Do Type A and B FAs work properly?

[thenewchuckd]

I just bought the game, have been playing non-stop for about 2 weeks, and noticed a couple of weird things about type A and B free agents. I am trying to be like my favorite GM and rebuild by grabbing these guys through trade to get picks in the next draft. The trouble that I have is:

1) On the player profile, it can say something like "player X will be a type A free agent at the end of the season". However, when it comes to the end of the season, he may turn out to be a type B or have no compensation at all. Is the text just worded poorly?

2) I noticed almost no relievers or catchers make it to the type A list. This is weird. Then I think I saw someone on this forum say that all players are compared equally, regardless of position. When in fact, they should be compared in the following groups:

Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
Group 3: catchers
Group 4: starters
Group 5: relievers

(reference: Type A/B MLB Free Agent Explanations | Type A/B Free Agents | MLB Free Agents)

[JoeyBats]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

I just bought the game, have been playing non-stop for about 2 weeks, and noticed a couple of weird things about type A and B free agents. I am trying to be like my favorite GM and rebuild by grabbing these guys through trade to get picks in the next draft. The trouble that I have is:

1) On the player profile, it can say something like "player X will be a type A free agent at the end of the season". However, when it comes to the end of the season, he may turn out to be a type B or have no compensation at all. Is the text just worded poorly?

2) I noticed almost no relievers or catchers make it to the type A list. This is weird. Then I think I saw someone on this forum say that all players are compared equally, regardless of position. When in fact, they should be compared in the following groups:

Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
Group 3: catchers
Group 4: starters
Group 5: relievers

(reference: Type A/B MLB Free Agent Explanations | Type A/B Free Agents | MLB Free Agents)

1. Players can move between the different FA groups throughout the year, just because they are a Type A at the beginning, doesn't mean they will be at the end.

2. The top 20 percent should by Type A and I haven't noticed a problems

[fdterr@gmail.com]

I've seen this issue before, even when it says on the last day of the season that they will be a type-A, they end up being a type-B or even not being ranked at all.

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

I just bought the game, have been playing non-stop for about 2 weeks, and noticed a couple of weird things about type A and B free agents. I am trying to be like my favorite GM and rebuild by grabbing these guys through trade to get picks in the next draft. The trouble that I have is:

1) On the player profile, it can say something like "player X will be a type A free agent at the end of the season". However, when it comes to the end of the season, he may turn out to be a type B or have no compensation at all. Is the text just worded poorly?

2) I noticed almost no relievers or catchers make it to the type A list. This is weird. Then I think I saw someone on this forum say that all players are compared equally, regardless of position. When in fact, they should be compared in the following groups:

Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
Group 3: catchers
Group 4: starters
Group 5: relievers

(reference: Type A/B MLB Free Agent Explanations | Type A/B Free Agents | MLB Free Agents)

In my experience, the game does not follow the Elias formula (used in real life to rank the players) nor the MLB Comp rules exactly. They are approximated, but you may find some differences. It's possible catchers don't have their own group. Overall, it does a decent job but you may find a few things you disagree with.

[injury log]

Yes, take the player's FA comp status as a prediction, not a fact, until the season is done. The game is using, in part, the current year's stats to determine compensation status, so it can't know for sure whether a guy will be Type A until the season is done.

So if you're looking to use the strategy you mention - trading for impending comp-eligible FAs in order to get draft picks - the following observations might be helpful:

* if a guy is putting up horrible numbers, he probably won't be a Type A guy no matter what the game says

* if you want it to be more likely the guy maintains his Type A or B status, try to get him playing time

* I've never tested this, but I have a strong suspicion that Saves go into the determination of comp status for relief pitchers. So if you pick up a projected Type A/B reliever and want him to keep that status, you might consider using him as a closer.

[snepp]

I haven't looked at the selection and distribution yet in v12, but it was pretty lousy in 11.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by snepp

I haven't looked at the selection and distribution yet in v12, but it was pretty lousy in 11.

It's been changed.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by injury log

I've never tested this, but I have a strong suspicion that Saves go into the determination of comp status for relief pitchers. So if you pick up a projected Type A/B reliever and want him to keep that status, you might consider using him as a closer.

I traded for a closer who was having an awesome season. The game said he would be type A at the end of the season, too. He finished with 47 saves and a 3.5 ERA. But he was a type B free agent.

To me that's pretty ridiculous when estimates right now, in real life, have someone like Aroldis Chapman (only 39 innings pitched this season) as a Type B free agent. Eric O'Flaherty is estimated as a type A right now, very good ERA but no saves and not a lot of innings pitched. Or take the limit case of Clay Hensley, 4.53 ERA this season, no saves but currently projects as Type A (because he has a great season last year, Type A/B is supposed to take last season into account).

There is definitely something off here. And not just borderline off. You should see some average relief pitchers making their way into type B status but you don't (40% of all players should be type A or B). And as far as I can tell, it would have to be one hell of a season for a relief pitcher to get type A status, if it is even possible.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by JoeyBats

1. Players can move between the different FA groups throughout the year, just because they are a Type A at the beginning, doesn't mean they will be at the end.

