Good values for player aging/development modifiers?

[Kekkonen]

I recently bought the 2008 version, and I've been playing a game with the MLB rosters that come with the game. I left the aging/development modifiers at 1.000 and talent change randomness at 100, and as a result, by 2010 big-league baseball has become a young man's game. I see a lot of guys starting to hit a wall in their late 20s or very early 30s: for example, after the 2010 season, Vlad Guerrero has retired as a 33-year-old washout who struggled to hit AAA pitching; Pujols has turned from a premier slugger into someone who in 2010 just barely batted his weight; Jake Peavy had a good 2010 but has had 2-3 point drops (in a scale of 1-20) in current ratings across the board since his 29th birthday, which doesn't bode well for 2011. All of these people still have fantastic potential, but their current ratings are in steep decline. On the other hand, there are players -- especially SPs -- who just breeze through minor league systems and become good major league players in their very early 20s, with ratings at or very close to their max potential.

So, any recommendations as to how I should set the modifiers?

[PSUColonel]

[QUOTE=Kekkonen;2437483]I recently bought the 2008 version, and I've been playing a game with the MLB rosters that come with the game. I left the aging/development modifiers at 1.000 and talent change randomness at 100, and as a result, by 2010 big-league baseball has become a young man's game. I see a lot of guys starting to hit a wall in their late 20s or very early 30s: for example, after the 2010 season, Vlad Guerrero has retired as a 33-year-old washout who struggled to hit AAA pitching; Pujols has turned from a premier slugger into someone who in 2010 just barely batted his weight; Jake Peavy had a good 2010 but has had 2-3 point drops (in a scale of 1-20) in current ratings across the board since his 29th birthday, which doesn't bode well for 2011. All of these people still have fantastic potential, but their current ratings are in steep decline. On the other hand, there are players -- especially SPs -- who just breeze through minor league systems and become good major league players in their very early 20s, with ratings at or very close to their max potential.


My recommendation is to not use modified rosters, and just play with fictional players with real teams/logos/stadiums etc...

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by Kekkonen

I recently bought the 2008 version, and I've been playing a game with the MLB rosters that come with the game. I left the aging/development modifiers at 1.000 and talent change randomness at 100, and as a result, by 2010 big-league baseball has become a young man's game. I see a lot of guys starting to hit a wall in their late 20s or very early 30s: for example, after the 2010 season, Vlad Guerrero has retired as a 33-year-old washout who struggled to hit AAA pitching; Pujols has turned from a premier slugger into someone who in 2010 just barely batted his weight; Jake Peavy had a good 2010 but has had 2-3 point drops (in a scale of 1-20) in current ratings across the board since his 29th birthday, which doesn't bode well for 2011. All of these people still have fantastic potential, but their current ratings are in steep decline. On the other hand, there are players -- especially SPs -- who just breeze through minor league systems and become good major league players in their very early 20s, with ratings at or very close to their max potential.

So, any recommendations as to how I should set the modifiers?

Don't touch them.

Vlad has already started to fall apart. Look at his SB totals. How much is left in the tank? He can't run like he used to.

Pujols can't run anymore, either. His SB's disappeared, his GIDP spiked. It will be interesting to see if this changes this season for better or worse. If he rebounds, he's a lock for Cooperstown. If he sputters around the next few seasons, he will be a $100 million dollar copy of Wally Berger.

These guys have old knees.

Peavy is a little more of a problem, as he shows no decline trend, and would be just 30 in 2010.

[Kekkonen]

OK, maybe Guerrero and Pujols aren't good examples. But I still think there's something screwy going on.

Looking at the MLB pitching leaders for 2010, the only pitcher over 26 who's in top-7 of any of the major stat categories (ERA, Wins, Saves, VORP, Strikeouts, you name it) is Peavey (29) who tops the league in wins (but is not listed anywhere else in the pitching leaders view). Top 5 starters ERA-wise are aged 22, 22, 24, 26, and 24.

As for batters, the only 30-year-old who had a noteworthy season was Ron Howard, who was 3rd in the home run race with 36, and who, based on comparison of scouting reports by the same scout from February and October 2010, is well on his way of disappearing off the face of the earth (and again, not because of a drop in potential, but because his current ratings are fading). And he's a 1st-baseman, he's not supposed to be able to run. The other top-7 sluggers are aged 26, 22, 24, 26, 23, and 27.

[DrSatan]

Originally Posted by Kekkonen

OK, maybe Guerrero and Pujols aren't good examples. But I still think there's something screwy going on.

Looking at the MLB pitching leaders for 2010, the only pitcher over 26 who's in top-7 of any of the major stat categories (ERA, Wins, Saves, VORP, Strikeouts, you name it) is Peavey (29) who tops the league in wins (but is not listed anywhere else in the pitching leaders view). Top 5 starters ERA-wise are aged 22, 22, 24, 26, and 24.

As for batters, the only 30-year-old who had a noteworthy season was Ron Howard, who was 3rd in the home run race with 36, and who, based on comparison of scouting reports by the same scout from February and October 2010, is well on his way of disappearing off the face of the earth (and again, not because of a drop in potential, but because his current ratings are fading). And he's a 1st-baseman, he's not supposed to be able to run. The other top-7 sluggers are aged 26, 22, 24, 26, 23, and 27.

