How unrealistic is this? Opinions...

[cblacker]

So I had bases loaded with 2 outs and a full count so the runners are moving with the pitch. Batter hits a single to center field. The runner at second is Chone Figgins, who has very good speed. In real life, I would expect him to score from second without a throw given that he was running with the pitch. But in the game I get the dialog box asking me if I want Chone Figgins to try to score, the ball is in average depth and Adam Jones has a great arm, blah, blah, blah. Since I'm adamant that Figgins should definitely score on this play, I send him and he gets thrown out, much to my dismay.

So my question is: How realistic is it for Adam Jones to be able to throw Chone Figgins in this situation? Do I have a legitimate complaint? Thanks.

[RchW]

No

[robc]

You get the dialog box asking whether to advance the runner only when it isn't a gimmie that the runner will be safe or out. So, that you got the prompt tells you right there he isn't going to be automatically safe.

The second thing is sample size. Even if this particular event had a 1% chance to throw the runner out, it still can happen. If a rare event happens 99 times in 100 tries you know something might be screwy. A player's batting average can have a large variance from real life over the whole season and not be too unusual.

[Sparrow]

I see this as Figgins froze or even started heading back to second as he thought Jones might be able to make the play.

Or the ball is smoked right at Jones, one hop into his mitt and he comes up firing.

[RchW]

With 2 outs I send him too and expect him to score. It's not unrealistic.

Earlier this year Jose Molina did something that I thought at the time would get all the OOTP realists up in arms. Stuff happens.

In a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 25, 2010, Molina set a Blue Jays club record by throwing out four attempted basestealers in one game, including defending American League basestealing champion Carl Crawford, who was thrown out twice. This was the first time an AL catcher caught four basestealers in one game since Terry Steinbach in 1992.[5]

[SteveP]

You should have posted this on some forum that is visited by sports journalists. You would have gotten some great responses.

[cblacker]

Originally Posted by Sparrow

I see this as Figgins froze or even started heading back to second as he thought Jones might be able to make the play.

Or the ball is smoked right at Jones, one hop into his mitt and he comes up firing.

Well, there was two outs, but perhaps Figgins had a temporary brain lapse and hesitated or, as you say, maybe it was just hit so hard and went right to Jones and he made the perfect throw. I suppose I buy it. Stuff happens.

[jbergey22]

Ill take the side of cblacker here. No he should not have been thrown out here. He should be half way home by the time Jones picks up the ball unless he fell down and forgot to get back up.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Ill take the side of cblacker here. No he should not have been thrown out here. He should be half way home by the time Jones picks up the ball unless he fell down and forgot to get back up.

Are you saying that Fig should score 100% of the time?

[Sparrow]

Right, the two outs does make him thinking it was going to be caught less of an issue, though a couple games ago in real life Andres Torres took off on a routine flyball. Problem was there was only 1 out and he was easily doubled off. So...I'll go with brain lapse.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RchW

Are you saying that Fig should score 100% of the time?

99.9% Unless he falls down is the only way he wouldnt.

If he runs when the pitch is delivered like he should, he should be rounding 3rd by time the ball hits the ground in the outfield. He should be halfway home by the time the OF gets the ball. An outfielder isnt even going to throw to the plate in most of the time in this situation. I cant believe this is debatable.

About the only situation I think there could be a play at the plate is Bengie Molina running and a line drive to left in Fenway.(outfield can play shallow there because the fence is so shallow) It might end up only being a 150 foot throw instead of the 275 foot throw from centerfield as in the stated example.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

99.9% Unless he falls down is the only way he wouldnt.

If he runs when the pitch is delivered like he should, he should be rounding 3rd by time the ball hits the ground in the outfield. He should be halfway home by the time the OF gets the ball. An outfielder isnt even going to throw to the plate in most of the time in this situation. I cant believe this is debatable.

About the only situation I think there could be a play at the plate is Bengie Molina running and a line drive to left in Fenway.(outfield can play shallow there because the fence is so short) It might end up only being a 150 foot throw instead of the 275 foot throw from centerfield as in the stated example.