If that's the case, then the text should really be changed to say "this player projected as type A at the beginning of the season". Or something along those lines. Because saying "Status at the end of the season: Type A" is either completely false or at the very least misleading.

And there is no reason why a manager should not know a guy's type A or B status. As I mentioned before, GMs in real life make trades based off this information.

Actually, it would be better if this was dynamic to say "this player projects as type A right now (but it could change later)". In fact, type A/B status should be on every player's contract screen, not just those who qualify for free agency. Every player is ranked in real life, whether they are going to be free agents or not (this would also help when it comes to accepting a player's option years or not - right now I have no idea of the type A/B status of those guys until I decline their option year).

2. The top 20 percent should by Type A and I haven't noticed a problems

Yep, top 20% are type A, next top 20% type B (so 40% are either type A or B). That may or may not be the case here. However, it seems pretty clear that position groupings are not used, which is definitely not true to real life.

[thenewchuckd]

Let me try this from a different angle - to see if the correct number of type As and Bs are getting generated (regardless of class). I will assume for the moment that 20% of major league players get type A while the next 20% get type B. I will take a limit case where there are only two classes - batters and pitchers.

Now, let's focus on pitchers for the moment. In general, there are about the same number of relievers as there are starters. There may be slightly more relievers but I digress. If only 10% of relief pitchers are getting type A and another 10% are getting type B, then compensation should flip heavily towards starting pitchers. So you should see 30% of starters getting type A with another 30% getting type B. So 60% of all starters would get compensation.

To put this another way, if every team had 5 starting pitchers, 3 out of 5 would get compensation. So you would probably see starters with a good deal of innings pitched but 5+ ERAs getting type B compensation and some (barely) above average guys getting type A.

I will watch to see if there are some positions (starting pitchers or 1B) where very pedestrian players are getting compensation. If not, then it is clear not enough type A and B players are being generated, since clearly some positions are very under-represented.

[injury log]

A few points here:

* in my solo leagues, my compensation round in the draft is typically 50 picks long in a 30 team league, so there clearly is no shortage of comp-eligible FAs;

* since Type A/B designations are only known with certainty at the end of the season (not only because the player's stats matter, but because he's ranked against other players, so their stats matter too), I don't know how the game could tell you midseason with any certainty what comp status to expect. If you look at a guy's performance and ratings, you can take a reasonable guess, however;

* while I'd like the game to be perfectly accurate as Type A/B free agents go, right now there's a problem: too few players accept arbitration offers, and too many players are offered arbitration. This leads to far too many picks in the supp-1st round. The optimal solution would be to fix that - for players to accept arbitration often enough that you need to think twice about making the offer. But as a compromise solution, so that the supp-1st round isn't 80 picks long, I'm happy if slightly less than 40% of players get comp tags;

* in OOTP11 a ton of bad relievers got Type A designations. In real life, most Type A relievers would accept an arbitration offer unless they were star pitchers, since few teams would consider surrendering a draft pick to sign them (the difficulty Juan Cruz had securing a contract comes to mind, as does Rafael Soriano accepting an arbitration offer from the Braves). Not so in OOTP - these guys will refuse arbitration and just go straight to free agency. So if the game were fixed - if enough RPs got Type A tags, but equally enough RPs accepted arb offers - then using your strategy of accumulating Type A FAs, you'll just end up with a lot of overpaid bullpen arms. They'll just accept your arbitration offer instead of declaring free agency. So from your team-building point of view, you probably should be happier if those RPs are Type B, not Type A.

[gord]

Keep in mind that the comps are based on ALL PLAYERS, not just FAs for that year. So it's possible to have no type-A starters for a year if none fit the criteria. There is no guarantee that there will/should be a certain amount of As or Bs for each year.

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

Actually, it would be better if this was dynamic to say "this player projects as type A right now (but it could change later)". In fact, type A/B status should be on every player's contract screen, not just those who qualify for free agency. Every player is ranked in real life, whether they are going to be free agents or not (this would also help when it comes to accepting a player's option years or not - right now I have no idea of the type A/B status of those guys until I decline their option year).

Having the projected compensation status for players with an option in the subsequent year of their contract is a good idea.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by injury log

So from your team-building point of view, you probably should be happier if those RPs are Type B, not Type A.

I hear what you're saying about too many players accepting arbitration. I have also seen that issue. In an ideal situation, I would like it to be like the big leagues, where you have a tough decision arbitration wise (although decisions that make sense, not something where a stud will accept arbitration). Plus, I wouldn't mind if my high end bullpen guy accepted arbitration. At least I get him back next season.

So basically what you're saying is that there are actually two glitches here. 1) There are not enough Type A/B players and 2) the type A/B players do not accept arbitration often enough.

FYI: I just want some compensation for relief pitchers. Yesterday I had a 35 save guy, 3.95 ERA go without any compensation (he had an even better year the season before). I am now pretty convinced that getting a type A relief pitcher almost never happens and only the really top line guys get type B.

