A Complete Crap Shoot

[Dactyl]

I have come to the conclusion that the amateur draft is a complete crap shoot, no matter how good your scout, how much money you put into drafting, and how much you pay attention to the player's amateur record, etc. I tracked the fates of my first six draft picks for four years of the draft. At the time I had a scout who was Legendary on all four categories. I was putting $10 million a year into scouting. Of those twenty-four players, two made the majors and are first-class contributors. As you can guess, they're both relievers. For some reason, it's easy to find first-class relievers in the draft. One position player made the majors as a fifth outfielder for two years, then dropped out of sight. The rest have either been released or are languishing in the minors. A team that had that kind of record in the real-life majors would be considered a real underachiever. I am sure I could do just as well using the auto-draft feature for the whole draft, since I auto draft from the seventh round on anyway and an occasional player bubbles up to the majors.

I'm not saying that every first-round draft choice should make it to the majors or anything like that, but I do believe that this aspect of the game doesn't even come close to tracking real world performance.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I have come to the conclusion that the amateur draft is a complete crap shoot, no matter how good your scout, how much money you put into drafting, and how much you pay attention to the player's amateur record, etc. I tracked the fates of my first six draft picks for four years of the draft. At the time I had a scout who was Legendary on all four categories. I was putting $10 million a year into scouting. Of those twenty-four players, two made the majors and are first-class contributors. As you can guess, they're both relievers. For some reason, it's easy to find first-class relievers in the draft. One position player made the majors as a fifth outfielder for two years, then dropped out of sight. The rest have either been released or are languishing in the minors. A team that had that kind of record in the real-life majors would be considered a real underachiever. I am sure I could do just as well using the auto-draft feature for the whole draft, since I auto draft from the seventh round on anyway and an occasional player bubbles up to the majors.

I'm not saying that every first-round draft choice should make it to the majors or anything like that, but I do believe that this aspect of the game doesn't even come close to tracking real world performance.

Check out real life draft picks from history and see how they fared. In reality the draft is a crap shoot in baseball. I think they game mirrors it quite well.

I haven't had the same problems you're having. At least half of my first to third round picks have had productive, if not great, careers though not necessarily with my team. I've also had some that completely tanked.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I have come to the conclusion that the amateur draft is a complete crap shoot, no matter how good your scout, how much money you put into drafting, and how much you pay attention to the player's amateur record, etc.

I totally agree. I would also say that in that sense the game models reality 100%.

Once you get past, say, the first 5-10 picks in the real MLB amateur draft, no one really has any idea how guys are going to pan out.

[Dactyl]

I'm afraid that I will have to respectfully disagree. Here is the history of the first six rounds of the amateur draft for the Atlanta Braves, 2000-2005. In 2000, Adam Wainwright was the first pick. He's now a stud starter for the Cardinals. Kelly Johnson was a first round pick. He played second for the Braves and is now in the starting lineup for Arizona. Scott Thorman, Blaine Boyer, and Zach Miner were all picked in the top six rounds. They've been marginal major-leaguers. In 2001, three of those selected in the top six rounds have become marginal major-leaguers. In 2002, Jeff Francouer was their first pick. Brian McCann was chosen in the second round. Dan Meyer was another first round pick, another marginal major-leaguer. In 2003, Saltalamacchia was a first-round pick. He's been marginal so far, as has Jo-Jo Reyes, the second round pick. 2004 was pretty much a bust. Clint Sammons was drafted in the sixth round. He's only tasted the majors. In 2005, Joey Devine was the first pick. His career has been derailed by injury. Yunel Escobar was the second round pick. He's a solid major-league shortstop. Jordan Schafer was the third round pick. The jury is still out on him. That's the kind of performance I would expect from an organization with a first-class scout.

[Afino]

You can always make it less of a crapshoot by adjusting the Player Talent Randomness number to 1.

[RchW]

Yep. I use 15 but the idea is the same.

[Afino]

I mean, that's all you can do.

I don't understand why you'd want a game where if you had the #1 pick, you're 100% guaranteed a star player that WILL pan out 100% of the time.

Yes, it's frustrating when they don't, especially with high picks. But taking a step back and looking at real life drafting can work wonders. Now, I also understand that in OOTP, you can't physically see people play, and that makes things worse. So that's why you can lower the talent randomness to make up for it.

I personally play at 75, and it's good enough for me.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I'm afraid that I will have to respectfully disagree. Here is the history of the first six rounds of the amateur draft for the Atlanta Braves, 2000-2005. In 2000, Adam Wainwright was the first pick. He's now a stud starter for the Cardinals. Kelly Johnson was a first round pick. He played second for the Braves and is now in the starting lineup for Arizona. Scott Thorman, Blaine Boyer, and Zach Miner were all picked in the top six rounds. They've been marginal major-leaguers. In 2001, three of those selected in the top six rounds have become marginal major-leaguers. In 2002, Jeff Francouer was their first pick. Brian McCann was chosen in the second round. Dan Meyer was another first round pick, another marginal major-leaguer. In 2003, Saltalamacchia was a first-round pick. He's been marginal so far, as has Jo-Jo Reyes, the second round pick. 2004 was pretty much a bust. Clint Sammons was drafted in the sixth round. He's only tasted the majors. In 2005, Joey Devine was the first pick. His career has been derailed by injury. Yunel Escobar was the second round pick. He's a solid major-league shortstop. Jordan Schafer was the third round pick. The jury is still out on him. That's the kind of performance I would expect from an organization with a first-class scout.

