Disappointed that ER bug not fixed

mtw · 07-14-2010, 02:13 AM

Realizing that many people probably have pet bugs that didn't get fixed this patch, I'm still going to gripe about what for me is the most significant game play bug, one which has no workaround.

The faulty scoring of earned runs vs. unearned runs has produced 7 to 10% more unearned runs than actually occurred in my experience simming 1901 through 1910 leagues. In other words, if league ERA in MLB was 3.00, if OOTP replayed the season with the same number of runs, all other stats being equal to real life, the league ERA would be 2.70 to 2.79, a marked difference.

This is not a minor bug for people who play OOTP for the love of baseball statistics, especially for people who replay early era baseball.

It would be nice to see scoring issues get at least the same level of attention as player photos and baseball cards in a baseball sim.

Biggio509 · 07-14-2010, 05:19 AM

Here is the problem with historical leagues and if the ERAs are off. Is it the game engine, league totals, or how players are created from stats?

If the problem is solely errors than what you describe would happen. Considering that modern day baseball is being reported as pretty close then it comes down to fielding stats and how they convert to ratings. What it seems like if this is the case too bad of fielding ratings leads too many errors. Therefore, I am inclined to think there is not a problem with how errors are calculated. If they should be hits then BAs, runs, RBIs would be understated. If you turn a hit is being called an error then hitting stats should be understated. I don't think the game is so bad it treats a hit as an error for pitching stats and as a hit for batting stats. What you claim is that everything else is right. So reclassifying errors as hits so you get earned runs would complicate things.

So the question now becomes do you use neutralized stats or just real life stats? Is there a difference between the two? Are your errors high for the era.

One other thing I might think has an impact and maybe LGO can give some input to is did scorers treat all runs scored after an error with two outs as unearned in the early days of say 1871 to 1930? If this is a modern invention then your ERAs would be off compared to real ERAs because a modern rule is being applied to an era it did not exist.

To help people see if the rules are followed correctly by the game here are the actual rules.

EARNED RUNS

10.18 An earned run is a run for which the pitcher is held accountable. In determining earned runs, the inning should be reconstructed without the errors (which include catcher's interference) and passed balls, and the benefit of the doubt should always be given to the pitcher in determining which bases would have been reached by errorless play. For the purpose of determining earned runs, an intentional base on balls, regardless of the circumstances, shall be construed in exactly the same manner as any other base on balls.

(a) An earned run shall be charged every time a runner reaches home base by the aid of safe hits, sacrifice bunts, a sacrifice fly, stolen bases, putouts, fielder's choices, bases on balls, hit batters, balks or wild pitches (including a wild pitch on third strike which permits a batter to reach first base) before fielding chances have been offered to put out the offensive team. For the purpose of this rule, a defensive interference penalty shall be construed as a fielding chance.

(1) A wild pitch is solely the pitcher's fault, and contributes to an earned run just as a base on balls or a balk.

(b) No run shall be earned when scored by a runner who reaches first base

(1) on a hit or otherwise after his time at bat is prolonged by a muffed foul fly;

(2) because of interference or obstruction or

(3) because of any fielding error.

(c) No run shall be earned when scored by a runner whose life is prolonged by an error, if such runner would have been put out by errorless play.

(d) No run shall be earned when the runner's advance is aided by an error, a passed ball, or defensive interference or obstruction, if the scorer judges that the run would not have scored without the aid of such misplay.

(e) An error by a pitcher is treated exactly the same as an error by any other fielder in computing earned runs.

(f) Whenever a fielding error occurs, the pitcher shall be given the benefit of the doubt in determining to which bases any runners would have advanced had the fielding of the defensive team been errorless.

(g) When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not be charged with any run (earned or unearned) scored by a runner who was on base at the time he entered the game, nor for runs scored by any runner who reaches base on a fielder's choice which puts out a runner left on base by the preceding pitcher.

Biggio509 · 07-14-2010, 05:25 AM

This is also interesting. The accuracy of ERA calculations before 1912 might be suspect.

Earned run average - Everything on Earned run average (information, latest news, articles,...)

"Henry Chadwick is credited with first devising the statistic, which caught on as a measure of pitching effectiveness after relief pitching came into vogue in the 1900s. Prior to the 1900s—and, in fact, for many years afterward— pitchers were routinely expected to pitch a complete game, and their won-loss record was considered sufficient in determining their effectiveness. After pitchers like Otis Crandall and Charlie Hall made names for themselves as relief specialists, gauging a pitcher's effectiveness became more difficult using the traditional method of tabulating wins and losses. The National League first kept official earned run average statistics in 1912 (the statistic was called Heydler's Statistic for a while, after then-NL secretary John Heydler), with the American League following suit afterward.

