Does player potential ratings increase over time?

[SiN8]

I'm a Football Manager player who recently discovered the treasure that's OOTP. However, I'm a bit confused about how potential in this game works. Btw, I'm playing without scouting so I should be looking at their true values.

In my first draft class, I noticed that there were only a small handful of batters that could make the ML starting lineup. After the first 20 picks or so, there's only 1 star players left. I was worried that the talent would drastically decrease over time. However, I check back after a couple of years and now notice that the potential of these players have increased.

How can potential increase? I'm used to the FM model where a newgen gets created with a static potential.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Potential is not static. If a players base potential ratings increase then the Overall/Potential increases.
A player’s contact/gap/power/eye/k's potential rating can increase or decrease. This includes pitching. OOTPX this was heavily tied to injuries as change from random increases and decreases that customers had coronaries over. I think OOTPXI is moving back towards random because of the devastating nature of injuries on talent and potential. The game needs this because the individuals with talent in baseball do change over the course of time and those changes are not always attributable to singular events.
I am certain there is quite a bit more to the explanation. This is the extent of my understanding.

[SamuraiProgrammer]

I think there may also be a component in ratings changes due to the scouting situation.

If you get a different scout, he may have a different opinion. This may manifest in different ratings.

Also, there may be some accuracy to be gained by increasing your scouting budget.

If I am wrong, someone please elaborate.

[SiN8]

I turned off scouting so the OSA ratings should be the true values. However, I still don't understand the point of a dynamic potential. Doesn't that make the whole point of potential worthless?

In fact, what's the point of hiring a good scout? I can just randomly select these 1 star potential draftees in hopes that their potential increases in the future.

[KBLover]

Originally Posted by SiN8

I turned off scouting so the OSA ratings should be the true values. However, I still don't understand the point of a dynamic potential. Doesn't that make the whole point of potential worthless?

Potential = Max ability of the player AT THAT POINT.

If the player figures something out, or works hard and improves himself, or breaks his arm and is never the same again - those things would change his potential. His expected ceiling could change, which in this game is what potential represents.

So, no, having it change wouldn't make it worthless. Having it change means you just have to keep some check on your guys and watch them develop.

Originally Posted by SiN8

In fact, what's the point of hiring a good scout? I can just randomly select these 1 star potential draftees in hopes that their potential increases in the future.

Sure - if you want to try getting 20-30 POT player up to major league ability

Granted, POT isn't always the only thing you should go by. I have some "low potential" players that can contribute (and they are cheap - go Moneyball me! LOL) however, chances are a 60 POT player and a 30 POT player, especially at the same position (if you have potential by position enabled), the 60 POT guy will have better upside somewhere.

Also, good scouts give you a more accurate read on the player. You won't hold on to a 65 POT guy only to find out, years later, that your scout was way wrong and he's a 30 POT guy with no future. Likewise, you don't want to trade a 40 POT guy, thinking he's a fringe guy you can replace, and he's really a 70 POT monster in the making because your scout was that wrong.

[SiN8]

Originally Posted by KBLover

Potential = Max ability of the player AT THAT POINT.

I respectfully disagree with this. Ability of a player AT THAT TIME = current ratings. Potential should be the maximum a player can ever hope to achieve in his lifetime if everything falls into place.

Originally Posted by KBLover

Sure - if you want to try getting 20-30 POT player up to major league ability

In each draft class, there are only around 5 to 10 batters that have 1+ star potential ratings. After the first 20 picks or so, all you are left with are 1/2 or 1 star potential players. This is without turning on the scouting system. So by my second round pick, I'm left without any guidance on which of these players will get a potential increase in the future. Just randomly picking players at that point.

[KBLover]

Originally Posted by SiN8

I respectfully disagree with this. Ability of a player AT THAT TIME = current ratings. Potential should be the maximum a player can ever hope to achieve in his lifetime if everything falls into place.

I know potential isn't current ability. That's why I said it was max ability. It's not a lifetime setting - and I'm glad it's not since players change over their baseball lifetimes in real life - both in actual performance (current ability) and projected (potential) levels.

Suppose a guy his high potential for hitting doubles because of his speed. Let's say he fouls a ball off his ankle, breaks it, needs surgery to fix it. He comes back, but he's never as fast as he was before - is his potential for doubles still the same? Why would a scout still say he has 80 of 80 grade for doubles potential when he's obviously no where near as fast?

Let's say this was a young hitter who could fly, but hasn't learned to stop swinging for the fences and just shoot the gaps (his gap actual is, say, 30 and his potential is 80). With that speed, he could be good for 50-60 doubles every year once he figures it out.

Now, he could still stroke the ball to the gaps and he's not slow by any means, but he's not that blazing fast baserunner anymore (due to the ankle injury) now that improved stroke would only get him, say, 40 doubles. His potential drops from 80 to 70.

Perhaps the way he improves his stroke is not so much the swing, but pitch selection. That pitch selection improves how many pitches he takes per PA - this could be a sign that more walks are in the future. His Eye potential might go up from 40 to 50 as scouts think experience will turn more of those 3-1 counts into walks instead of being overanxious on 3-2 or chasing ball four too much on 3-1. In other words, experience will teach him to not swing all the time in hitter's counts and the fact he's working more of them will improve his shots at walking in the future once he gets that experience.

Potential should change as the player learns the game and grows, or gets older and declines. Age and injuries can lower a player's ceiling as physical gifts erode or are lost. Experience and physical maturity can make what the player does right turn into even more results, increasing his projections.

Originally Posted by SiN8

In each draft class, there are only around 5 to 10 batters that have 1+ star potential ratings. After the first 20 picks or so, all you are left with are 1/2 or 1 star potential players. This is without turning on the scouting system. So by my second round pick, I'm left without any guidance on which of these players will get a potential increase in the future. Just randomly picking players at that point.