Some teams have a streak of a number of years were they get lucky. Look through the history of the draft for MLB at baseball reference and you will see those are the exception, not the rule.

The other aspect is that not all draft classes are created equal. The best in one class could very well be middle of the pack in another.

I don't know how old your league is but I have the best scout, legendary across the board like yours (he was first person I signed when I created the league) and in 11 seasons has found 2 first round picks who became stars. We have had at least 2 first round picks every year.

Outside of those 2 all but 3 have become average-good players. The other three are still bouncing between the minors and majors with other teams. The players from my last draft, too soon to tell.

All in all it seems pretty reasonable to me. Some years you'll hit it big, others will amount to nothing.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

All in all it seems pretty reasonable to me. Some years you'll hit it big, others will amount to nothing.

Yep. Plus there's the issue of actually signing the picks.

Real major league teams have drafts, for various reasons, that produce no major leaguers who end up putting in something other than a fringe career.

There is a reason why there are so many levels of minors feeding to majors. Teams have to sift through hundreds of players to find a few who are good enough for the Majors. As I wrote before, if you look at a typical minor league team, there may be two guys on the whole squad that the organization considers actual major league prospects. The rest of the guys are filler.

The fact that the amateur draft is a crapshoot is a credit to OOTP, not a negative. I like the fact that when I check my "Top Prospects" list, a guy who was drafted in the 19th round three years ago and to whom I never gave a second thought has risen above the multitudes to rise to the level of "prospect" with a shot of actually making it to the big club.

I like the fact that this season two guys made my team out of Spring Training after toiling for the past five years at all of the different levels of the minors.

That's reality. That's why I love the game.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

Yep. Plus there's the issue of actually signing the picks.

Real major league teams have drafts, for various reasons, that produce no major leaguers who end up putting in something other than a fringe career.

There is a reason why there are so many levels of minors feeding to majors. Teams have to sift through hundreds of players to find a few who are good enough for the Majors. As I wrote before, if you look at a typical minor league team, there may be two guys on the whole squad that the organization considers actual major league prospects. The rest of the guys are filler.

The fact that the amateur draft is a crapshoot is a credit to OOTP, not a negative. I like the fact that when I check my "Top Prospects" list, a guy who was drafted in the 19th round three years ago and to whom I never gave a second thought has risen above the multitudes to rise to the level of "prospect" with a shot of actually making it to the big club.

I like the fact that this season two guys made my team out of Spring Training after toiling for the past five years at all of the different levels of the minors.

That's reality. That's why I love the game.

Yes. I've had a few low round draft picks, who I drafted just because I had to but had no feeling they would ever make the bigs, come up on the prospect list a few years later. Granted they were journeymen in the bigs but considering I never saw them getting above AA ball that's not bad.

[Renner]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I'm afraid that I will have to respectfully disagree. Here is the history of the first six rounds of the amateur draft for the Atlanta Braves, 2000-2005. In 2000, Adam Wainwright was the first pick. He's now a stud starter for the Cardinals. Kelly Johnson was a first round pick. He played second for the Braves and is now in the starting lineup for Arizona. Scott Thorman, Blaine Boyer, and Zach Miner were all picked in the top six rounds. They've been marginal major-leaguers. In 2001, three of those selected in the top six rounds have become marginal major-leaguers. In 2002, Jeff Francouer was their first pick. Brian McCann was chosen in the second round. Dan Meyer was another first round pick, another marginal major-leaguer. In 2003, Saltalamacchia was a first-round pick. He's been marginal so far, as has Jo-Jo Reyes, the second round pick. 2004 was pretty much a bust. Clint Sammons was drafted in the sixth round. He's only tasted the majors. In 2005, Joey Devine was the first pick. His career has been derailed by injury. Yunel Escobar was the second round pick. He's a solid major-league shortstop. Jordan Schafer was the third round pick. The jury is still out on him. That's the kind of performance I would expect from an organization with a first-class scout.

Look at the Padres...
Of all the players they have drafted, only 4 1st Round picks have had more than one game played in majors (and are currently playing)...
Cesar Carillo - 2005 - 3 games played
Cesar Ramos - 2005 - 14 games played
Tim Stauffer - 2003
Derek Lee - 1993

Players taken in the 1st round by the Padres since 1993 not active (but played in the Majors):
Matt Antonelli
Khalil Greene
Mike Bynum
Sean Burroughs
Kevin Nicholson
Ben Davis
Dustin Hermanson

That's 17 years of drafts...maybe you're the Pads of your universe ?

