Stolen Bases

evanbarth · 05-14-2010, 10:29 AM

I felt in OOTP 9 that stolen bases were out of wack -- that runners were getting caught way too often with default settings. I felt it was much better in 10. I just converted over to 11 and switched the settings to the default MLB settings. In my first game, my 93 speed, 89 SB guy was caught twice. The pitcher had a "7" hold rating (1-100 scale) but the catcher had a 56 arm. Clearly, the sample size is incredibly small -- just wanted to know if anyone had any insight into stolen bases with the default ratings and if they needed to be tweaked any.

dagmar · 05-14-2010, 10:40 AM

Raise the "stolen base success %" some in the league totals modifier. Or lower, in your case.

In my league, the caught stealing % are around 28% to 30%. It was around 33% in one league and 31% in the other before I fiddled with the stolen base success % modifier.

RchW · 05-14-2010, 03:38 PM

You need a season or two of data to make a useful decision. Stolen bases can be tricky because there are so many factors involved. Talent and ratings distribution throughout the league for pitchers catchers and runners has a huge effect. Strategy settings for AI teams. Injuries and more can affect results.

If you look at real life, SB att and SB success% are way more variable than the other core result like HR 2B hits etc. Unlike the other results I don't mind if the SB results are a bit off as it will filter in to other areas very slightly and give the league a different look.

evanbarth · 05-14-2010, 04:13 PM

I agree -- SB rates vary by player by year by team on a lot of factors. But in the aggregate, if SB success was only 55% let's say that would be way out of wack.

I imagine there are people who played a few seasons with the default OOTP 11 settings for SBs. Does it seem in line with normal success rate, which I gather is somewhere in the 70% neighborhood.

evanbarth · 05-17-2010, 04:52 PM

anyone notice anything on this?

robc · 05-17-2010, 05:02 PM

I am playing a historical league and am in my third season. Here are my stolen base success rates using whatever the default modifiers are:
1975 67%
1976 63%
1977 62%

They are pretty close to the historical rates for those years.

Leatherfut · 05-17-2010, 07:22 PM

I noticed that something went out of wack with ootp10 and continues in 11. When I converted my fictional league to 10 the success rate went down quite a bit for the next two seasons. So I did some testing and what got the success rate back to about 70% was to adjust the "stolen base success %" to 1.24

I tested 11 before converting and it seems to be working the same way.

frank

05-14-2010, 10:29 AM	#1
evanbarth Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 328	Stolen Bases I felt in OOTP 9 that stolen bases were out of wack -- that runners were getting caught way too often with default settings. I felt it was much better in 10. I just converted over to 11 and switched the settings to the default MLB settings. In my first game, my 93 speed, 89 SB guy was caught twice. The pitcher had a "7" hold rating (1-100 scale) but the catcher had a 56 arm. Clearly, the sample size is incredibly small -- just wanted to know if anyone had any insight into stolen bases with the default ratings and if they needed to be tweaked any.

05-14-2010, 10:40 AM	#2
dagmar Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2006 Location: san diego, california Posts: 64	Raise the "stolen base success %" some in the league totals modifier. Or lower, in your case. In my league, the caught stealing % are around 28% to 30%. It was around 33% in one league and 31% in the other before I fiddled with the stolen base success % modifier. __________________ http://www.last.fm/user/dagmarlena10

05-14-2010, 03:38 PM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	You need a season or two of data to make a useful decision. Stolen bases can be tricky because there are so many factors involved. Talent and ratings distribution throughout the league for pitchers catchers and runners has a huge effect. Strategy settings for AI teams. Injuries and more can affect results. If you look at real life, SB att and SB success% are way more variable than the other core result like HR 2B hits etc. Unlike the other results I don't mind if the SB results are a bit off as it will filter in to other areas very slightly and give the league a different look. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

05-14-2010, 04:13 PM	#4
evanbarth Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 328	I agree -- SB rates vary by player by year by team on a lot of factors. But in the aggregate, if SB success was only 55% let's say that would be way out of wack. I imagine there are people who played a few seasons with the default OOTP 11 settings for SBs. Does it seem in line with normal success rate, which I gather is somewhere in the 70% neighborhood.

05-17-2010, 04:52 PM	#5
evanbarth Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 328	anyone notice anything on this?

05-17-2010, 05:02 PM	#6
robc Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,095	I am playing a historical league and am in my third season. Here are my stolen base success rates using whatever the default modifiers are: 1975 67% 1976 63% 1977 62% They are pretty close to the historical rates for those years.

05-17-2010, 07:22 PM	#7
Leatherfut Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 59	I noticed that something went out of wack with ootp10 and continues in 11. When I converted my fictional league to 10 the success rate went down quite a bit for the next two seasons. So I did some testing and what got the success rate back to about 70% was to adjust the "stolen base success %" to 1.24 I tested 11 before converting and it seems to be working the same way. frank