Modern-day baseball encyclopedias notate ERAs for earlier years, but these were computed many years after the actual accomplishments. Negro League pitchers are often rated by RA, or total runs allowed, since the statistics available for Negro League games did not always distinguish between earned and unearned runs."

A little more on the issue.

Glossary of terms

"Calculated as earned runs times nine, divided by innings pitched. For a few years after being introduced as an official stat in the National League in 1912 and the American League in 1913, runs aided by stolen bases were not counted as earned. For years before 1912, ERA has been constructed from raw data, but for some teams in some seasons, earned runs cannot be identified with perfect certainty."

So there is problems with certainity of ERA and for at least a few years after 1912 ERA was calculated differently as in if the runner stole a base the run was unearned.

I am starting to think if only ERA is off then the stats you are comparing the OOTP generated ERA to are inaccurate and some cases really a different stat than what is used today.

Malleus Dei · 07-14-2010, 09:06 AM

Those of us who play out all their games and want accurate stas are driven crazy by this bug. When you watch an earned run being counted as an unearned run in front of your eyes it will make you very angry.

Biggio509 · 07-14-2010, 09:41 AM

I do not sim out a lot so I haven't noticed this. However, the original poster was posting about difference in real ERAs in the early years of baseball and OOTP generated ERAs. He seems to indicate only ERA is off. If wrongly credit earned runs were the problem, it seems that the hitting, runs, and RBIs would be off. When you look at the era two things are clear, ERA before 1912 is a guess and ERA was calculated differently than today in 1912 and a few years. So comparing totals from those days may not tell you how much this happen. Comparing modern totals will.

I understand there could be some problems but the point is here that you may not find accurate ERA stats for 1871 to the 1920's or 1930's simply records were not that good and ERA was calculated differently. If you make the stats for this period accurate by reducing earned runs it might throw off every other period.

MD, just curious what is the situation where an earned run is being credited as a run?

TribeFanInNC · 07-14-2010, 09:53 AM

I'm trying to capture some examples in a central thread:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ring-bugs.html

Hopefully we can get to the bottom of any issue.

Malleus Dei · 07-14-2010, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

I'm trying to capture some examples in a central thread

You can find mine back in the version 10 complaints.

07-14-2010, 02:13 AM	#1
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Disappointed that ER bug not fixed Realizing that many people probably have pet bugs that didn't get fixed this patch, I'm still going to gripe about what for me is the most significant game play bug, one which has no workaround. The faulty scoring of earned runs vs. unearned runs has produced 7 to 10% more unearned runs than actually occurred in my experience simming 1901 through 1910 leagues. In other words, if league ERA in MLB was 3.00, if OOTP replayed the season with the same number of runs, all other stats being equal to real life, the league ERA would be 2.70 to 2.79, a marked difference. This is not a minor bug for people who play OOTP for the love of baseball statistics, especially for people who replay early era baseball. It would be nice to see scoring issues get at least the same level of attention as player photos and baseball cards in a baseball sim. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