[EKomrska15]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I have come to the conclusion that the amateur draft is a complete crap shoot, no matter how good your scout, how much money you put into drafting, and how much you pay attention to the player's amateur record, etc. I tracked the fates of my first six draft picks for four years of the draft. At the time I had a scout who was Legendary on all four categories. I was putting $10 million a year into scouting. Of those twenty-four players, two made the majors and are first-class contributors. As you can guess, they're both relievers. For some reason, it's easy to find first-class relievers in the draft. One position player made the majors as a fifth outfielder for two years, then dropped out of sight. The rest have either been released or are languishing in the minors. A team that had that kind of record in the real-life majors would be considered a real underachiever. I am sure I could do just as well using the auto-draft feature for the whole draft, since I auto draft from the seventh round on anyway and an occasional player bubbles up to the majors.

I'm not saying that every first-round draft choice should make it to the majors or anything like that, but I do believe that this aspect of the game doesn't even come close to tracking real world performance.

I would say this is right on par with major league baseball. However, I do want to ask one question. What kind of players are you drafting i.e. College or High School kids?

[actionjackson]

Drafting is really, really hard IRL. Why should it not be that way in OOTP? I guarantee you if it was easy, you'd get pretty bored with the game pretty quickly and that doesn't exactly help sales.

[Left-handed Badger]

Cut the scout. And go for a good but not great scout. for some reason I do better that way.

[DrSatan]

Try promoting based on ratings instead of stats. I have talent randomness set to 100, and rarely have any busts. When player are in the minors their stats don't mean shiat. I never even look at them. I just wait for their ratings to reach a certain point, and then promote. Also, in OOTP 25 seems to be the age where prospects stop developing in the minors. If a guy turns or is close to 25 and isn't where you want him, either release him or trade him.

[NCBeachBum]

Just take a good look at the Pirates drafts for the last ten years or so. They haven't produced anything other than Jason Bay (off the top of my head, anyway), and they've been picking in the upper five a good bit of the time.

[TonyJ]

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

Just take a good look at the Pirates drafts for the last ten years or so. They haven't produced anything other than Jason Bay (off the top of my head, anyway), and they've been picking in the upper five a good bit of the time.

Bay was drafted by the Expos

What I look for is the difference between my scout's opinion and the league scouting service. If the difference is large chances are the player is going to flame out. If it is close you have a pretty good idea what you are getting. Another clue is bonus demand. If they want a lot of money they usually turn out, if they only want the bonus chances are your scout is wrong. But, yeah, it's hard and it should be.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

I'm afraid that I will have to respectfully disagree...

From the Wikipedia article on the MLB amateur draft:

While most NBA and NFL draftees will eventually reach their respective leagues, the vast majority of players selected in the First-Year Player Draft will never play in a single MLB game, including many first-rounders. For example, only 31 of 53 first-round draft picks in the 1997 draft eventually made a big-league appearance, and only 13 of those 30 appeared in more than 100 games as of 2009. In 1997's sixth round, only five of the 30 players selected eventually made a big league appearance, and only two of those five (Tim Hudson and Matt Wise) played more than 40 innings in the majors. Further illustrating the unpredictability of the draft's middle and later rounds, none of the 30 players selected in the 18th round would ever reach the major leagues, but the 19th round eventually produced an all-star and World Series MVP, David Eckstein.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

OOTP 25 seems to be the age where prospects stop developing in the minors. If a guy turns or is close to 25 and isn't where you want him, either release him or trade him.

My rule of thumb is if the guy can't make to AAA by the time he's 25 he's gone one way or another.

That's pretty close to the way it is real life.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

From the Wikipedia article on the MLB amateur draft:

Thankyou LGO for once again bringing the historical data.

Take a look back at any season preferably from the original draft in 1965 through 1987, 1988ish so that the draftees have played a full career by now. It's uncanny. The best team at drafting in the 1st round over the years if we go by WAR (which is probably the best overall player measurement we have at the moment) is the Milwaukee Brewers. Sure you've got HoFers like Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Gary Sheffield, very good players like Darrell Porter and B.J. Surhoff and serviceable guys like Alex Fernandez, Gorman Thomas, Geoff Jenkins and Dan Plesac as well as current stars like Ben Sheets, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but 20 of their 48 picks never set foot on a big league diamond. Seven of those were picked in the last 5 drafts, so we won't include them in the DNP in MLB list. That's still 27% of their first rounders never playing in the big leagues, not to mention some of the lightweights that did like Dale Sveum, Anthony Williamson, Tommy Bianco, Bill Bordley, Todd Dunn, Dave Krynzel, Butch Edge, Kyle Peterson, Dan Thomas and Kelly Wunsch. It is a very inexact science.

Take a look at the 1st round draft records of teams like the Giants, the Tigers, and the Cubs, all of whom have been around for every ammy draft. Ugh, not pretty at all. Kerry Wood, Jon Garland and Mark Prior rank 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in the WAR rankings of 1st round Cub draftees. There's only one possible HoFer that I see on their list and it'll be a cold day in Hell before he sees the hallowed Hall, thanks to his performance on the Hill and positive PED test mere months later...Period *points finger angrily* Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are 4th and 6th on the Giants 1st rounders list, while Justin Verlander is 4th and Rick Porcello is already 9th on the Tigers list. Ugh.

...And that's just the 1st round.