majors fine, but inaccurate minors totals

thehef · 11-12-2008, 02:21 AM

I started a historical sim in 1901, using the Mod Garlon/Spritze neutralized db. I have Majors, of course, plus three 8-team Triple-A leagues, a 32-team Double A league, and a 40-team Single A league. The minors are filled with fictional players who are not allowed to reach the majors, and a small number of historical players.

Before actually starting, I ran a 22-year test (no trades, all teams AI-controlled) and found that – other than the first year, where the league batting averages & ERA’s were too low – the majors avg & ERA followed history quite well. However, most of the minors are way off:

Am Assoc (AAA) – Fine, pretty much mirrors the majors
Int’l Lg (AAA) – OK, but lg avg typically about 10-20 lower than Am Assoc & majors
PCL (AAA) – league avg about .200-.220 from ’01 thru ’15. Creeped up to the .250’s and .260’s in ’20 thru ’22, but still about .010 lower than I.L. and .020-.030 lower then Am Assoc & majors
Nat’l Assoc (AA) – Under .220 every year until ’20 (.231). Up to mid-.240’s in ’21 & ’22.
Cont’l Lg (A) - .226 1st year, then not higher than .211 until ’20. In fact there were seven straight yrs under .200. Finally reached mid-.230’s in ’21 & ’22.

Not sure which of these are relevant, but here are my settings:

OPTIONS:
Auto-adjust league strategy
Recalc each year, based on 3-yr
Auto-adjust league totals modifiers after each yr for historical accuracy
Block fictional players from majors

STRATEGY:
I used import settings for 1901 at start-up
Auto-adjust league totals modifiers after each yr for historical accuracy
Auto-import historical player-creation modifiers
No changes to any of the modifiers, etc. on the Strategy tab

I did not change any of these setting, majors vs. minors.

Obviously, I’d like to have minors with somewhat realistic stats. I'm fine with the difference between the majors (& Am Assoc) and the Int'l Lg, but the other leagues - where avg's are hovering around .200 most years, are too far out of whack... Any ideas what is wrong & why two of the AAA leagues are ok while the third AAA and the lower minors aren’t? Are there posts out there that deal with this?

I’m hoping the answer isn’t to tweak modifiers and test & test, because that sounds like a whole lot of non-baseball-related statistical analysis and time-consuming testing. That’s not why I’m playing the game.

Thanks in advance.

Isura · 11-12-2008, 02:49 AM

This is a known problem. You could adjust the modifiers for each league. Actually I'm working on a project for minor league modifier adjustments.. Which should give more accurate minor league stats.

thehef · 11-12-2008, 04:51 PM

Thanks for the reply...

What is the known problem? Is there a thread for it?

Does the known problem include the situation where multiple supposedly equal levels of minors (in my case, 3 AAA leagues) would - in relation to major-league totals - be fine (my amer assoc), ok (my I.L.), and not close (my PCL)?

Given my numbers (batting avgs) above, any suggestions on which modifiers to tweak & how much, for each league? As I said, testing takes a long time & I'd rather not do a ton of it... And do you think I could tweak these numbers just once (maybe just before or after the first season), and then they'll adjust automatically and likely be ok moving forward?

Isura · 11-12-2008, 05:26 PM

Follow my new thread http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...s-project.html

RchW · 11-12-2008, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thehef

Thanks for the reply...

What is the known problem? Is there a thread for it?

Does the known problem include the situation where multiple supposedly equal levels of minors (in my case, 3 AAA leagues) would - in relation to major-league totals - be fine (my amer assoc), ok (my I.L.), and not close (my PCL)?

Given my numbers (batting avgs) above, any suggestions on which modifiers to tweak & how much, for each league? As I said, testing takes a long time & I'd rather not do a ton of it... And do you think I could tweak these numbers just once (maybe just before or after the first season), and then they'll adjust automatically and likely be ok moving forward?

