2011 Red Sox Season thread

[theweatherman]

The baseball season is nearly upon us. This thread is to chronicle and voice your opinion about this year's Sox team (which looks to be a contender). Anyone is free to voice their opinion.

[theweatherman]

To open discussion, I'll post a question:

What is your prediction for the Red Sox this year? Record and playoff status?

My prediction:

95-67, 1st AL East
Divisional: Win in 4 over Minnesota
League CS: Win in 6 over New York
World Series: Lose in 7 to Philadelphia

[Tony M]

Lester threw 4 innings yesterday - 25 pitches, 25 strikes, 0 balls... that's control!!

[LFC1892]

How's Crawford looking?

[Bluenoser]

I'm a bit worried about DiceK - he hasn't looked too good thus far in ST.

I'm predicting 95 - 105 wins and taking the series in 6 over the Phillies.

One things for sure, we won't have a problem scoring runs this year. I can see a healthy Gonzalez hitting 45 - 50 jacks playing half the season at Fenway.

[TribeFanInNC]

I think they are the favorites in the AL, but there are a lot of 'ifs' in the rotation. Beckett and Lackey would have to rebound and Buchholz would have to become a true #2 starter.

I'm less worried about Beckett and Buchholz. I'm not real confident about Lackey or Dice K though.

I think they will win the AL, but lose to the Phillies. Pretty much based on the rotation alone.

I'm expecting good things out of Gonzalez.

[CD1083]

91-71 - 2nd in AL East

Missing Playoffs.

Nothing against the BoSox, but I think the AL Central will take the Wildcard this year.

Looks to be a dogfight between the Twinks and ChiSox.

[damientheomen3]

94-68 - 2nd in AL East, wildcard

I don't think the Sox will make the WS, but I also don't think the Phillies will (that offense is damn near terrible). I just get the feeling that Nova will come through in a big way for the Yankees and get them the division win and to the WS, which they will subsequently lose to my Brewers.

[ry1220]

People who put the Sox in 2nd place in the AL East (Chase, dto3) are you both expecting the Yankees to win the division?!?!?

Red Sox will probably win 98-103 games, breeze through the AL playoffs and win the WS in 6 or 7 over either the Phils or Giants.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by ry1220

People who put the Sox in 2nd place in the AL East (Chase, dto3) are you both expecting the Yankees to win the division?!?!?

Red Sox will probably win 98-103 games, breeze through the AL playoffs and win the WS in 6 or 7 over either the Phils or Giants.

Yessir. I'd say CC, Hughes and Burnett have a great year, Nova comes through huge, and that offense does as well as it should. Iunno, I'm just getting this feeling.

I also get the feeling that Lackey doesn't bounce back, Beckett is average, and Dice K doesn't find himself.

[CD1083]

Originally Posted by ry1220

People who put the Sox in 2nd place in the AL East (Chase, dto3) are you both expecting the Yankees to win the division?!?!?

Red Sox will probably win 98-103 games, breeze through the AL playoffs and win the WS in 6 or 7 over either the Phils or Giants.

With what rotation?

[ry1220]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

Yessir. I'd say CC, Hughes and Burnett have a great year, Nova comes through huge, and that offense does as well as it should. Iunno, I'm just getting this feeling.

I also get the feeling that Lackey doesn't bounce back, Beckett is average, and Dice K doesn't find himself.

I trust Lackey, Beckett and Matsuzaka more than I do Burnett, Nova, and ____. Though, I'll concede you Hughes and CC having a great year.

[damientheomen3]

My friend has observed that Burnett is having a great spring, and I trust him very much on all things Yankees. Nova is a big prospect, and I just get the feeling, I don't know why, that he'll be something close to the pitching equivalent of an Albert Pujols (coming out of nowhere to dominate right out of the gate). I just get the feeling it's gonna happen, it's not really anything you can pin any logic to.

[Goody]

Yankess and Sox should always get to the playoffs as a division winner and a wildcard. Anything less is failure with this financial control (and the favoritism they get from free agent players who want to win) they have over the league. After that, at least the playoffs can be fun...for the teams that were good enough to make it against tougher odds.

[Gern44]

I'm a Sox fan and I think we are in trouble.

Lester and Bucholtz will be solid. One will win 16/17 games, the other 19/20. Lackey and Beckett will be average. 10-12 wins max for either of them. DiceK will stink. The bullpen hasn't shown anything. At all. I'd really like to see Paps bounce back and have a great year.

Realistically, AGone, Crawford, Yuk and Pedroia are the only good poistion players.

