Most Important Statistics?

[Bubba Hotep]

I've been playing around with trying to build different types of teams (a Moneyball OBP team, a Seattle Mariners-style all-defense team, etc.) What do folks see as the most important stats to look at when building a team? I don't mean ratings...I mean what actual statistical indicators do people look for when signing free agents, making trades, etc.? Is it OBP? Do you take defensive stats like ZR as important factors? Is WHIP more important that ERA?

I'm a big stats person and actually look at previous production over player ratings when building a team. I tend to end up with starting pitchers with ratings in the 30s-40s who, for whatever reason, consistently post sub-4.00 ERAs, etc. Currently, I'm running the Royals and have brought on Kevin Correia, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jon Garland on the cheap because they have been putting up good stats every year in the league despite middle-of-the-road ratings. Some guys just tend to produce year in and year out regardless of their overall ratings in OOTP.

Any thoughts on statistical prediction/analysis methods would be great. Thanks!

[StyxNCa]

It depends on what type of team you want.

[Bubba Hotep]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

It depends on what type of team you want.

Clearly.

Let's say you're trying to build a championship-caliber offense or pitching staff without spending big on "name" free agents with high ratings. What stats would you value? I guess the question is really "what stats are undervalued in OOTP?"

[TribeFanInNC]

I try to build teams to suit my parks, if an exploitable advantage exists. For instance, one of my online league teams has a pitchers park that favors gap hitters. So I draft for doubles production and good defense where possible. Another league I used to be in had a team that played in a Coors-esque park and had built-in hitting development boosts, so I drafted hitting talent and signed big name free agent pitching talent to supplement.

I, like you, spend a lot of looking at the stats even when playing with ratings. When I started playing stats only (hidden ratings), I didn't find much difference because I was mostly doing the same evaluations. It just took longer.

[Bubba Hotep]

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

I try to build teams to suit my parks, if an exploitable advantage exists. For instance, one of my online league teams has a pitchers park that favors gap hitters. So I draft for doubles production and good defense where possible. Another league I used to be in had a team that played in a Coors-esque park and had built-in hitting development boosts, so I drafted hitting talent and signed big name free agent pitching talent to supplement.

I, like you, spend a lot of looking at the stats even when playing with ratings. When I started playing stats only (hidden ratings), I didn't find much difference because I was mostly doing the same evaluations. It just took longer.

Agreed on the park factors. I've really been trying to build around strong defense up the middle, pitchers with low WHIPS and hitters with high OBP/speed lately. In pitchers' parks, these kinds of teams can be great.

Incidentally, I'm also a Tribe fan (of 15 years or so) and grew up in Monroe, NC...so I couldn't help but notice your username. Small world.

[Daern]

I like to build my pitching staff around groundball pitchers--as extreme as possible--with low walk totals. Then I build around infield defense--ZR, mostly.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Daern

I like to build my pitching staff around groundball pitchers--as extreme as possible--with low walk totals. Then I build around infield defense--ZR, mostly.

Same. Plus, I want a great CF (and preferably at least one good corner OF) for when balls do get in the air. OBP/speed on the offense. I've gotten used to being near the bottom in HRs.


I think one year in the AL I was 12th in BA, 2nd in OBP, and first in steals. Plus last in HRs.

[Afino]

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

built-in hitting development boosts

I felt the need to pick this out.

Someone brought this up not too long ago with players being traded in my online league. He swore that it seemed like players developed based on park factors, and sudden talent changes when someone went to a new team were a result of that.

Is that actually true?

[Afino]

Originally Posted by Left-handed Badger

Same. Plus, I want a great CF (and preferably at least one good corner OF) for when balls do get in the air. OBP/speed on the offense. I've gotten used to being near the bottom in HRs.


I think one year in the AL I was 12th in BA, 2nd in OBP, and first in steals. Plus last in HRs.

Let me guess, your team didn't have much success?

One thing is true with low power teams - OOTP will hate you.

