9th Inning Drama - Too much??

Oriole66 · 08-08-2009, 05:25 PM

Playing out some games in the playoffs, I'm noticing that crooked numbers go up real easy in the 9th for teams that are trailing.
I don't own or manage either team-playing as Commisssioner so I'm not griping... and this is the second unlikely 9th inning comeback in two days involving consecutive HR's.

Deciding game of the ALCS in 1969, Spokane leads 5-2; Bob Gibson, the ace - Cy Everything, Pitching Triple Crown winner- 27-5, 2.11, on the mound. Spokane is a 104 win team, Charlotte an 87 win team. Backing up Gibby is Frank Reberger, a 39 save reliever with an era of 1.71
Fireworks ensue:
Now at C: C. Dalrymple

Now at 1B: B. Spence

Now at SS: D. Schofield

Batting: RHB H. Aaron
0-0: Swinging Strike
0-1: Ball
1-1: Swinging Strike
1-2: Ball
2-2: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 382 ft
Batting: LHB M. Jones
0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: Fly out, F6 (Popup, 6MD)
Batting: RHB E. Charles
0-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 7D), Distance : 360 ft
Pitching: RHP F. Reberger

Batting: LHB R. Blomberg
0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 395 ft
Batting: LHB E. Kirkpatrick
0-0: DOUBLE (Line Drive, 5L)
Pinch Hitting: LHB L. Maye
0-0: Intentional Walk
Batting: SHB D. Kessinger
0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: Ball
3-0: Called Strike
3-1: Base on Balls
E. Kirkpatrick to third
L. Maye to second

Batting: LHB B. Allen
0-0: Ball
1-0: Fly out, F8 (Flyball, 8RS)
Batting: LHB N. Cash
0-0: Ball
1-0: Called Strike
1-1: Ball
2-1: Ball
3-1: Swinging Strike
3-2: Foul Ball, location: 2F
3-2: Base on Balls
E. Kirkpatrick scores
L. Maye to third
D. Kessinger to second

Batting: RHB H. Aaron
0-0: Ball
1-0: Called Strike
1-1: Fly out, F8 (Flyball, 8LM)

Oriole66 · 08-08-2009, 05:31 PM

PS - Spokane tied it back up in the bottom of the 9th and won it in the bottom of the 10th

The winning basehit was of the infield variety - the PBP told me that the fielder made the stab "but thought better" of making a throw.
This was the exact PBP scenario from the extra inning conclusion of the NLCS game the previous day

damientheomen3 · 08-08-2009, 05:47 PM

in one of my leagues, I calculated (for the hell of it) how many runs this 1 team scored in every inning, because they made the WS and won a lot of games in the 9th, and they scored more in the 9th than in innings 1-5 combined. They scored more in the last 2 innings than in innings 1-7 combined.

StyxNCa · 08-08-2009, 07:35 PM

I see a lot of late game rallies as well. Of course it isn't programmed into the game cuz, well, Markus said it isn't and as we all know game programmers are totally honest.

SteveP · 08-08-2009, 07:48 PM

I think that teams, which in a given season get a lot of breaks at the end of games, tend to have win-loss records significantly better than their Pyt.Rec., in real life and in OOTP.

I believe the conventional theory accounting for this is: luck.

Just my

risp2out · 08-09-2009, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oriole66

Fireworks ensue:
Now at C: C. Dalrymple

Now at 1B: B. Spence

Now at SS: D. Schofield

Batting: RHB H. Aaron
0-0: Swinging Strike
0-1: Ball
1-1: Swinging Strike
1-2: Ball
2-2: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 382 ft
Batting: LHB M. Jones
0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: Fly out, F6 (Popup, 6MD)
Batting: RHB E. Charles
0-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 7D), Distance : 360 ft
Pitching: RHP F. Reberger

Batting: LHB R. Blomberg
0-0: Ball
1-0: Ball
2-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 395 ft

That reminds me of this: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Recap - September 18, 2006 - ESPN Go Dodgers!

The question of late-inning rallies is different than that of late-inning runs. We need to see how many games are being decided in a team's last at bats. My hypothesis is that we see an uptick in late-inning runs because of the way "mop up relievers" are used. If the AI decides "this one is settled" and brings in a sub-par reliever, we'll see a surge in 8th and 9th inning runs scored.

