Questionable sim results...what gives?

locust9 · 07-04-2009, 10:13 PM

So i've recently started two different seasons from 2009.. with default settings it seems like the numbers are mostly.. not right. It looks to me like this first season is about .50 pts off, BA wise.

Jose Reyes, career .300 hitter, hit .363. If it was just him. fine. But...

Jed Lowrie, career .258, hits .341.

Nate Mclouth, career .267 hits .331 with .410 obp, 85 pts higher than his career peak..

I did a quick eyeball.. I counted over fifty guys who are more than .40 higher than their career peaks in BA.

I checked my league totals.. the modifiers are all sub 1.000, check.. should i reduce the hits total? will that affect anything during season, or do i need the season to end before the changes will take effect?

I'm at a loss... I just want the most accurate results for 2009 possible.. can someone tell me what settings I need to achieve that?

Thanks!

Nukester · 07-05-2009, 12:52 AM

Edit: Nevermind, I realized that doing the steps in the thread I linked to wouldnt help since there are no 2010 stats to compare to

Maybe try taking the real life totals as of now, double them, and use them as the league totals.

RchW · 07-05-2009, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locust9

I'm at a loss... I just want the most accurate results for 2009 possible.. can someone tell me what settings I need to achieve that?

Thanks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nukester

Edit: Nevermind, I realized that doing the steps in the thread I linked to wouldnt help since there are no 2010 stats to compare to

Maybe try taking the real life totals as of now, double them, and use them as the league totals.

The 2009 season hasn't happened yet so it would be hard to project.

Are you using recalc? This is important to know.

To expand on Nukester's point, do the following.

Check the current league ERA and BA for your league in the league history. Compare these values to the real life ones from BR. If they are way off that is your first indication of a problem.
If you want a more specific comparison look at the team/total stats in the game ( menu "league name"/"statistics"/"team statistics" tab) and compare them to current team/league totals in BR.
It's not easy to do this in season as you will have to project numbers over the 162 games played and so on.
However checking league averages like BA OBP ERA or runs/game may let you see if things are way off.
Individual results may be misleading. If you are not using recalc, players may develop up or down and have significant variability from their now "fictional real life" stats.

You said

Quote:

I did a quick eyeball.. I counted over fifty guys who are more than .40 higher than their career peaks in BA.

I hope you mean 0.040.

Is there anyone down a lot?

locust9 · 07-07-2009, 11:36 AM

I am using 3 year recalc.. does this mean it will use the fictional stats from the three years I've simulated or will it disregard these because I'm not actually simulating seasons that existed (ie, it's 2013, 2014, 2015).

Second.. should I be using the league modifiers historical adjustment or not? As far as I can tell, this aligns subsequent seasons with the output of the season in question.. but I am not sure what it will do if the outcomes are already off target, it seems like it would be even more off target unless I correct them with modifiers.

Sorry if this is a bit muddled, I've been playing OOTP for a long time but there are still a few new wrinkles to sort.

Thanks!

StyxNCa · 07-07-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locust9

I am using 3 year recalc.. does this mean it will use the fictional stats from the three years I've simulated or will it disregard these because I'm not actually simulating seasons that existed (ie, it's 2013, 2014, 2015).

Second.. should I be using the league modifiers historical adjustment or not? As far as I can tell, this aligns subsequent seasons with the output of the season in question.. but I am not sure what it will do if the outcomes are already off target, it seems like it would be even more off target unless I correct them with modifiers.

Sorry if this is a bit muddled, I've been playing OOTP for a long time but there are still a few new wrinkles to sort.

Thanks!

Recalc can only be used when there are real life stats for it to use. If there aren't then recalc needs to be turned off.

locust9 · 07-09-2009, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Recalc can only be used when there are real life stats for it to use. If there aren't then recalc needs to be turned off.