In its player evaluations, OOTP HIGHLY favors power, more so than anything else, even defense and speed. You can forget about seeing a 8/8/1/8/8 player on a top players/prospects lists, but you'll definitely find that 5/5/9/5/5 guy on there. Even though the 8/8/1/8/8 is clearly a better player and more valuable, OOTP will rate Player B higher. It's frustrating, but I got used to it.

[Daern]

Afino: Seriously? Because my teams are NEVER in the top half for power numbers, and I am always near the top of the league. And my league MVP hit 11 home runs last year--in a modern-day MLB environment--and with his 20/100 power he was the #1 prospect a year ago.

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by Afino

I felt the need to pick this out.

Someone brought this up not too long ago with players being traded in my online league. He swore that it seemed like players developed based on park factors, and sudden talent changes when someone went to a new team were a result of that.

Is that actually true?

Not to my knowledge.

In my case, every team in this fictional league had specific bonuses. Mine happened to be enhanced hitting dev and a cheap hitting coach. The commish randomly gave these bonuses manually I believe. They were not from the park factor.

[Afino]

Originally Posted by Daern

Afino: Seriously? Because my teams are NEVER in the top half for power numbers, and I am always near the top of the league. And my league MVP hit 11 home runs last year--in a modern-day MLB environment--and with his 20/100 power he was the #1 prospect a year ago.

Out of the top 20 batters in my league, only 3 has below a 7/10 power. And one of them is a 5 and another a 6.

Top prospects: you have to go down to #86 to find a Power potential below 5.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Afino

Let me guess, your team didn't have much success?

One thing is true with low power teams - OOTP will hate you.

In its player evaluations, OOTP HIGHLY favors power, more so than anything else, even defense and speed. You can forget about seeing a 8/8/1/8/8 player on a top players/prospects lists, but you'll definitely find that 5/5/9/5/5 guy on there. Even though the 8/8/1/8/8 is clearly a better player and more valuable, OOTP will rate Player B higher. It's frustrating, but I got used to it.

Nope, the one team I was thinking of in particular made the wildcard. After a shaky April, when middle relievers on the team refused to get an out until any and all inherited runners scored. (especially for some reason in relief of my #2 starter). I did have a good Big 3 in the rotation who all finished TOp 10 in ERA. The first and 3rd top 5, and the 2nd probably would have if not for the disastrous relief pitching behind him in April. My #4 guy pitched over his head, and was pitcher of the month in April, top 10 in ERA still in May. And had a pretty good season, though he wore out in 2nd half a bit.

But, I will say for AI teams I agree with you. I had a created 3B, who was basically a slap hitting super speedster. Not a great glove but had great, great range. Dude, won ROY, led league in triples, steals (steals by a wide margin of 68-48) hit in the .280s with .350-something oBP. But since he hit 5 HRs only. The AI for the team decided to shop for a 3B. WHo was .220 power guy. And HRs was the only thing he had over the speedster. He was a worse fielder and had terrible range. His OBP was about the same as my created 3B's BA. The team went from division cellar to wildcard in my guy's rookie of the year win to 2nd worst in the league (only 2nd because Tampa Bay decided to lose 110, so that was hard to beat). They replaced him in the lineup with the CF who had a 26 HR, 28 SB season on a .214 BA and .288 OBP.

So, yes the AI is obsessed with power. But, no, it doesnt always translate into more wins

Note: The only major change to the team was to replace my 3B, so it was mostly the reason, though their pitching did bloat up a little from the previous year, but not enough to warrant such a drop. As it only had I think an increase of about .25 in team ERA, significant, but not enough to turn a 96 win team to a 66 win by itself, I wouldnt think. A drop off of 70 points in OBP from the leadoff spot had to have had at least as much responsibility.

ANyhow, the one time I really tried for a power lineup, I had a season where I hit into 240+ DPs.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Afino

Out of the top 20 batters in my league, only 3 has below a 7/10 power. And one of them is a 5 and another a 6.