Does anyone really think Ortiz is going to crack .250?... and with how many HR's? 20? And why would anyone be high on Ellsbury again? JD Drew is still in right. Cameron is our 5th OF. Scutero at SS and Salty behind the plate. I don't see how that lineup strikes fear in opposing pitchers.

There's too many left handed bats, not enough righties and unless Yuk and Pedrioa REALLY pick up their power numbers, we only have AGone going yard regularly.

I'd say 90 wins is possible. I dont see the playoffs in sight. The AL Central is strong, but they may beat each other up pretty good too. That would be the only way the Sox would snag the Wild Card.

[Splitter24]

Originally Posted by Gern44

I'm a Sox fan and I think we are in trouble.

Lester and Bucholtz will be solid. One will win 16/17 games, the other 19/20. Lackey and Beckett will be average. 10-12 wins max for either of them. DiceK will stink. The bullpen hasn't shown anything. At all. I'd really like to see Paps bounce back and have a great year.

Realistically, AGone, Crawford, Yuk and Pedroia are the only good poistion players.

Does anyone really think Ortiz is going to crack .250?... and with how many HR's? 20? And why would anyone be high on Ellsbury again? JD Drew is still in right. Cameron is our 5th OF. Scutero at SS and Salty behind the plate. I don't see how that lineup strikes fear in opposing pitchers.

There's too many left handed bats, not enough righties and unless Yuk and Pedrioa REALLY pick up their power numbers, we only have AGone going yard regularly.

I'd say 90 wins is possible. I dont see the playoffs in sight. The AL Central is strong, but they may beat each other up pretty good too. That would be the only way the Sox would snag the Wild Card.

Lester and Buchholz, OK, I agree. Lester is a Cy Young candidate. I don't think Buchholz pitched anywhere as well as his ERA suggested last year, but he still should be good this year. Beckett is an enigma. Has a bunch of talent, but you never know what you're going to get. The "Beckett Pattern" says he'll have a good year this year. He's rarely average. He's either good or crappy. DiceK can go back to Japan (which means he'll light it up this year just to spite me). Lackey I don't get where you're coming from. He had an average ERA+ last year and still won 14 games (obviously run support helps). He's pitched pretty well this spring. And he's healthy. Given average run support from this lineup, there's no reason that he shouldn't win 15 games this year.

"The bullpen hasn't shown anything." You do know that you're basing relievers' performance on 5 innings, right? If I told you at the end of last season that we would have a bullpen of Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Reyes, etc., would you be worried about it? That sounds like a pretty decent pen to me. Obviously, it would help if Papelbon bounces back to something approximating pre-2010.

What are you basing your Ortiz sub-.250, 20 HR performance on? He hit .271 with 32 HR's (5th in the AL, mind you) last season despite having another wretched April. Yes, he's 35 and could hit an OOTP-style decline any day. But his 137 OPS+ says he's still generating runs.

As far as Ellsbury, if there is one player who's poised for a breakout year, it's him. He's entering his prime and is healthy (which before last year's collision was NEVER an issue). Even if he only takes a tiny step forward from 2009, he'd still be a decent player. He's on fire this spring (which doesn't necessarily mean much). Still my call for breakout Red Sox player for 2011 (and I'm not an Ellsbury fan boy).

As far as J.D. Drew? Well, put aside his $14mil contract that finally expires at the end of the season. What you have is an OF whose OPS+ over the last 3 years is 126. And for all the knocks about his "owwies", he's still good for 135-140 games a year. Will he ever live up to that contract? No. But you have a decent offensive and defensive RF who will never get his due as a solid contributor to one of the best offenses in baseball.

Scutaro played with a bum shoulder all last year, but he's a mediocre offensive player anyway. So whatever.

Saltalamacchia, who knows? I'm finally glad somebody is giving him a shot to be a regular. But I have no idea what he's going to do.

Youkilis and Pedroia are back and healthy, so I can't see how they won't make things better.

Bottom line, this is a team that won 89 gasmes last year despite just about everything that could go wrong injury-wise happening. They brought in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (versus losing Beltre and Martinez) and retooled the bullpen. And they'll be deep in arms at AAA to help cover any pitching injuries. This is a team that looks like it's poised to get back into that 95-97 win area that they're usually in.

