Which 1B to use?

milkman41 · 07-08-2010, 04:26 PM

This past offseason, in my fictional league, I signed a pair of righty first basemen at the end of the careers to compete for a 1B/DH job, and, at the end of spring training, I'm having some trouble deciding which to keep on the active roster (the other 1B/DH slot is taken up by the best hitter in the league, so I can't just keep both).

The players look like this:
Tim Estes (age 34): 10/15/14/15/10 (out of 20, contact/gap power/power/eye/avoid K)
Pepe Reyes (age 37): 16/15/16/5/12

Both players have great power, with Reyes holding a sliiight edge, but Reyes has the better contact skills. His lack of patience, however, is troubling, but I have a high-OBP lineup that would surround him (although it isn't as high as it once was...). Estes has more patience and is younger (with a better track record, too), but he has three options, whereas Reyes has none.

Their career ML slash-lines (and other stats) are:
Tim Estes: .283/.383/.567 - 144 OPS+, 496 HR, 1202-1274 BB/K ratio
Pepe Reyes: .293/.325/.504 - 118 OPS+, 375 HR, 246-1226 BB/K ratio

What complicates things is their stats from last season:
Tim Estes: .240/.332/.430 - -11.1 VORP, 100 OPS+, 33 HR, 80-122 BB/K ratio
Pepe Reyes: .289/.314/.471 - 8.9 VORP, 104 OPS+, 38 HR, 18-161 BB/K ratio

Their last five seasons in terms of VORP (going backwards in time):
Tim Estes: -11.1, 59.0, 9.4, 50.4, 8.2
Pepe Reyes: 8.9, 6.6, 13.7, 20.7, 11.7

So, basically, who should I choose? Normally I would say Estes, but the fact that he has options whereas Reyes doesn't complicates things. Also, their contracts are nearly identical, they're 1-year deals for $1M and $2M.

TribeFanInNC · 07-08-2010, 04:33 PM

I'd say Reyes probably should get the nod, assuming the player will hit like 6th or 7th. The only advantage Estes has is the ability to get on base. So if you want to have Estes hit 2nd, maybe I'd keep him (though I'm not really condoning that). But otherwise keep the guy that could drive in more runs.

milkman41 · 07-08-2010, 04:55 PM

If I choose Reyes, I'll probably bat him 3rd, or maybe 6th/7th, and if I choose Estes, I'll probably bat him 5th or 6th, maybe 2nd. But both will play mostly versus lefties, with about 1/3 of the at-bats against righties.

damientheomen3 · 07-08-2010, 04:57 PM

I'd say that based on sentamentability, it'd be estes (4 shy of 500 HR), and anyway Reyes hasn't had any super productive years in the last 5 years, so I'd pick estes.

kingcharlesxii · 07-08-2010, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman41

Their last five seasons in terms of VORP (going backwards in time):
Tim Estes: -11.1, 59.0, 9.4, 50.4, 8.2
Pepe Reyes: 8.9, 6.6, 13.7, 20.7, 11.7

Based on this I'd pick Estes, he clearly alternates good and bad seasons so that means he's pretty much guaranteed for another 50 VORP season!

philliesphan26 · 07-08-2010, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman41

Their last five seasons in terms of VORP (going backwards in time):
Tim Estes: -11.1, 59.0, 9.4, 50.4, 8.2
Pepe Reyes: 8.9, 6.6, 13.7, 20.7, 11.7

At that alternating pace, if you keep Estes he's bound to have a VORP over 50!

milkman41 · 07-08-2010, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingcharlesxii

Based on this I'd pick Estes, he clearly alternates good and bad seasons so that means he's pretty much guaranteed for another 50 VORP season!

I was thinking that too, but the fact that he has options means he can stay in the minors will I test-drive Reyes. Gah I wasn't expecting both to accept my contract offers! lol

Nutlaw · 07-08-2010, 06:15 PM

If these guys will primarily play against lefties, do either of them have a noticeable split? Basically, what are their ratings against LHP?

Has Estes been losing contact lately? A 10/20 seems to be getting dangerously low. Have either of these guys been losing any ratings over the past couple of years?

Also, depending upon your league's rules, just because Estes has minor league options remaining doesn't mean that he'll accept a demotion to the minors (again, unless you disabled that ability).

milkman41 · 07-08-2010, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

If these guys will primarily play against lefties, do either of them have a noticeable split? Basically, what are their ratings against LHP?

Estes: 11/15/15
Reyes: 17/17/5

So they basically have the same ratings as overall.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

Has Estes been losing contact lately? A 10/20 seems to be getting dangerously low. Have either of these guys been losing any ratings over the past couple of years?

Estes hit his ratings peak in 2026, and has been declining ever since (I'm in 2037 right now). He has been at 12 and 11 since 2031, and has had some great seasons since 2031. Reyes' ratings have been pretty much constant since he entered the league in 2031, but he is 2037, so he could fall off at any time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

Also, depending upon your league's rules, just because Estes has minor league options remaining doesn't mean that he'll accept a demotion to the minors (again, unless you disabled that ability).