I don't know what the numbers show. I just wanted to make sure we weren't jumping to conclusions about come backs on the basis of data about runs.

Oriole66 · 08-09-2009, 04:59 PM

The other thing to note is that 4/9 of Spokane's lineup was now late-inning defensive replacements or relief pitchers: Schofield, Dalrymple and Spence. The offense had to try to win with some weak sticks.

08-08-2009, 05:25 PM	#1
Oriole66 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 73	9th Inning Drama - Too much?? Playing out some games in the playoffs, I'm noticing that crooked numbers go up real easy in the 9th for teams that are trailing. I don't own or manage either team-playing as Commisssioner so I'm not griping... and this is the second unlikely 9th inning comeback in two days involving consecutive HR's. Deciding game of the ALCS in 1969, Spokane leads 5-2; Bob Gibson, the ace - Cy Everything, Pitching Triple Crown winner- 27-5, 2.11, on the mound. Spokane is a 104 win team, Charlotte an 87 win team. Backing up Gibby is Frank Reberger, a 39 save reliever with an era of 1.71 Fireworks ensue: Now at C: C. Dalrymple Now at 1B: B. Spence Now at SS: D. Schofield Batting: RHB H. Aaron 0-0: Swinging Strike 0-1: Ball 1-1: Swinging Strike 1-2: Ball 2-2: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 382 ft Batting: LHB M. Jones 0-0: Ball 1-0: Ball 2-0: Fly out, F6 (Popup, 6MD) Batting: RHB E. Charles 0-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 7D), Distance : 360 ft Pitching: RHP F. Reberger Batting: LHB R. Blomberg 0-0: Ball 1-0: Ball 2-0: SOLO HOME RUN (Flyball, 78XD), Distance : 395 ft Batting: LHB E. Kirkpatrick 0-0: DOUBLE (Line Drive, 5L) Pinch Hitting: LHB L. Maye 0-0: Intentional Walk Batting: SHB D. Kessinger 0-0: Ball 1-0: Ball 2-0: Ball 3-0: Called Strike 3-1: Base on Balls E. Kirkpatrick to third L. Maye to second Batting: LHB B. Allen 0-0: Ball 1-0: Fly out, F8 (Flyball, 8RS) Batting: LHB N. Cash 0-0: Ball 1-0: Called Strike 1-1: Ball 2-1: Ball 3-1: Swinging Strike 3-2: Foul Ball, location: 2F 3-2: Base on Balls E. Kirkpatrick scores L. Maye to third D. Kessinger to second Batting: RHB H. Aaron 0-0: Ball 1-0: Called Strike 1-1: Fly out, F8 (Flyball, 8LM) __________________ It's what you learn after you know it all that counts - Earl Weaver http://mysite.verizon.net/vze7jglp/index.html

08-08-2009, 05:31 PM	#2
Oriole66 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 73	PS - Spokane tied it back up in the bottom of the 9th and won it in the bottom of the 10th The winning basehit was of the infield variety - the PBP told me that the fielder made the stab "but thought better" of making a throw. This was the exact PBP scenario from the extra inning conclusion of the NLCS game the previous day __________________ It's what you learn after you know it all that counts - Earl Weaver http://mysite.verizon.net/vze7jglp/index.html

08-09-2009, 04:59 PM	#7
Oriole66 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 73	The other thing to note is that 4/9 of Spokane's lineup was now late-inning defensive replacements or relief pitchers: Schofield, Dalrymple and Spence. The offense had to try to win with some weak sticks. __________________ It's what you learn after you know it all that counts - Earl Weaver http://mysite.verizon.net/vze7jglp/index.html

08-08-2009, 07:35 PM	#4
StyxNCa Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 3,136	I see a lot of late game rallies as well. Of course it isn't programmed into the game cuz, well, Markus said it isn't and as we all know game programmers are totally honest.

08-08-2009, 07:48 PM	#5
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	I think that teams, which in a given season get a lot of breaks at the end of games, tend to have win-loss records significantly better than their Pyt.Rec., in real life and in OOTP. I believe the conventional theory accounting for this is: luck. Just my