Vargas, Gillespie, and Ferguson). The spot would be first base, although it could also be third base with Gillespie playing first. It could also be a corner outfielder if Sanchez is traded. Kubo and one or more of my many left-handed hitting outfielders are the bait for this trade. I would really love to get a young pitcher or two also, but I am not holding my breath.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season
Task 1: Fill open personnel positions

There are no open positions on the staff, but I want some upgrades. As a wise man once said... If you want to make an omelet, you have to break a few eggs.

With the roster analysis out of the way, I fired my scout and made an offer to legendary 63-year-old scout Phil Green. He asked for 4 years at $350K but I increased the salary offer to $400K. I want him to accept quickly, and hopefully stay for the duration of the contract instead of retiring early. Green has a neutral focus and excels in all aspects of scouting. He has been a scout for Cleveland (1991-2003), Philadelphia (2004-2008), and most recently did a great job for Chicago from 2009-2013. I have no idea why they did not renew his contract or why he sat out last year. I don’t care either.

The major league staff has three holdovers from my tenure. Stephen Burgess was promoted from Bench Coach to Manager when Chad Byrne left. Burgess is signed through this season, and I will certainly offer him an extension when the time is right. Team doctor Ragnvard Borgstrom and Hitting Coach Harland Bonner are both signed through 2016.

Now for the bad news, former Pitching Coach Barry Melton is now in Philadelphia. I am not a big fan of Melton’s replacement. I also don’t think the new Bench Coach Andrew Adkins has enough skill in the fielding area. This is a good opportunity to reward quality staff members that have been with the organization for a long time.

Lexington (AAA) Manager Chris Ray has a record of 1123-749 (.600) since he was hired (by me) in 2002. Ray, a legendary fielding instructor, was promoted to Bench Coach. Adkins refused to be demoted to AAA manager, so he was fired. Lexington Pitching Coach Patrick Jackson was also promoted to the majors, and the current PC was fired after refusing a demotion to AAA PC.

Dayton (AA) Manager Ben Blair was promoted to the vacancy at AAA. Evansville (A) Manager Oliver Amador was promoted to AA. Both of these men were hired by me in 2005 and 2006, respectively, and have exemplary records.

I offered the newly-vacant Lexington Pitching Coach position to ex-Dallas PC Ted Sheppard. He only wants a one-year contract and that is fine with me. The Evansville Manager position was offered to newcomer Carlos Ordonez on a two-year deal.

In total, I spent $2.5 million of my tight budget to fire personnel. I hope it is worth it in the long run. I believe it will be or I would not have spent the money. I used to have a much better stable of coaches in the minors to handle vacancies. After these promotions, the minor league personnel, especially in the lower levels, are pretty weak. I guess this is another one of those new problems for me to solve over time. Welcome back, Orcin.

[Sal, The Barber]

This is the way Sal believes you go about the business and why he welcomes back his friend, Mr. Orcin. You give them the rope ("I have a job for you at AAA.") Then they hang themselves ("You no want it? You're fired."). Sal does not believe in the pulling of the punches. Get rid of this dead weight--no, no, no ... Sal is not referring to himself but to those coaches!

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

Task 2: Make decision to exercise or decline team options

There were no team options to exercise.


Task 3: Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents

The first order of business is to offer contracts to two free agents that I want to retain.
• SP Wallace Trauttmann (28/R/2*) 204 IP, 12-13, 4.32 ERA
• SP Juan Rodriguez (29/L/2*) 150 IP, 8-10, 4.01 ERA

I was able to convince Trauttmann to accept a 3-year deal of $4M in 2015, $5M in 2016, and a team option with zero buyout at $6M for 2017. His demand was 3 years at $6M per year. By the way, his 2014 salary was $15M so he definitely took a pay cut.

Juan Rodriguez accepted a 1-year contract for $2M. That’s a bargain for a left-hander with a career 4.02 ERA. This still leaves two spots in my rotation unsettled, so I almost had to make these two deals.

The following potential free agents are not compensation eligible, and will not be offered arbitration:
• SP Bill Robertson (37/R/4*) 170 IP, 10-9, 2.86 ERA
• SP Connor Legh (32/R/2*) 26 IP due to shoulder injury
• CL David Hanna (35/R/5*) 71 IP, 6-7, 2.02 ERA, 40 SV
• MR Ken Cushley (36/R/4*) 47 IP, 3-2, 2.85 ERA
• MR Gang Jiao (32/R/2*) 76 IP, 3-0, 3.17 ERA
• MR Jesus Pena (31/L/2*) 55 IP, 0-3, 5.10 ERA

I have to see how much budget I have remaining, if any, before I offer contracts to relievers over age 30. Some of the pitchers above or equivalent can typically be signed in the spring to 1-year contracts at $1 million or less. Robertson and Hanna would be the exceptions, but they want 6-year contracts worth more than $100 million. That’s not in the cards here, fellas.

[deandean1998]

Originally Posted by Orcin

First Day of the Off-Season



I have to see how much budget I have remaining, if any, before I offer contracts to relievers over age 30. Some of the pitchers above or equivalent can typically be signed in the spring to 1-year contracts at $1 million or less. Robertson and Hanna would be the exceptions, but they want 6-year contracts worth more than $100 million. That’s not in the cards here, fellas.

Who, in their right minds, would offer some 32-36 year old relievers 6 year contracts in the first place. 100 MILLION DOLLARS. HOLY.......MOTHER OF GOD.......THAT IS......WOW.
Hanna is gonna be a tough loss.
But, you could replace him

[Jabez54]

Sheesh, hire me to carry the team's gloves, bats and whatnot for .05 % of what their asking for for 6 years ... I agreed, mate

[deandean1998]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

Sheesh, hire me to carry the team's gloves, bats and whatnot for .05 % of what their asking for for 6 years ...I agreed, mate

Hell, i would do it for .49 of it . All i know is, DONT SIGN THEM OTTO!! PAIN AND SUFFERING IS IN YOUR FUTURE IF YOU DO!