Yeah.. so I've started about 5 different leagues with a number of different settings.. and I still can't get reasonable performance.. there is just too much variance, even when i lower the modifiers considerably, i'm still seeing lots of .370 hitters at midseason..

does anyone have a good vanilla setup they use for 2008, league totals/modifiers? I suppose I could try the Steve method but that seems to presuppose that the initial season of stats I got was accurate (it wasn't).

Am I just missing something obvious? The only other thought I have is that somehow my settings got hosed, but i've started completely new leagues with default settings and am still seeing pretty aberrant numbers.

tx

TribeFanInNC · 07-10-2009, 07:41 AM

I would suggest the SteveP method, though yes it does mean you will need to start over. Definitely turn recalc off.

But, I don't really see a problem. Guys are supposed to be hitting .370 at the break. What is Joe Mauer's career average v. RL 2009? What is Jason Bartlett's career average v. RL 2009? Basically anytime a player hits .350, they are generally several standard deviations away from their career norm. Guys hit above their career average all the time. There are hundreds of RL examples of what you described. You've described three guys that are young and could develop in the confines of the game. I don't see anything wrong.

If you do decide to start changing modifiers, make sure you are comparing whole league stats to what you want to see (like real life 2008 league stats). You can't just say 'Jose Reyes would never hit .363, so I'm gonna drop the BA modifier 10%'.

07-04-2009, 10:13 PM	#1
locust9 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 36	Questionable sim results...what gives? So i've recently started two different seasons from 2009.. with default settings it seems like the numbers are mostly.. not right. It looks to me like this first season is about .50 pts off, BA wise. Jose Reyes, career .300 hitter, hit .363. If it was just him. fine. But... Jed Lowrie, career .258, hits .341. Nate Mclouth, career .267 hits .331 with .410 obp, 85 pts higher than his career peak.. I did a quick eyeball.. I counted over fifty guys who are more than .40 higher than their career peaks in BA. I checked my league totals.. the modifiers are all sub 1.000, check.. should i reduce the hits total? will that affect anything during season, or do i need the season to end before the changes will take effect? I'm at a loss... I just want the most accurate results for 2009 possible.. can someone tell me what settings I need to achieve that? Thanks! Last edited by locust9; 07-04-2009 at 10:13 PM. Reason: mistype

07-05-2009, 12:52 AM	#2
Nukester All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Newburgh, NY Posts: 1,923	Edit: Nevermind, I realized that doing the steps in the thread I linked to wouldnt help since there are no 2010 stats to compare to Maybe try taking the real life totals as of now, double them, and use them as the league totals. Last edited by Nukester; 07-05-2009 at 12:54 AM.

07-07-2009, 11:36 AM	#4
locust9 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 36	I am using 3 year recalc.. does this mean it will use the fictional stats from the three years I've simulated or will it disregard these because I'm not actually simulating seasons that existed (ie, it's 2013, 2014, 2015). Second.. should I be using the league modifiers historical adjustment or not? As far as I can tell, this aligns subsequent seasons with the output of the season in question.. but I am not sure what it will do if the outcomes are already off target, it seems like it would be even more off target unless I correct them with modifiers. Sorry if this is a bit muddled, I've been playing OOTP for a long time but there are still a few new wrinkles to sort. Thanks!

07-10-2009, 07:41 AM	#7
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	I would suggest the SteveP method, though yes it does mean you will need to start over. Definitely turn recalc off. But, I don't really see a problem. Guys are supposed to be hitting .370 at the break. What is Joe Mauer's career average v. RL 2009? What is Jason Bartlett's career average v. RL 2009? Basically anytime a player hits .350, they are generally several standard deviations away from their career norm. Guys hit above their career average all the time. There are hundreds of RL examples of what you described. You've described three guys that are young and could develop in the confines of the game. I don't see anything wrong. If you do decide to start changing modifiers, make sure you are comparing whole league stats to what you want to see (like real life 2008 league stats). You can't just say 'Jose Reyes would never hit .363, so I'm gonna drop the BA modifier 10%'.