2011 rosters and projected performances...

Mink Snopes · 02-16-2011, 08:30 PM

I tried this on the OOTP 12 forum, to no avail. I think this may actually be the proper place to ask about this.

I don't own the game yet, and so am very vague on what OOTP is able to do.

I noticed the following in the newsletter about OOTP 12:

Quote:

2011 Major League Rosters

Here's a treat: the best roster set we've ever produced, from the big leagues' top stars to the guys making their debuts in rookie leagues. All players are individually rated with updated statistics and realistic contract data. Last year's top draft picks are included too. Could Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, with the veteran leadership of newly-acquired All-Star Jayson Werth, help propel the Washington Nationals to the top of the National League East in coming seasons?

I am interested in playing current MLB seasons, using actual rosters with players whose performances ("true talent") have been projected for the current season, essentially, what Diamond Mind calls projection disks (a player's data table is based on his 3 most recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, with an aging component).

Would the 2011 MLB roster set mentioned in the newsletter be something like the projection disk used by DMB, and if so, is it possible to play the 2011 season with OOTP in an essentially "closed" environment, that is, something like a historical replay, but using the 2011 roster with projected stats?

Thanks much for any info.

TribeFanInNC · 02-16-2011, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mink Snopes

Would the 2011 MLB roster set mentioned in the newsletter be something like the projection disk used by DMB, and if so, is it possible to play the 2011 season with OOTP in an essentially "closed" environment, that is, something like a historical replay, but using the 2011 roster with projected stats?

Well, I'm not super familiar with the DMB projection disks - it has been many a year since I played DMB. But I think the answer to your question is yes...but better!

OOTP 12 will come with 2011 Opening Day rosters (and full minors if desired), then yes you can play out the 2011 season using the ratings the players are given. The game's aging and development model will be in effect and players develop/age as appropriate. I think it feel give you a true feeling of playing 2011 before it actually happens!

Then you can continue and play 2012 if you'd like. Then 2013. And on and on. The best of both worlds IMO.

Mink Snopes · 02-16-2011, 09:36 PM

Thanks much for the reply.

Would you have an idea what the player ratings (projected performances) for the 2011 roster are based on? Would the projections (or underlying formulas) be somewhat similar to the projections and systems found in some of your standard forecasting sytems (say, PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc.)?

Also, in the sim I have played (DMB) I tend to like to play a season that uses current rosters and projected stats at the same pace the real-life MLB season progresses. When you talk about the aging/development model in OOTP, is there a way to "turn this off" (or dampen it) for the season you are playing, so that a player's talent level remains more or less the same later in the season as it was at the start of the season. I understand that in real life a player's projection may improve (or decline) somewhat as a season progresses, but the actual change tends to be limited because only small sample sizes from an incomplete season are being added to the consideration of his true talent, which, at the start of the season, is based on a large sample size using several of his past seasons' performances.

Again, thanks for your input.

TribeFanInNC · 02-17-2011, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mink Snopes

Would the projections (or underlying formulas) be somewhat similar to the projections and systems found in some of your standard forecasting systems (say, PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc.)?

While I am not an expert in the area, I believe this to be true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mink Snopes

When you talk about the aging/development model in OOTP, is there a way to "turn this off" (or dampen it) for the season you are playing, so that a player's talent level remains more or less the same later in the season as it was at the start of the season.

Yes, this can be turned off and/or modified to lessen the effects if you want to do more replay style modelling as you describe.

Mink Snopes · 02-17-2011, 09:17 AM

This sounds good, and definitely worth a try.

Thanks for your help.

02-16-2011, 09:36 PM	#3
Mink Snopes Bat Boy Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 16	Thanks much for the reply. Would you have an idea what the player ratings (projected performances) for the 2011 roster are based on? Would the projections (or underlying formulas) be somewhat similar to the projections and systems found in some of your standard forecasting sytems (say, PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc.)? Also, in the sim I have played (DMB) I tend to like to play a season that uses current rosters and projected stats at the same pace the real-life MLB season progresses. When you talk about the aging/development model in OOTP, is there a way to "turn this off" (or dampen it) for the season you are playing, so that a player's talent level remains more or less the same later in the season as it was at the start of the season. I understand that in real life a player's projection may improve (or decline) somewhat as a season progresses, but the actual change tends to be limited because only small sample sizes from an incomplete season are being added to the consideration of his true talent, which, at the start of the season, is based on a large sample size using several of his past seasons' performances. Again, thanks for your input.

02-17-2011, 09:17 AM	#5
Mink Snopes Bat Boy Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 16	This sounds good, and definitely worth a try. Thanks for your help.