Plus I checked and I am pretty sure that no other positions are over-represented to make up for the under-represented positions.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by gord

Keep in mind that the comps are based on ALL PLAYERS, not just FAs for that year.

I am certainly keeping that in mind. But regardless, there are too few type A/B players, by a good margin.

On the other hand, as was mentioned, too many decline arbitration. So perhaps the system is balanced, in its own way.

Still, this part of the game is not true to real life.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

So basically what you're saying is that there are actually two glitches here. 1) There are not enough Type A/B players

You're saying that, not me. I said this:

Originally Posted by injury log

there clearly is no shortage of comp-eligible FAs

[thenewchuckd]

Let me offer another real life example of a player who has been talked about in Toronto: 2B Aaron Hill. He is putting together his 2nd disappointing season in a row, hitting .225 at the moment with only 6 HRs. Last season he was not much better, although he did manage 26 HRs but with a .205 average.

The Blue Jays have already dropped his last option year and will almost certainly drop the other two, when the time comes, to make him eligible for FA at the end of the season. He is almost a lock to be a type B FA, even with the crappy stats. And since the Blue Jays have nobody in the organization at 2B other than Hill, it is a no-brainer that they will offer arbitration. Even if he takes it and is a bit overpaid, at least they are not paying 7.5 million and they have a 2B.

In the game, I have to adjust his contract to do the same, but that's another story. Anyhow, once I do that, he usually goes on to have a .250 kind of season with a decent amount of HRs. That's bordering into type A for a 2B, actually. But more often than not, he goes without any compensation.

So yeah, it seems that relief pitchers are not the only ones who get short changed.

As for your league with all the supplementary picks... Like I said, maybe it gets the number of picks right because of other issues. But that doesn't mean the underlying principles of Type A/B are there.

[thenewchuckd]

Finally, I was actually wondering if the game does have dynamic text when it tells you about the Type A/B status. Because I swear in the game said one of my players was Type A, only to have to change to Type B the next month.

But... as for this:

since Type A/B designations are only known with certainty at the end of the season (not only because the player's stats matter, but because he's ranked against other players, so their stats matter too), I don't know how the game could tell you midseason with any certainty what comp status to expect.

I could see many ways to program this. One would be to project his stats to the end of the season. I'm not saying it would have to be recalculated every game day but once a month or something would be more useful than once a season. And with a better decriptive text saying that it is just a projection (since the current text implies that it is a fact).

People seem to have no problem projecting it with the Elias system:

Elias Rankings Update: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

Let me offer another real life example of a player who has been talked about in Toronto: 2B Aaron Hill. He is putting together his 2nd disappointing season in a row, hitting .225 at the moment with only 6 HRs. Last season he was not much better, although he did manage 26 HRs but with a .205 average.

The Blue Jays have already dropped his last option year and will almost certainly drop the other two, when the time comes, to make him eligible for FA at the end of the season. He is almost a lock to be a type B FA, even with the crappy stats. And since the Blue Jays have nobody in the organization at 2B other than Hill, it is a no-brainer that they will offer arbitration. Even if he takes it and is a bit overpaid, at least they are not paying 7.5 million and they have a 2B.

In the game, I have to adjust his contract to do the same, but that's another story. Anyhow, once I do that, he usually goes on to have a .250 kind of season with a decent amount of HRs. That's bordering into type A for a 2B, actually. But more often than not, he goes without any compensation.

So yeah, it seems that relief pitchers are not the only ones who get short changed.

As for your league with all the supplementary picks... Like I said, maybe it gets the number of picks right because of other issues. But that doesn't mean the underlying principles of Type A/B are there.

I think we need more than a handful of examples to prove anything. I don't tend to see anything too crazy in the number of A/B players. It seems to me at seasons end all the good free agents are type A's, and the rest are scattered around between type B and no compensation. I would say I think there are probably too few type Bs, since there are definitely a few guys who had fairly full-time work, put up good stats, and have no compensation.

Of course, I have noticed the arbitration issue. In all my time playing, I think I've maybe once had a player accept arbitration. Maybe. And that was playing an OOTP 10/11/12 league through roughly 75 years. Sure, there are some guys who will obviously reject it, but lots of older players, or more marginal ones, would surely accept.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by UWHabs

I think we need more than a handful of examples to prove anything.

In terms of relief pitchers, I am only giving examples that I think really stand out. I could give a list about a mile long after simming quite a few seasons. The examples I'm giving are pretty crazy, over the top examples, at least when you look at real life. Nobody in real life is going to have a 35 save season and go without compensation (should be type A, even with a lowish ERA).

The Hill example is also kind of over the top, especially when you look at real life. Although I do admit that, for position players, the system seems close(ish). Positions like 1B seem to get more compensation, while 2B and SS less. But if everyone is lumped together, that's to be expected.

Also, the only other thing I wonder, is if the classification separates National League and American League. If lumped together, National League pitchers will always naturally get more compensation than American League (because American League guys face the DH), which may be part of my issue.