Check this thread for some testing I already did.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-question.html

I recommend setting aging at .800 or lower, talent change randomness to 0, and development speed between 1.00-1.10. The results are pretty close to real life, except you will have fewer prospect busts with talent change randomness set to 0. Search for some threads or do some testing for yourself to see what settings you prefer. If you find something in the forum, make sure they have some data to back up their suggestions. There's alot of people with opinions and no proof. Personally I like guys to develope fast and stick around for along time, so I set aging at .500 and dev at 1.25. It's not like real life, but it's fun.

[woodfeld]

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

Don't touch them.

Vlad has already started to fall apart. Look at his SB totals. How much is left in the tank? He can't run like he used to.

Pujols can't run anymore, either. His SB's disappeared, his GIDP spiked. It will be interesting to see if this changes this season for better or worse. If he rebounds, he's a lock for Cooperstown. If he sputters around the next few seasons, he will be a $100 million dollar copy of Wally Berger.

These guys have old knees.

Peavy is a little more of a problem, as he shows no decline trend, and would be just 30 in 2010.

As a Cards fan, I can only speak to Pujols here, but the guy is not fast by any stretch. The most SB's he's had in a year was 16 and that was an aberration (Albert Pujols Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com). He got 16 because he dedicated himself to becoming a good base runner that year and picked up on pitchers' habits. I think, in turn, the pitchers started to realize he was a threat and thus he wasn't able to repeat 16, but he still had 7 in 2006 (his 2nd highest total ever). As far as GIDP's, yes he does do that a decent amount, but last year (click link above) wasn't much higher than previous years and last year was a off year for him. He's even said this spring training that if he is in as much discomfort as he was last year, he'll opt for surgery this time around. To say that he's washed up after a off year, but still very strong year, is ridiculous. He's tearing it up in spring training thus far and I fully expect another MVP caliber season (barring this elbow flaring up, which is very possible).

And Vlad is still a very very good player, slower or not.

[dawurm9]

I'd have to agree with the players beginning their decline too early. I've always heard that the ages of 27-32 are the prime years, but with this version it seems the late 20s is the start of their decline, and a steep one. Or maybe that is just the random talent changes I'm seeing. Either way, it's rough having Erik Bedard going from a 4.5 star Cy Young candidate in year 1, my fifth starter in year 2 (and not in a very good rotation), to a poor AAA pitcher in year 3 at the age of 29.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

Check this thread for some testing I already did.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-question.html

I recommend setting aging at .800 or lower, talent change randomness to 0, and development speed between 1.00-1.10. The results are pretty close to real life, except you will have fewer prospect busts with talent change randomness set to 0. Search for some threads or do some testing for yourself to see what settings you prefer. If you find something in the forum, make sure they have some data to back up their suggestions. There's alot of people with opinions and no proof. Personally I like guys to develope fast and stick around for along time, so I set aging at .500 and dev at 1.25. It's not like real life, but it's fun.

Really? I thought that talent change randomness was just a measure of how often changes happen, not the actual changes. To visualize it, think of a series of points going "peak/valley", "peak/valley" but with the line trending up or down. In the case of zero randomness I'd expect to see year to year changes with nothing in between.

If what you say is true then you may not have so many busts, but the 11th round pick will never blossom into a star either.

[tysok]

Originally Posted by woodfeld

As a Cards fan, I can only speak to Pujols here, but the guy is not fast by any stretch. The most SB's he's had in a year was 16 and that was an aberration (Albert Pujols Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com). He got 16 because he dedicated himself to becoming a good base runner that year and picked up on pitchers' habits. I think, in turn, the pitchers started to realize he was a threat and thus he wasn't able to repeat 16, but he still had 7 in 2006 (his 2nd highest total ever). As far as GIDP's, yes he does do that a decent amount, but last year (click link above) wasn't much higher than previous years and last year was a off year for him. He's even said this spring training that if he is in as much discomfort as he was last year, he'll opt for surgery this time around. To say that he's washed up after a off year, but still very strong year, is ridiculous. He's tearing it up in spring training thus far and I fully expect another MVP caliber season (barring this elbow flaring up, which is very possible).

And Vlad is still a very very good player, slower or not.

I would have to agree on Pujols. Using SB (on a guy who was never fast to begin with) and a spike of a whole 7 more GIDP than last year would be somewhat like posting the same thing about Biggio in 1993. His SBs dropped by well more than half in '93, to 15, for a fast guy and his GIDP doubled!

But like Biggio in 1997 (0 GIDP), luck and chance plays a part in that stat. Pujols has been playing hurt since 2003, and he's still the only player in history to put up a certain collection of big numbers in his first 7 years. Think a wee bit of slack might be cut for him.

As for Vlad, he did spend 8 years playing on a concrete slab in Montreal in the National League. He still has a BA well over .300, SLG close to .550 and only in his rookie year (just over 300 ABs) did he hit less than 27 HRs. Don't think he's running the risk of embarrassing himself by playing this season.