07-14-2010, 05:19 AM	#2
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	Here is the problem with historical leagues and if the ERAs are off. Is it the game engine, league totals, or how players are created from stats? If the problem is solely errors than what you describe would happen. Considering that modern day baseball is being reported as pretty close then it comes down to fielding stats and how they convert to ratings. What it seems like if this is the case too bad of fielding ratings leads too many errors. Therefore, I am inclined to think there is not a problem with how errors are calculated. If they should be hits then BAs, runs, RBIs would be understated. If you turn a hit is being called an error then hitting stats should be understated. I don't think the game is so bad it treats a hit as an error for pitching stats and as a hit for batting stats. What you claim is that everything else is right. So reclassifying errors as hits so you get earned runs would complicate things. So the question now becomes do you use neutralized stats or just real life stats? Is there a difference between the two? Are your errors high for the era. One other thing I might think has an impact and maybe LGO can give some input to is did scorers treat all runs scored after an error with two outs as unearned in the early days of say 1871 to 1930? If this is a modern invention then your ERAs would be off compared to real ERAs because a modern rule is being applied to an era it did not exist. To help people see if the rules are followed correctly by the game here are the actual rules. EARNED RUNS 10.18 An earned run is a run for which the pitcher is held accountable. In determining earned runs, the inning should be reconstructed without the errors (which include catcher's interference) and passed balls, and the benefit of the doubt should always be given to the pitcher in determining which bases would have been reached by errorless play. For the purpose of determining earned runs, an intentional base on balls, regardless of the circumstances, shall be construed in exactly the same manner as any other base on balls. (a) An earned run shall be charged every time a runner reaches home base by the aid of safe hits, sacrifice bunts, a sacrifice fly, stolen bases, putouts, fielder's choices, bases on balls, hit batters, balks or wild pitches (including a wild pitch on third strike which permits a batter to reach first base) before fielding chances have been offered to put out the offensive team. For the purpose of this rule, a defensive interference penalty shall be construed as a fielding chance. (1) A wild pitch is solely the pitcher's fault, and contributes to an earned run just as a base on balls or a balk. (b) No run shall be earned when scored by a runner who reaches first base (1) on a hit or otherwise after his time at bat is prolonged by a muffed foul fly; (2) because of interference or obstruction or (3) because of any fielding error. (c) No run shall be earned when scored by a runner whose life is prolonged by an error, if such runner would have been put out by errorless play. (d) No run shall be earned when the runner's advance is aided by an error, a passed ball, or defensive interference or obstruction, if the scorer judges that the run would not have scored without the aid of such misplay. (e) An error by a pitcher is treated exactly the same as an error by any other fielder in computing earned runs. (f) Whenever a fielding error occurs, the pitcher shall be given the benefit of the doubt in determining to which bases any runners would have advanced had the fielding of the defensive team been errorless. (g) When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not be charged with any run (earned or unearned) scored by a runner who was on base at the time he entered the game, nor for runs scored by any runner who reaches base on a fielder's choice which puts out a runner left on base by the preceding pitcher.

07-14-2010, 05:25 AM	#3
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	This is also interesting. The accuracy of ERA calculations before 1912 might be suspect. Earned run average - Everything on Earned run average (information, latest news, articles,...) "Henry Chadwick is credited with first devising the statistic, which caught on as a measure of pitching effectiveness after relief pitching came into vogue in the 1900s. Prior to the 1900s—and, in fact, for many years afterward— pitchers were routinely expected to pitch a complete game, and their won-loss record was considered sufficient in determining their effectiveness. After pitchers like Otis Crandall and Charlie Hall made names for themselves as relief specialists, gauging a pitcher's effectiveness became more difficult using the traditional method of tabulating wins and losses. The National League first kept official earned run average statistics in 1912 (the statistic was called Heydler's Statistic for a while, after then-NL secretary John Heydler), with the American League following suit afterward. Modern-day baseball encyclopedias notate ERAs for earlier years, but these were computed many years after the actual accomplishments. Negro League pitchers are often rated by RA, or total runs allowed, since the statistics available for Negro League games did not always distinguish between earned and unearned runs." A little more on the issue. Glossary of terms "Calculated as earned runs times nine, divided by innings pitched. For a few years after being introduced as an official stat in the National League in 1912 and the American League in 1913, runs aided by stolen bases were not counted as earned. For years before 1912, ERA has been constructed from raw data, but for some teams in some seasons, earned runs cannot be identified with perfect certainty." So there is problems with certainity of ERA and for at least a few years after 1912 ERA was calculated differently as in if the runner stole a base the run was unearned. I am starting to think if only ERA is off then the stats you are comparing the OOTP generated ERA to are inaccurate and some cases really a different stat than what is used today.

07-14-2010, 09:41 AM	#5
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	I do not sim out a lot so I haven't noticed this. However, the original poster was posting about difference in real ERAs in the early years of baseball and OOTP generated ERAs. He seems to indicate only ERA is off. If wrongly credit earned runs were the problem, it seems that the hitting, runs, and RBIs would be off. When you look at the era two things are clear, ERA before 1912 is a guess and ERA was calculated differently than today in 1912 and a few years. So comparing totals from those days may not tell you how much this happen. Comparing modern totals will. I understand there could be some problems but the point is here that you may not find accurate ERA stats for 1871 to the 1920's or 1930's simply records were not that good and ERA was calculated differently. If you make the stats for this period accurate by reducing earned runs it might throw off every other period. MD, just curious what is the situation where an earned run is being credited as a run?

07-14-2010, 09:53 AM	#6
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	I'm trying to capture some examples in a central thread: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ring-bugs.html Hopefully we can get to the bottom of any issue.