I didn't know 37 feet was short...

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

I didn't know 37 feet was short...

corrected for you. Thanks

[edm]

I agree its pretty unlikely that a player would get thrown out in this situation. especially one with speed. Even if the runner wasn't running on the play I'd expect him to score most of the time.

Any chance the outfield was playing in?

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

99.9%

So, then if by random chance the next 999 times this happens and the runner is safe it is realistic?


Could be as simple as pbp not having every possible real life explanation of what could have occurred. This could include slipping on a non-rain day since the only time I've seen a slip mentioned is on a wet field. Or he could have stumbled. If the pbp went on to say "he would have beat the play if he hadn't stumbled going around third" we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Kind of like the pbp never used to describe the non-throw on double plays and users would complain there was no way that slow runner should have beat the throw to 1b, when if fact no throw had been made.

Could have been bluffed into leaning or taking a step back towards 2b by one of the middle infielders giving up his edge.

Could have miscut the 3b bag going too wide.

Could be he got there at the same time as the ball and was blocked off the plate due to a late start.


Maybe he lost concentration all on his own and got a late start, perhaps a 1 in a 1,000 thing for him?

I see things happen every season that never should. IMHO if this becomes a 100% certain score in OOTP then OOTP is not simulating real life.

My 2 cents.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sweed

So, then if by random chance the next 999 times this happens and the runner is safe it is realistic?


Could be as simple as pbp not having every possible real life explanation of what could have occurred. This could include slipping on a non-rain day since the only time I've seen a slip mentioned is on a wet field. Or he could have stumbled. If the pbp went on to say "he would have beat the play if he hadn't stumbled going around third" we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Kind of like the pbp never used to describe the non-throw on double plays and users would complain there was no way that slow runner should have beat the throw to 1b, when if fact no throw had been made.

Could have been bluffed into leaning or taking a step back towards 2b by one of the middle infielders giving up his edge.

Could have miscut the 3b bag going too wide.

Could be he got there at the same time as the ball and was blocked off the plate due to a late start.


Maybe he lost concentration all on his own and got a late start, perhaps a 1 in a 1,000 thing for him?

I see things happen every season that never should. IMHO if this becomes a 100% certain score in OOTP then OOTP is not simulating real life.

My 2 cents.

I agree with all of this.

[thklein]

If it's a screaming line drive to center field that Jones fields cleanly and comes up firing, Chone could be out by several steps. Especially if Jones was playing in. Not unrealistic at all.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by thklein

If it's a screaming line drive to center field that Jones fields cleanly and comes up firing, Chone could be out by several steps. Especially if Jones was playing in. Not unrealistic at all.

LOL

Its a full count with the bases loaded and 2 outs you know right? The guy on 2nd is running as soon as the pitcher goes into his motion and doesnt have to worry about a flyball being caught. He would be past 3rd and likely around halfway to home by the time the ball is fielded no matter how hard it is hit.

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by cblacker

So I had bases loaded with 2 outs and a full count so the runners are moving with the pitch. Batter hits a single to center field. The runner at second is Chone Figgins, who has very good speed. In real life, I would expect him to score from second without a throw given that he was running with the pitch. But in the game I get the dialog box asking me if I want Chone Figgins to try to score, the ball is in average depth and Adam Jones has a great arm, blah, blah, blah. Since I'm adamant that Figgins should definitely score on this play, I send him and he gets thrown out, much to my dismay.

So my question is: How realistic is it for Adam Jones to be able to throw Chone Figgins in this situation? Do I have a legitimate complaint? Thanks.

No, the ball was only average depth and you said Jones has a great arm rating in your league. Figgins would be thrown out almost every time in real life.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

LOL

Its a full count with the bases loaded and 2 outs you know right? The guy on 2nd is running as soon as the pitcher goes into his motion and doesnt have to worry about a flyball being caught. He would be past 3rd and likely around halfway to home by the time the ball is fielded no matter how hard it is hit.

I agree he should score 99%+. One thing we (and OOTP) can't account for is a bad call at home. I've watched many games where the plays at home could go either way.