He does have the ability to decline a demotion, that is true.

dmarco82 · 07-09-2010, 12:01 AM

How about shopping both players and seeing which one generates the better offers. You can see which one has more interest in your league, which may help sway your decision one way or another.

Left-handed Badger · 07-10-2010, 03:29 AM

Hmm, I am assuming you have 1 1/2 positions covered with 1B/DH or you wouldnt need to choose. Otherwise, I'd probably go with Estes to start and Reyes as a PH specialist (I like the idea of a Reyes type coming off the bench in certain situations). Given how close they are in hitting is there anything special about their fielding (hoping for a tiebreaker on that one, I admit)

It really depends on how much they will play in my mind. If they play a lot (say 350 ABs) I'd go with Estes. If it is a smaller dose (200 ABs) Reyes. The big thing against Reyes for me is the age. I see a lot of guys once they hit 36, while their skills are already slowly eroding, get on the bullet train of erosion.

07-08-2010, 04:26 PM	#1
milkman41 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 94	Which 1B to use? This past offseason, in my fictional league, I signed a pair of righty first basemen at the end of the careers to compete for a 1B/DH job, and, at the end of spring training, I'm having some trouble deciding which to keep on the active roster (the other 1B/DH slot is taken up by the best hitter in the league, so I can't just keep both). The players look like this: Tim Estes (age 34): 10/15/14/15/10 (out of 20, contact/gap power/power/eye/avoid K) Pepe Reyes (age 37): 16/15/16/5/12 Both players have great power, with Reyes holding a sliiight edge, but Reyes has the better contact skills. His lack of patience, however, is troubling, but I have a high-OBP lineup that would surround him (although it isn't as high as it once was...). Estes has more patience and is younger (with a better track record, too), but he has three options, whereas Reyes has none. Their career ML slash-lines (and other stats) are: Tim Estes: .283/.383/.567 - 144 OPS+, 496 HR, 1202-1274 BB/K ratio Pepe Reyes: .293/.325/.504 - 118 OPS+, 375 HR, 246-1226 BB/K ratio What complicates things is their stats from last season: Tim Estes: .240/.332/.430 - -11.1 VORP, 100 OPS+, 33 HR, 80-122 BB/K ratio Pepe Reyes: .289/.314/.471 - 8.9 VORP, 104 OPS+, 38 HR, 18-161 BB/K ratio Their last five seasons in terms of VORP (going backwards in time): Tim Estes: -11.1, 59.0, 9.4, 50.4, 8.2 Pepe Reyes: 8.9, 6.6, 13.7, 20.7, 11.7 So, basically, who should I choose? Normally I would say Estes, but the fact that he has options whereas Reyes doesn't complicates things. Also, their contracts are nearly identical, they're 1-year deals for $1M and $2M.

07-10-2010, 03:29 AM	#11
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	Hmm, I am assuming you have 1 1/2 positions covered with 1B/DH or you wouldnt need to choose. Otherwise, I'd probably go with Estes to start and Reyes as a PH specialist (I like the idea of a Reyes type coming off the bench in certain situations). Given how close they are in hitting is there anything special about their fielding (hoping for a tiebreaker on that one, I admit) It really depends on how much they will play in my mind. If they play a lot (say 350 ABs) I'd go with Estes. If it is a smaller dose (200 ABs) Reyes. The big thing against Reyes for me is the age. I see a lot of guys once they hit 36, while their skills are already slowly eroding, get on the bullet train of erosion. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

07-08-2010, 04:33 PM	#2
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	I'd say Reyes probably should get the nod, assuming the player will hit like 6th or 7th. The only advantage Estes has is the ability to get on base. So if you want to have Estes hit 2nd, maybe I'd keep him (though I'm not really condoning that). But otherwise keep the guy that could drive in more runs.

07-08-2010, 04:55 PM	#3
milkman41 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 94	If I choose Reyes, I'll probably bat him 3rd, or maybe 6th/7th, and if I choose Estes, I'll probably bat him 5th or 6th, maybe 2nd. But both will play mostly versus lefties, with about 1/3 of the at-bats against righties.

07-08-2010, 06:15 PM	#8
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	If these guys will primarily play against lefties, do either of them have a noticeable split? Basically, what are their ratings against LHP? Has Estes been losing contact lately? A 10/20 seems to be getting dangerously low. Have either of these guys been losing any ratings over the past couple of years? Also, depending upon your league's rules, just because Estes has minor league options remaining doesn't mean that he'll accept a demotion to the minors (again, unless you disabled that ability).

07-09-2010, 12:01 AM	#10
dmarco82 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 46	How about shopping both players and seeing which one generates the better offers. You can see which one has more interest in your league, which may help sway your decision one way or another.