Idea for a new scouting metric..

[NomarHits400]

Can OOTP capture the concept of a prospect who has relatively modest ceiling- but has a high probability of reaching that ceiling vs. a player with a very high ceiling and a considerably lower probability of reaching that ceiling....And can the scout relate these details to the GM?

This might manifest itself in terms of the 5 tool 18 year old HS player who is still very raw but has a ton of athletic talent vs. a college player whose skill set is well known but whose ceiling is much more certain (and lower) as well. I realize that the game probably models this already- but it would be nice- as in real life- for your scout to recommend some high risk/high reward type players later in the draft that might be worth taking a chance on. As it stands now, the latter parts of the draft are pretty monotonous knowing that all the player past the first 10 rounds are a crapshoot because all the scouts rate them about the same....Something like a confidence for success rating or something to go along with the scouting report.

Your elite players are going to have high potentials as well as high "confidence for success"- but it would be nice to model the other different combinations to take advantage of unique scouting skills and would spice up the latter parts of the draft as well.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by NomarHits400

Can OOTP capture the concept of a prospect who has relatively modest ceiling- but has a high probability of reaching that ceiling vs. a player with a very high ceiling and a considerably lower probability of reaching that ceiling....And can the scout relate these details to the GM?

This might manifest itself in terms of the 5 tool 18 year old HS player who is still very raw but has a ton of athletic talent vs. a college player whose skill set is well known but whose ceiling is much more certain (and lower) as well. I realize that the game probably models this already- but it would be nice- as in real life- for your scout to recommend some high risk/high reward type players later in the draft that might be worth taking a chance on. As it stands now, the latter parts of the draft are pretty monotonous knowing that all the player past the first 10 rounds are a crapshoot because all the scouts rate them about the same....Something like a confidence for success rating or something to go along with the scouting report.

Your elite players are going to have high potentials as well as high "confidence for success"- but it would be nice to model the other different combinations to take advantage of unique scouting skills and would spice up the latter parts of the draft as well.

Kind of like the real life draft isn't it?

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by BruceM

Kind of like the real life draft isn't it?

+1

FWII, the best pitcher in my fictional league was a 18th round draft pick... he has 323 wins right now So, it works the other way round in OOTP as well...

[messenjah]

Yeah, I think this is a great idea. I love the new scouting system and it is easily my favorite part of the game so far. That being said, it'd be cool to add one more comment at the bottom of the scouting report that says whether this guy has a high ceiling/room to improve or not. It seems that this is the major role of scouts, to tell you how much better a guy can get. It especially helps for guys like me who turn off ratings but keep on potential. Let us know where a guy is at in his development.

[NomarHits400]

Originally Posted by BruceM

Kind of like the real life draft isn't it?

No, actually it's not. In real life- scouts opinions about players grow further and further apart as you get away from the best players in the draft. That is- a player team A evaluates higher in round ten than teams B, C, D..etc.. will be a pick made on your scout's recommendations. He may be a bust- but at least you drafted him for a reason.

In OOTP- at least the way it worked last year- there were NEVER anything more than 1 star players available after the first round or two becasue all the scouts saw these players the same way.....Why bother even taking the time to draft manually if it's a dice roll on 400 1 star players?

The real draft is littered with "reach" picks- or picks that other organizations view as wasted but sometimes pan out and make a name for said scout....I'd just like to see this modeled a bit better in the game is all...I am not talking about a detailed number from 1-100 that tells me a prospects chance of making it; just perhaps a grade from A-D in terms of probabilty- or how sure a scout is of his projections. Again, it doesn't always mean he's going to be right.

[NomarHits400]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

+1

FWII, the best pitcher in my fictional league was a 18th round draft pick... he has 323 wins right now So, it works the other way round in OOTP as well...

That's not my point- I understand full well OOTP models late round gems- and I think you've done a great job with that. My point is- you didn't draft him based on your scout's preference over any other scout in the rest of the league; it was blind luck....Unless you are going to tell me your scout told you this guy was 1 star player- but had sleeper potential. I am OK with getting a good player through blind luck- just wish that wasn't the only way to pick off a late round gem.