[myasu]

Originally Posted by Splitter24

Lester and Buchholz, OK, I agree. Lester is a Cy Young candidate. I don't think Buchholz pitched anywhere as well as his ERA suggested last year, but he still should be good this year. Beckett is an enigma. Has a bunch of talent, but you never know what you're going to get. The "Beckett Pattern" says he'll have a good year this year. He's rarely average. He's either good or crappy. DiceK can go back to Japan (which means he'll light it up this year just to spite me). Lackey I don't get where you're coming from. He had an average ERA+ last year and still won 14 games (obviously run support helps). He's pitched pretty well this spring. And he's healthy. Given average run support from this lineup, there's no reason that he shouldn't win 15 games this year.

"The bullpen hasn't shown anything." You do know that you're basing relievers' performance on 5 innings, right? If I told you at the end of last season that we would have a bullpen of Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Reyes, etc., would you be worried about it? That sounds like a pretty decent pen to me. Obviously, it would help if Papelbon bounces back to something approximating pre-2010.

What are you basing your Ortiz sub-.250, 20 HR performance on? He hit .271 with 32 HR's (5th in the AL, mind you) last season despite having another wretched April. Yes, he's 35 and could hit an OOTP-style decline any day. But his 137 OPS+ says he's still generating runs.

As far as Ellsbury, if there is one player who's poised for a breakout year, it's him. He's entering his prime and is healthy (which before last year's collision was NEVER an issue). Even if he only takes a tiny step forward from 2009, he'd still be a decent player. He's on fire this spring (which doesn't necessarily mean much). Still my call for breakout Red Sox player for 2011 (and I'm not an Ellsbury fan boy).

As far as J.D. Drew? Well, put aside his $14mil contract that finally expires at the end of the season. What you have is an OF whose OPS+ over the last 3 years is 126. And for all the knocks about his "owwies", he's still good for 135-140 games a year. Will he ever live up to that contract? No. But you have a decent offensive and defensive RF who will never get his due as a solid contributor to one of the best offenses in baseball.

Scutaro played with a bum shoulder all last year, but he's a mediocre offensive player anyway. So whatever.

Saltalamacchia, who knows? I'm finally glad somebody is giving him a shot to be a regular. But I have no idea what he's going to do.

Youkilis and Pedroia are back and healthy, so I can't see how they won't make things better.

Bottom line, this is a team that won 89 gasmes last year despite just about everything that could go wrong injury-wise happening. They brought in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (versus losing Beltre and Martinez) and retooled the bullpen. And they'll be deep in arms at AAA to help cover any pitching injuries. This is a team that looks like it's poised to get back into that 95-97 win area that they're usually in.

I totally agree with you.
So far, I am just happy to see almost zero injuries on this team.

[Gern44]

Splitter, there's a ton of valid points in there... but many of them make my point as well. I'm not saying the Sox will stink... 90 wins is good. But way too many people have them winning the AL Pennat, and even the World Series. (For the record, I listen to WAY too much WEEI and the Sports Hub!)

Look at your post... there's a ton of excuses in there. Yes, my Bullpen observation is based on only 5 innings (without looking it up, I'm not sure if thats correct or not, but i have no problem going with it). And with the same sample size, how can you argue that it will be solid? Wheeler, Reyes and Jenks all have questions. Why didnt anyone else give Jenks a shot as a closer? The role he certainly wants. Wheeler has always been erratic. I believe that Reyes is supposedly looking quite good tho.

I do expect Bard to be solid, and I completely admit that I've no idea what to expect from Paps. And all those reasons are why I don't feel confident about this team.

I think everyone agrees on the starters. Beckett can't be worse than last year. I agree with Buckholtz in terms of the numbers being a bit better than he actually was, but watching him pitch, when he is good... he is very good. His curve can be phenomenal. Lackey should be better in this, his 2nd year, with the Sox. Lester is Lester. As for DiceK... well, im gonna move on...

In 09, Ortiz his .238. Last year .270. Do you think he's going to get better? I don't. If he does, I'll be one more person believing he found a way to juice again, which I wont be happy about. Ellsbury is poised for a breakout year? Again?? He was poised for one last year as well. Scuturo has guts, but at his best, as you said, he's average. At least he's better than Lugo and Rentawreck.

I don't disagree with most of your other points. My point remains tho... Why does everyone have such high expectations for this team when there are so many questions? Perhaps its my "show me something first" attitude.

[David Watts]

So how much do y'all think the Lowrie kid will get to play?

[Splitter24]

Originally Posted by David Watts

So how much do y'all think the Lowrie kid will get to play?

I love Jed Lowrie. I was hoping he would get a shot to start at SS. But given his injury history (fragile) and the open question as to whether he would actually be able to play an effective SS at the major league level, he's about as good a utility IF that you'll find. He'll probably get 200-250 AB's this year just by filling in for injured/resting players.