You can't adjust anything unless you have a baseline era and then some results. I think Isura is doing that, I haven't read his mod post in detail yet.

I use 2007 data for my MLB and for the minors. The minor league data (see Minor League Baseball Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com) is incomplete so I decided to use MLB data for stuff like passed balls and wild pitches and set it up in proportion to the league size ie 12/30 for a 12 team minor league. This isn't perfect but its close enough for less important stats.

Once I had totals for the minors I normalized them to OOTP. Minor league totals in OOTP are high because there are no rainouts, no 7 inning double headers and no lost games (yes there are missing games). I normalize each minor league set of league totals to the number of AB in real life in 2007.

I set up a spread sheet to compare my baseline league totals to the game results each season and generate a modifier. Each off season I do this again (tedious) and adjust the modifier. For the minors some of the modifiers are huge, like 6.7 for HR in the Florida league.

It takes 3-4 seasons to titrate the swings in league totals as your initial modifier may overshoot or not make the desired total. I also tweak modifiers from time to time to generate more or less homeruns or steals etc.

See the attached spreadsheet. Please don't laugh, I'm not a pro at this stuff.

So far I'm extremely happy with this method. Results are so close that I don't change the modifiers every season any more. The game seems to have a natural fluctuation of 3-5%. If I want more or less than that I change the modifiers.

It would be really nice if we could enter league totals and modifiers into a csv file and have that picked up by the game. That would make the whole exercise easier.

Isura · 11-12-2008, 08:05 PM

Nice work Rchw. Where in OOTP do you find minor league totals for passed balls, hit batter, SB attempts etc?

thehef · 11-12-2008, 08:24 PM

Thanks. I will follow Isura's thread on this, and will check out RichW's stuff. Although I'm not sure how much I want to be dealing w modifiers...

Anyways, there may be a pattern that relates to major-league affiliation. In the case of my triple-A American Associaton, all eight teams are affiliated w the majors; that's the one minor-league where the league batting avg & ERA seem to be on par w the majors. However, for the (now) 37-year history of my test, there is a clear disparity between the stats & success of the affiliated vs non-affiliated triple-A teams:

Int'l League:

Code:

 
team, playoffs, champs, 37-yr batting avg
 
BAL*     5/4 .260
BUF      9/5 .246 
JC*      2/1 .259
MON*     8/7 .263
NWK*    23/13 .271
RDG      4/1 .247 
ROC*     8/2 .267
TOR*    12/4 .263
 
* = affiliated w majors

BUF has managed some successful seasons despite a BA that is - like RDG (the other non-affiliated team) - some 15+ pts lower than the affiliateds...

Now check out the PCL:

Code:

 
HWD      4/2 .234
LAA*    22/8 .259
MSN      9/4 .236
OAK      4/2 .236
POR*    26/17 .264
SAC      2/0 .229
SF       2/2 .230
SEA      5/2 .232

Clearly, the two affiliated teams have dominated the postseasons and have batting avg's significantly higher than the other teams...

Overall post-season appearances/success of affiliated triple-A teams is clear in the PCL, not so much in the IL. However, there is - without exception - a clear pattern of non-affiliated triple-A teams batting significantly lower than the affiliated teams.

A spot-check of my double-A leagues shows that BA's seem to be slightly higher on affilated teams vs non-affiliated, but there's doesn't seem to be a difference in post-season appearances. At the single-A level, there's no noticeable difference (this could be because there are so many more teams in those leagues: 36 in AA, 40 in A).

Any thoughts on this? And/or ideas for relatively painless tweaks to workaround this?

Perhaps I should test by having all minor-league teams affiliated w majors? This could result in all three triple-A leagues having realistic stats, but I'm not sure it'd do much for double- and single-A.

RchW · 11-12-2008, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isura

Nice work Rchw. Where in OOTP do you find minor league totals for passed balls, hit batter, SB attempts etc?

