High School vs College Feeder Scouting/Performance

[retnuhsemaj]

Anybody know if there is any difference between players drafted out of High School or College Feeders in terms of performance? Or potential being met?

I think in real life, we can generally agree that a really good college player is going to be more ready than a really good high school player, but I'm wondering if anybody has every seen in their online leagues or SIMs if college players ever pan out better than high school players or vice versa?

[EvilGenius]

Originally Posted by retnuhsemaj

Anybody know if there is any difference between players drafted out of High School or College Feeders in terms of performance? Or potential being met?

I think in real life, we can generally agree that a really good college player is going to be more ready than a really good high school player, but I'm wondering if anybody has every seen in their online leagues or SIMs if college players ever pan out better than high school players or vice versa?

My experience, take this for what you will, is that high school players tend to be high risk/high reward, whereas college players are lower risk/lower reward. I see a LOT of high school players who are scouted off the charts, but I've had to learn to accept that virtually all of them will eventually come back down to earth after a few years -- but for that one player who actually attains that potential, watch out! He's worth all the other ones that didn't combined.

College players are more of a known quantity. As such, they're not often scouted off the charts. So they don't make you foam at the mouth to draft. But they're more likely to attain the Potential they're scouted at. But if a college player has outstanding Potential, jump all over that.

A player's age can make a big difference. A 17 year old starting pitching prospect will likely develop more arm strength after a few years (translation, his Stuff will go way up). A 21 year old college player probably has all the arm strength he's ever going to have.

The older a player is, the less time he has to develop -- something to consider for a college player who has high potential but his ability is still pathetically low.


Personally, I'm not big on the draft. My teams tend to win a lot, so I get low draft picks anyway. I find it easier to trade for everyone else's former top picks than it is to consistently pick my own. By then, they have a year or so of minor league stats to judge by, and I don't have to spend 7 or 8 million on signing bonuses.

[gord]

Originally Posted by EvilGenius

My experience, take this for what you will, is that high school players tend to be high risk/high reward, whereas college players are lower risk/lower reward.

So, just like real life, right? That's the mindset a lot of MLB teams have when drafting.

[damientheomen3]

It IS pretty similar to real life, but I haven't seen any Strasburg types. I've seen guys who come out of the draft very major league ready, but those are the guys who usually peak as a decent or good player.

[DanP68]

I had a college draft pick named Claudio Guerra who was basically MLB ready straight out of the draft. But I took my time with him. I moved him quickly through the low minors and up to AAA between the end of June signing and the end of the season. He raked everywhere.

He started on my MLB roster the next season. He either won ROY or at least deserved it. The next season he nearly won the AL Batting Title. His third season he has a 10 out of 10 overall rating on defense at 2B, 8 out of 10 at shortstop, and he is hitting .315 with a .410 OBA and on pace for about 15 home runs. He's an awesome hitter for a middle infielder. Steals maybe 15 bases per season, but the kicker is he almost never gets caught. He's the prototype for a lead-off hitter.

[DB930]

For all the high school studs that turn to duds, is the opposite ever true? Ever have a kid who was a 1-star late-round pick eventually turn into a ML All-Star?

[Nunyer]

I can't honestly say I've ever seen any total one-star scrub turn into a "star" necessarily... But I did have a seemingly useless, late round, utility infielder type develop into a legit 3 star ML player who is in his 6th or 7th season. I had to trade him away eventually for budget reasons... but his initial scouting report had all of his batting potentials listed in the 4-6 range on a scale of 20... just ugly...

He spent three years in the minors and between the 2nd and 3rd season, his rating potentials just skyrocketed out of nowhere.... they all pretty much tripled from one season to the next... He went from a .200 batter in single A one season, to tearing up triple A by the end of the next season. Never saw anything like it. He ended up basically splitting the difference between his initial crap potential and his later astronomical potential... settling in nicely as a solid defender who can play any IF position well, hit .260ish with 15-20 HRs while drawing about as many walks as strikeouts. Decent player for a 13th rounder, but he had to go once the arbitrator gave him $4.5m raises for two straight seasons.

[EvilGenius]

Originally Posted by DB930

For all the high school studs that turn to duds, is the opposite ever true? Ever have a kid who was a 1-star late-round pick eventually turn into a ML All-Star?

I've never noticed it in the superstars in my league (though that's not the same as saying it has never happened, I just never noticed). There are only a handful of second round draft picks that are even full time starters in my league. The only player I've been able to follow because he was on my team was a borderline starting pitcher. He had that weird combination of ratings that were too good to trade and get equal value in return, but not quite good enough to dominate the league. He was my long reliever and an occasional starter.

I eventually signed him to a 4 year contract at under a million per. I try to keep my payroll down as close to $100 million as possible. So guys like this are incredibly valuable to me. I'm not looking to spend $5 or $6 million on a back of the rotation starter.