Top prospects: you have to go down to #86 to find a Power potential below 5.

The former does surprise me a bit. Especially considering I recently had a guy who nearly hit .400 in my league (weak Sept. finished him off with .384 for the season.) Who had 1 HR for the season, and hit that one on Sept. 20. And the guy career HR high is 2 (done twice). And he steals 40-50 a year. Though, in his 5 seasons this was his 4th team and this was the first time he wasnt traded at the deadline since his 2nd year of the 5.


For the latter, that doesnt surprise me much, as the only non-HR hitters I see on the prospect list are super excessive speed guys. But, I dont get surprised at people having trouble developing certain type players. If a pitcher in my system makes the TOP 10 prospects in my organization. It is a sure bet he will stagnate in development until I use him for trade bait. Which would surprise many here, probably. I've learned to trade these guys and get pitchers who are ready for the bigs and cant find a spot on their teams roster. And I seem to have great success with those types. *maybe it is how we run our teams*

[Bubba Hotep]

For these discussions, are you guys playing with scouting on or off? I find that this seems to greatly impact how teams evaluate players and needs. As for which is more valuable, I come back to the argument for park factors. If you're trying to build a power-hitting monster in, say, San Diego, you're probably going to struggle a bit due to their expansive park.

I definitely agree with the need for impact defenders up the middle. Do you guys see defense on the corners as hvaing much impact? How about catchers? Many of my league's top-rated catchers are just average defenders. Outside of SS, 2B, CF, does defense really matter?

[Malleus Dei]

I build teams the Earl Weaver way: high OBP, high SLG, great starting pitching, platoons to fill any gaping holes. I win a lot of games and a lot of league championships.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

I build teams the Earl Weaver way: high OBP, high SLG, great starting pitching, platoons to fill any gaping holes. I win a lot of games and a lot of league championships.

and good defense? That was the Earl Waever way too.


Sorry Malleus I had to needle you a bit. I know how you feel about the Mark Belangers. No malice intended.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Bubba Hotep

For these discussions, are you guys playing with scouting on or off? I find that this seems to greatly impact how teams evaluate players and needs. As for which is more valuable, I come back to the argument for park factors. If you're trying to build a power-hitting monster in, say, San Diego, you're probably going to struggle a bit due to their expansive park.

I definitely agree with the need for impact defenders up the middle. Do you guys see defense on the corners as hvaing much impact? How about catchers? Many of my league's top-rated catchers are just average defenders. Outside of SS, 2B, CF, does defense really matter?

Hmm, I like to have a good defensive 3B. OF corners, it depends with a good CF you can get away with one bad corner out there. But, not 2, unless you dont mind getting doubled to death. 1B? It doesnt matter much, though whenever I have to have a fill in for a few innings, I do seem to start giving up about one hit down the 1B line an inning (probably not that bad just seems that way). C? Surprisingly, aside from arm strength seems to have almost no impact on defense. As long as they are rated there of course.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by Left-handed Badger

and good defense? That was the Earl Waever way too.

Defense has never been as important in OOTP as it is in real baseball. That's changed a bit in this last version, but I've had winning teams where none of my players had even heard of a Gold Glove. Mind you, I like a good-fielding team, but when you can't get good hitters who can field well then you do what you can.

One of my WS-winning teams had the worst defense in its league, but it also led the league in SLG and OBP. That team used to win a lot of games, but it won really ugly.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

Defense has never been as important in OOTP as it is in real baseball. That's changed a bit in this last version, but I've had winning teams where none of my players had even heard of a Gold Glove. Mind you, I like a good-fielding team, but when you can't get good hitters who can field well then you do what you can.

One of my WS-winning teams had the worst defense in its league, but it also led the league in SLG and OBP. That team used to win a lot of games, but it won really ugly.

Fair enough. (though I have found strangely defense was more important than in real life in past version, or at least defensive range, but different ways to say potato and all that**)

** I actually like the game more finding out people have won with varying strategies.