Not every stat is available. As I said in my post I used MLB data pro rated to the smaller league sizes. Not strictly accurate but good enough for me.

For example MLB 2007 DP were 4654 so for the Florida league you take 4654X12/30 = 1862 DP.

Now one could argue that the low minors may not produce proportional stats to MLB. I did play around with WP and HBP a bit to increase those totals in the low minors.

For SB attempts I used the actual minor league SB totals and applied a blended % successful rate to calculate attempts.

Edit!!

I may have misunderstood your question. Some stats only have modifiers ie. WP Balks PB SacF SacB SB att SB success DP and Errors. See below.

To find the actual totals go to statistics/team statistics after the season is over. It's these numbers that you would set modifiers for.

Isura · 11-12-2008, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I may have misunderstood your question. Some stats only have modifiers ie. WP Balks PB SacF SacB SB att SB success DP and Errors. See below.

To find the actual totals go to statistics/team statistics after the season is over. It's these numbers that you would set modifiers for.

Right, my question was about the latter. For minor league stats I only see the BNN webpage thing with stats.. But not the more detailed team stats such as hit by pitch (those only shown for major league).

RchW · 11-12-2008, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isura

Right, my question was about the latter. For minor league stats I only see the BNN webpage thing with stats.. But not the more detailed team stats such as hit by pitch (those only shown for major league).

On the top right corner just below the X click and a drop down list of all leagues can be seen. Choose a league and then follow menu (League name)/statistics choose the team statistics tab and you have batting pitching and defense league totals for viewing.

thehef · 11-13-2008, 02:50 PM

Has anyone else seen a correlation - as I described above - between the affiliation status of minor league teams and their batting averages?

thehef · 11-15-2008, 02:03 PM

bump

Isura · 11-15-2008, 04:39 PM

Not sure about the correlation. But I've found some good modifiers (see my thread). Try them out and let me know who it works outs.

11-12-2008, 02:21 AM	#1
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,382	majors fine, but inaccurate minors totals I started a historical sim in 1901, using the Mod Garlon/Spritze neutralized db. I have Majors, of course, plus three 8-team Triple-A leagues, a 32-team Double A league, and a 40-team Single A league. The minors are filled with fictional players who are not allowed to reach the majors, and a small number of historical players. Before actually starting, I ran a 22-year test (no trades, all teams AI-controlled) and found that – other than the first year, where the league batting averages & ERA’s were too low – the majors avg & ERA followed history quite well. However, most of the minors are way off: Am Assoc (AAA) – Fine, pretty much mirrors the majors Int’l Lg (AAA) – OK, but lg avg typically about 10-20 lower than Am Assoc & majors PCL (AAA) – league avg about .200-.220 from ’01 thru ’15. Creeped up to the .250’s and .260’s in ’20 thru ’22, but still about .010 lower than I.L. and .020-.030 lower then Am Assoc & majors Nat’l Assoc (AA) – Under .220 every year until ’20 (.231). Up to mid-.240’s in ’21 & ’22. Cont’l Lg (A) - .226 1st year, then not higher than .211 until ’20. In fact there were seven straight yrs under .200. Finally reached mid-.230’s in ’21 & ’22. Not sure which of these are relevant, but here are my settings: OPTIONS: Auto-adjust league strategy Recalc each year, based on 3-yr Auto-adjust league totals modifiers after each yr for historical accuracy Block fictional players from majors STRATEGY: I used import settings for 1901 at start-up Auto-adjust league totals modifiers after each yr for historical accuracy Auto-import historical player-creation modifiers No changes to any of the modifiers, etc. on the Strategy tab I did not change any of these setting, majors vs. minors. Obviously, I’d like to have minors with somewhat realistic stats. I'm fine with the difference between the majors (& Am Assoc) and the Int'l Lg, but the other leagues - where avg's are hovering around .200 most years, are too far out of whack... Any ideas what is wrong & why two of the AAA leagues are ok while the third AAA and the lower minors aren’t? Are there posts out there that deal with this? I’m hoping the answer isn’t to tweak modifiers and test & test, because that sounds like a whole lot of non-baseball-related statistical analysis and time-consuming testing. That’s not why I’m playing the game. Thanks in advance.

