Weight of Overall/Potential with scouting off?

uabfan · 07-02-2012, 06:01 PM

Even with scouting turned on I know that the "star" ratings are best taken as a guide and not the basis of decisions. However, being the math geek that I am, I started playing around with a number (a "metric", so to speak) that would provide a quick-glance summary of two players. The toughest question I've had is how to weight "star" ratings with scouting off - if they are weighted at all.

For example, take hitters A and B. One way I could compare them is to give equal weight to the five batter ratings: 1xContact + 1xGap + 1xPower + 1xEye + 1xK's. Then there is Speed, Stealing, and Baserunning. If a hitter gets on base a lot, Speed or Stealing could be valuable...both being best. Baserunning is valuable, too, but not as much. So I add those ratings but at different weights: .3xStealing + .3xSpeed + .25xBaserunning. So I have a number for the hitters and, adding up their potential ratings, I have a second number giving me: Current Rating & Potential Rating.

I can similarly alter attributes (Work Ethic, Intelligence, etc.) and include them. All of the things mentioned so far are relatively concrete numbers (a guy with 7 Contact may play at a 6 or 8 at different times, but never like his Contact is 3). Star ratings are different in that even the current numbers are vague. Given that, would you add them to a rating system at all? If you did, would you give them equal weight as actual ratings (say '1' as I did above) or less? Is your answer different if scouting is OFF or ON? Just wanted to get the opinions of other devoted players (and possibly statheads like me).

Pacoheadley · 07-02-2012, 06:23 PM

If I were you I would put less weight to Gap and Avoid K's, because Gap is just a measure of the number of doubles and triples, so it isn't quite as important as the main three, and Avoid K's is already taken into account as part of contact when it comes to wanting to know somebody's batting average.

uabfan · 07-02-2012, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

If I were you I would put less weight to Gap and Avoid K's, because Gap is just a measure of the number of doubles and triples, so it isn't quite as important as the main three, and Avoid K's is already taken into account as part of contact when it comes to wanting to know somebody's batting average.

Both good points. I don't want to bore everyone with detailed maths, but I have played around with the numbers to reflect things like this. Also, things like making sure the numbers don't hurt OBP speedsters vs. HR sluggers or SPs vs. MRs, how to account for the fact that a '4' rating at first base isn't as big a deal as a '4' on a centerfielder or shortstop.

What's your opinion on the stars? Include them or not?

I did a test run in a long-running league where I took OOTP's Top 20 Players and ran different equations to see if they came out as Top 20 in my numbers. Taking Overall star rating out didn't hurt the top 5 or so but the bottom 15 really fell back into the pack.

Pacoheadley · 07-03-2012, 01:19 AM

If I were you I wouldn't include stars in an overall ranking of a player. I say this because the stars are what OOTP thinks their overall value should be, so everything going into the star rating is what is already going into your overall rating.

07-02-2012, 06:01 PM	#1
uabfan Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Nashville, TN Posts: 79	Weight of Overall/Potential with scouting off? Even with scouting turned on I know that the "star" ratings are best taken as a guide and not the basis of decisions. However, being the math geek that I am, I started playing around with a number (a "metric", so to speak) that would provide a quick-glance summary of two players. The toughest question I've had is how to weight "star" ratings with scouting off - if they are weighted at all. For example, take hitters A and B. One way I could compare them is to give equal weight to the five batter ratings: 1xContact + 1xGap + 1xPower + 1xEye + 1xK's. Then there is Speed, Stealing, and Baserunning. If a hitter gets on base a lot, Speed or Stealing could be valuable...both being best. Baserunning is valuable, too, but not as much. So I add those ratings but at different weights: .3xStealing + .3xSpeed + .25xBaserunning. So I have a number for the hitters and, adding up their potential ratings, I have a second number giving me: Current Rating & Potential Rating. I can similarly alter attributes (Work Ethic, Intelligence, etc.) and include them. All of the things mentioned so far are relatively concrete numbers (a guy with 7 Contact may play at a 6 or 8 at different times, but never like his Contact is 3). Star ratings are different in that even the current numbers are vague. Given that, would you add them to a rating system at all? If you did, would you give them equal weight as actual ratings (say '1' as I did above) or less? Is your answer different if scouting is OFF or ON? Just wanted to get the opinions of other devoted players (and possibly statheads like me).

07-02-2012, 06:23 PM	#2
Pacoheadley All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Kincheloe, MI Posts: 521	If I were you I would put less weight to Gap and Avoid K's, because Gap is just a measure of the number of doubles and triples, so it isn't quite as important as the main three, and Avoid K's is already taken into account as part of contact when it comes to wanting to know somebody's batting average.

07-03-2012, 01:19 AM	#4
Pacoheadley All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Kincheloe, MI Posts: 521	If I were you I wouldn't include stars in an overall ranking of a player. I say this because the stars are what OOTP thinks their overall value should be, so everything going into the star rating is what is already going into your overall rating.