But, as regards the question at hand, he's a capable pitcher and plays an important role on my team, but he'll never be confused with an All-Star. And its not like he was a 7th round pick or something, I got him in the second round. I don't even remember picking him, but his history says I did.

[NateAndStuff]

I've had a dominant reliever and a solid closer both come out of rounds 15-20 in drafts before. My reliever was the highest rated MR in the game and his career ERA was right around 2.00 in his 4 years in the majors. My closer averaged about 30-35 saves a year and always seemed to have a sub-3 ERA minus a few years. I don't remember exactly what picks I drafted them with, but I remember seeing that I'd taken them in the 16th or 17th round of each of their drafts. Both started out with very low overall and potential ratings, but I drafted them based on their good work ethic and intelligence.

It took them longer to develop and I don't think either one made it to the big leagues before their age 25 season, but I couldn't tell you the exact ages or stats they had in the minors. That save file was on my old Mac that has since died.

[torpidbeaver]

Originally Posted by DB930

For all the high school studs that turn to duds, is the opposite ever true? Ever have a kid who was a 1-star late-round pick eventually turn into a ML All-Star?

I had an early chance at a starting pitcher thanks to some foreign scouting, but passed on him because his potential was rated at 1.5 stars.

It's only been a year, but he's starting on some other team's AAA team and my scout suddenly thinks he's 4-star potential. Thanks, guy.

[NateAndStuff]

Originally Posted by torpidbeaver

I had an early chance at a starting pitcher thanks to some foreign scouting, but passed on him because his potential was rated at 1.5 stars.

It's only been a year, but he's starting on some other team's AAA team and my scout suddenly thinks he's 4-star potential. Thanks, guy.

I had this happen to me once too so now I just sign every international player my scout finds.

[YanksFan]

Although he is not on my team i think this guy is a perfect example. He was drafted in the 23rd round and his initial potential ratings were 3/1/2.

[Nunyer]

Yea... that's pretty impressive... pretty much a lock Hall of Famer in the 23rd round. Wonder if a human team could ever be so lucky...

[EvilGenius]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

Yea... that's pretty impressive... pretty much a lock Hall of Famer in the 23rd round. Wonder if a human team could ever be so lucky...

Wasn't Mike Piazza drafted in some ridiculously low round?

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by EvilGenius

Wasn't Mike Piazza drafted in some ridiculously low round?

62nd round, 1390th player taken. Helps if your dad knows the manager i guess though couldn't of been that good of friends to wait till the 62nd round.
Lets see the AI beat that

[Nunyer]

Originally Posted by EvilGenius

Wasn't Mike Piazza drafted in some ridiculously low round?

Well, by "human" team I was referring to a human controlled OOTP team... not MLB. I'm sure there have been lots of players in all major sports that became all-time greats without being hugely hyped amateurs... just doesn't seem to happen all that much in game.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

Well, by "human" team I was referring to a human controlled OOTP team... not MLB. I'm sure there have been lots of players in all major sports that became all-time greats without being hugely hyped amateurs... just doesn't seem to happen all that much in game.

That is true, i'd highly doubt that any player i ever took in the 62nd round in the game would ever become a hall of famer. Though raising the talent change factor or whatever it's called should make the chance of a player becoming great from no where. I might have to try it one year to shortlist all the players from a very late round to see what happens to them would be interesting to see how many actually make it anywhere.

[Marinersfan51]

I drafted my 1st baseman in the 24th round and he is a top 20 player now.

[DanP68]

Even for very low rated potential guys, I like to keep players in my organization for a few years regardless. If they are producing, and moving up from Rookie to A to AA, then I try to hang on to them.

And that's because, although rare, I have seen initially low rated guys go on to be useful major league players. I don't have the game in front of me now, but I guarantee that if I went over my entire 25 man roster I would find at least a few guys who were drafted in the final several rounds.

I use my Scout's potential ratings as a guideline, but when I see a player far outperforming his opinion, I throw his opinion away until the player hits the wall.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by DB930

For all the high school studs that turn to duds, is the opposite ever true? Ever have a kid who was a 1-star late-round pick eventually turn into a ML All-Star?

Many, many times. We usually run a 30 round draft in the BJHL. I always have about 150-200 players on my draft list because late round picks do turn into superstars. These are a few examples on my current roster. We have been running for quite a while now so these players were not created in OOTP12 but I doubt it has changed that much.

[table=]Name,Age,Position,OVR/POT,Rating Progress,Aquisition
Moffit,31,CL,74/74,Stuff 4/8-Mov 1/7-Con 3/8,Undrafted FA
Garretson,29,3B,70/73CON 4/6-POW 5/9-EYE 4/7,247th Pick
Weatherhead,30,SP,72/72,Stuff 7/7-Mov 6/8-Con 5/7,381st Pick
[/table]

I do not have ratings and potentials on Weatherhead from draft day. I have them from 9 months later. He had already done some developing at that point. I say this because the only way he would last this long is if he were a 20/20 player.

If anyone knows how to make a table in this forum software I could use a PM.