I have more players in my league drafts than about 10 that are more than what would be 1 star (I use 20-80). Heck, the number of relievers alone that are potential monsters is more than that in my league. So I can't say I'm seeing the same thing in terms of level of talent coming into my drafts (all settings are at default)

As far as potential increasing/decreasing - scouts won't tell you that on draft day. In those situations, I choose who has potentials that could make him into something useful even if they don't go up. In my league, there's guys with solid contact but maybe nothing else or pitchers with good pitches and stuff potential, but a low GB rate and lower control. Maybe if he improves his GB rate, he'll get more movement (i.e. HR prevention). Things like that help me pick out guys to take chances on so it's less random picking in the sense I'm taking guys at least with something to go on. Now if everyone is just 3/3/3 or something - it does get hard.

[SiN8]

Originally Posted by KBLover

I know potential isn't current ability. That's why I said it was max ability. It's not a lifetime setting - and I'm glad it's not since players change over their baseball lifetimes in real life - both in actual performance (current ability) and projected (potential) levels.

I guess that's a different perspective on potential. To me, your scenario indicates a player who increases his current ratings over time as he learns to adjust his swing. However, he would have had always a high potential to begin with. This differentiates him from low potential players who never adjust.

Originally Posted by KBLover

I have more players in my league drafts than about 10 that are more than what would be 1 star (I use 20-80). Heck, the number of relievers alone that are potential monsters is more than that in my league. So I can't say I'm seeing the same thing in terms of level of talent coming into my drafts (all settings are at default)

Sorry, I meant to say batters. For reasons I don't understand, relievers start off with high potential while batter's don't. I'm just doing my 2016 draft and there are a total of TWO!! batters who have more than 1 star. Beyond that is a bunch of 1 star players who make me wonder why I hired a legendary amateur scout.

[KBLover]

Originally Posted by SiN8

I guess that's a different perspective on potential. To me, your scenario indicates a player who increases his current ratings over time as he learns to adjust his swing. However, he would have had always a high potential to begin with. This differentiates him from low potential players who never adjust.

I think that's the thing I don't like from the fixed potential view - I know immediately who can adjust and who can't, even before I put him on a minor league field. Heck, I know the instant the pool is announced. There's no taking project players and trying to turn them into something more. I can draft with too much confidence, knowing that ultra raw kid WILL become at least an average major leaguer because his potential is 55, instead of worrying if the game is going to be too much for him (will batting .140 in A-ball discourage him - making the game be too big a mountain to climb and causing him to fall into bad habits or just never adjust for years..or at all?)

Originally Posted by SiN8

Sorry, I meant to say batters. For reasons I don't understand, relievers start off with high potential while batter's don't. I'm just doing my 2016 draft and there are a total of TWO!! batters who have more than 1 star. Beyond that is a bunch of 1 star players who make me wonder why I hired a legendary amateur scout.

Yeah, batters - I hear you. If there's one pet peeve I've always had with OOTP drafts, it's that it makes so many useless players and this time it seems most of those scrubs are hitters. Hitters go FAST in my drafts - and I guess for good reason. Least the AI seems to understand that.

My game isn't at it's draft yet so I'm going to try something to see if I can't adjust this - without destroying pitchers - though it seems the relievers can afford to be taken down a notch.

[SiN8]

Originally Posted by KBLover

I think that's the thing I don't like from the fixed potential view - I know immediately who can adjust and who can't, even before I put him on a minor league field. Heck, I know the instant the pool is announced. There's no taking project players and trying to turn them into something more. I can draft with too much confidence, knowing that ultra raw kid WILL become at least an average major leaguer because his potential is 55, instead of worrying if the game is going to be too much for him (will batting .140 in A-ball discourage him - making the game be too big a mountain to climb and causing him to fall into bad habits or just never adjust for years..or at all?)

I agree with you here that there's no fun if the fixed potential is always known. However, the scouting system is supposed to provide that bit of unknown into the game. In Football Manager, users weren't allowed to see the "real" potential unless they download a third party tool. Instead, you had to rely on the recommendation of your imperfect scouts who could be recommending the Brien Taylor of the world while overlooking the Albert Pujols.

[KBLover]

Originally Posted by SiN8

I agree with you here that there's no fun if the fixed potential is always known. However, the scouting system is supposed to provide that bit of unknown into the game. In Football Manager, users weren't allowed to see the "real" potential unless they download a third party tool. Instead, you had to rely on the recommendation of your imperfect scouts who could be recommending the Brien Taylor of the world while overlooking the Albert Pujols.

I guess I disagree that a player's maximum ever potential ability he will ever have as a ballplayer is ever 100% known to anyone, even the player himself. I see two points of unknown - how good this player will ever be and the unknown from the scout's eyes on that player.

With potential fixed - it means someone will be able to see it and know, for certain, how good a player will ever possibly be with 100% certainty. I don't see that as being accurate, though maybe I'm wrong. Even with scouting on, not all scouts will get it wrong.

I believe a scout could project "potential all-star" but they don't know exactly out of the draft what someone will ever be capable off - and there's no fixed number somewhere that's 100% accurate. Computer games have to have something, but that something doesn't have to be fixed. I think that's what OOTP is simulating - the fact a scout can accurate label what they see based on this point and have an opinion based on what they see now of his future, but no one has a clear vision of what will happen to a kid 10 years from now.

Otherwise, scouts who are right (and/or teams who spend enough scouting money) would get it right all the time, both on current view, current opinion of his potential and the best he can ever possibly be no matter how far in the future because the number if fixed it just becomes a matter of getting that number displayed to you.