11-12-2008, 08:24 PM	#7
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,382	Thanks. I will follow Isura's thread on this, and will check out RichW's stuff. Although I'm not sure how much I want to be dealing w modifiers... Anyways, there may be a pattern that relates to major-league affiliation. In the case of my triple-A American Associaton, all eight teams are affiliated w the majors; that's the one minor-league where the league batting avg & ERA seem to be on par w the majors. However, for the (now) 37-year history of my test, there is a clear disparity between the stats & success of the affiliated vs non-affiliated triple-A teams: Int'l League: Code: team, playoffs, champs, 37-yr batting avg BAL* 5/4 .260 BUF 9/5 .246 JC* 2/1 .259 MON* 8/7 .263 NWK* 23/13 .271 RDG 4/1 .247 ROC* 8/2 .267 TOR* 12/4 .263 * = affiliated w majors BUF has managed some successful seasons despite a BA that is - like RDG (the other non-affiliated team) - some 15+ pts lower than the affiliateds... Now check out the PCL: Code: HWD 4/2 .234 LAA* 22/8 .259 MSN 9/4 .236 OAK 4/2 .236 POR* 26/17 .264 SAC 2/0 .229 SF 2/2 .230 SEA 5/2 .232 Clearly, the two affiliated teams have dominated the postseasons and have batting avg's significantly higher than the other teams... Overall post-season appearances/success of affiliated triple-A teams is clear in the PCL, not so much in the IL. However, there is - without exception - a clear pattern of non-affiliated triple-A teams batting significantly lower than the affiliated teams. A spot-check of my double-A leagues shows that BA's seem to be slightly higher on affilated teams vs non-affiliated, but there's doesn't seem to be a difference in post-season appearances. At the single-A level, there's no noticeable difference (this could be because there are so many more teams in those leagues: 36 in AA, 40 in A). Any thoughts on this? And/or ideas for relatively painless tweaks to workaround this? Perhaps I should test by having all minor-league teams affiliated w majors? This could result in all three triple-A leagues having realistic stats, but I'm not sure it'd do much for double- and single-A.

11-12-2008, 02:49 AM	#2
Isura Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 361	This is a known problem. You could adjust the modifiers for each league. Actually I'm working on a project for minor league modifier adjustments.. Which should give more accurate minor league stats.

11-12-2008, 04:51 PM	#3
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,382	Thanks for the reply... What is the known problem? Is there a thread for it? Does the known problem include the situation where multiple supposedly equal levels of minors (in my case, 3 AAA leagues) would - in relation to major-league totals - be fine (my amer assoc), ok (my I.L.), and not close (my PCL)? Given my numbers (batting avgs) above, any suggestions on which modifiers to tweak & how much, for each league? As I said, testing takes a long time & I'd rather not do a ton of it... And do you think I could tweak these numbers just once (maybe just before or after the first season), and then they'll adjust automatically and likely be ok moving forward?

11-12-2008, 05:26 PM	#4
Isura Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 361	Follow my new thread http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...s-project.html

11-12-2008, 08:05 PM	#6
Isura Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 361	Nice work Rchw. Where in OOTP do you find minor league totals for passed balls, hit batter, SB attempts etc?

11-13-2008, 02:50 PM	#11
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,382	Has anyone else seen a correlation - as I described above - between the affiliation status of minor league teams and their batting averages?

11-15-2008, 02:03 PM	#12
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,382	bump

11-15-2008, 04:39 PM	#13
Isura Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 361	Not sure about the correlation. But I've found some good modifiers (see my thread). Try them out and let me know who it works outs.