ALDS: Red Sox v. Angels

[Moriarty9]

So who advances to the ALCS?
I'd have to say the Red Sox are favorites out of the Boston-Anaheim matchup.

The Red Sox took the season series, 6-4, outscoring the Angels by 22 runs in the series.
Since 2003, the Red Sox have gone 29-18 (including a three-game sweep in the 2004 ALDS) against the Angels.

While its certainly not a scientific method to do this, take a look position-by-position comparisons.

CATCHER:
Jason Varitek (.254, 16 HR, 67 RBI; 24.1% CS) v. Mike Napoli (.241, 9 HR, 33 RBI; 23.8% CS)
Varitek is the better hitter, has a greater percentage of throwing out would-be base stealers and is renowned for his pitch calling behind the plate. Pretty easy choice here.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox

FIRST BASE:
Kevin Youkilis (.290, 16 HR, 83 RBI; 1.000 fielding %) v. Casey Kotchman (.295, 11 HR, 68 RBI; .997 fielding %)
Youk is an on-base machine with more power than Kotchman and is a fantastic defensive firstbaseman. Both guys hit the other team very well this season (Youkilis hit .308 vs. LAA while Kotchman hit .343 vs. BOS) and Youkilis is coming off his wrist injury. Either way, the edge, in my mind, still goes to Youk.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox

SECOND BASE:
Dustin Pedroia (.317, 8 HR, 50 RBI; .990 fielding %) v. Howie Kendrick (.322, 5 HR, 39 RBI; .978 fielding %)
Both are good base-hit and contact hitters without a whole lot of pop in their sticks. Pedroia has played a fine 2B this year, including a number of big catchs and stops in key situations, while Kendrick's fielding percentage is significantly less. Again, both have hit the opposition quite well this season but the advantage goes to this year's Rookie of the Year.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox

THIRD BASE:
Mike Lowell (.326, 21 HR, 120 RBI; .961 fielding %) v. Chone Figgins (.332, 3 HR, 58 RBI; .943 fielding %)
Both are fine hitters but with much different strengths - Lowell is a good doubles hitter with power while Figgins is a speed demon who can beat out many grounders and bunts. Lowell is the better defensive player and is considered one of the best at the hot corner in quite some time. They both know how to play the game and play the game the right way. It's tough to compare the two based on their different skill sets but, call it a bias, I give the edge to Lowell ... but barely.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox



SHORTSTOP:
Julio Lugo (.236, 8 HR, 73 RBI; .968 fielding %) v. Orlando Cabrera (.301, 8 HR, 86 RBI; .983 fielding %)
The have similar power numbers but Cabrera has been much more consistent and has a .065 lead over his counterpart while playing a more efficient shortstop. Both have hit the opposition well but the OC has most definitely got the edge in this matchup.
ADVANTAGE: Angels


LEFT FIELD:
Manny Ramirez (.296, 20 HR, 87 RBI; .990 fielding %) v. Garret Anderson (.297, 16 HR, 80 RBI; .987 fielding %)
Normally this isn't much of a debate at all but Manny's back is an obvious concern for Red Sox Nation. While he has looked pretty good since coming back (.417, 5-12), he hasn't played a full game in the field since his return (although he played the entire game Saturday as DH) and its still completely clear just how strong his back is. Despite that, Manny at 80% is still better than Garret Anderson at age 35.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox

CENTER FIELD:
Coco Crisp (.270, 6 HR, 60 RBI; .998 fielding %) v. Gary Matthews Jr. (.252, 18 HR, 72 RBI; .987 fielding %)
You're not going to find much of a better defensive ballplayer than Coco and Willits hasn't got any power whatsoever. Neither has done much against their ALDS opponents during the regular season. I'd lean toward Matthews Jr. but with the Sox getting home-field throughout the ALDS, it's an awful tough call that can go either way.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

RIGHT FIELD:
J.D. Drew (.270, 11 HR, 64 RBI; .977 fielding %) v. Reggie Willits (.293, 0 HR, 34 RBI; .985 fielding %)
Despite J.D.'s awful start, he's hitting the ball much better as of late (especially to the opposite field). Drew has also belted the Angels during the 2007 campaign (.382) and gets the edge in my mind.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox


DH:
David Ortiz (.333, 35 HR, 117 RBI) v. Vladimir Guerrero (.324, 27 HR, 125 RBI)
Two of the best sluggers that any team could ask for, both of whom can carry their teams and hit in the important situations. Both have hit the opposition well (Big Papi hit .361 against the Angels while Vlad hit .371 against the Sox). Both are playing with some bruises and pains but, based on past history of coming through in the clutch, I give the slight advantage to Ortiz.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox


TOP 3 STARTING PITCHERS:
Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka (44-27, 3.85 ERA, 496 K) v. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon (42-24, 3.83 ERA)
Two very strong Cy Young candidates will likely square off in Game 1 of the ALDS with a pretty solid staff following them in a short series pitching rotation. The key will be how veterans Schilling and Colon do as both have been inconsistent this season while its been a roll of the dice to see which Matsuzaka shows up: the phenom or the guy who has that one inning with no control of his stuff. I call it a tie ... unless the Sox hurlers pitch to their potential.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

CLOSER:
Jonathan Papelbon (37 Saves, 1.88 ERA) v. Francisco Rodriguez (39 Saves, 2.81 ERA)
If you ask anyone in New England they'll say Paps is the best in the game. If you ask anyone in southern California, they'll likely say K-Rod is tops. Both have done well against the opposition (Papelbon is 2-for-2 with a 0.00 ERA, 6 K in 4 IP against LAA; Rodriguez is 2-for-3 with a 1.93 ERA, 5 K in 4 2/3 IP against BOS). The big difference, in my observations, is Papelbon tends to have fairly clean innings with few men reaching base while K-Rod seems to walk the tightropes hoping to punch someone out to do the job.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox


So, overall, the Red Sox get the advantage ... quite clearly.

Is it a bias on my part? I like to think its an objective look. What do you guys think?

[rudel.dietrich]

In a 5 game series predictions are useless and their is no guarantee that the best team will even win

[Green & Gold Heart]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really don't want a Yankees/Red Sox ALCS, but I don't like the Angels either. I don't want either of these teams to win.

[Big Hugg]

Surely the Angels aren't going to run Colon out there are they? It'd be Jered Weaver wouldn't it?

[myasu]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

In a 5 game series predictions are useless and their is no guarantee that the best team will even win

I have to agree with Fallschirmjager.
Momentum is the key for the 5 game series.

[His Own Bad Self]

I'm pulling for the Angels. I'm just tired of the big dogs in the East.

[f.montoya]

Moriarty9, just one error on your otherwise well thought out assessment. Reggie Willits is not their starting right fielder. Vladdy is. Do you think the Red Sox have the advantage at that position?

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really don't want a Yankees/Red Sox ALCS, but I don't like the Angels either. I don't want either of these teams to win.

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really want to see a Cleveland/LAA ALCS. I've had my fill of Red Sox/Yankees over the last several years and I am a lifelong Angel fan anyway.

[Big Hugg]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

Moriarty9, just one error on your otherwise well thought out assessment. Reggie Willits is not their starting right fielder. Vladdy is. Do you think the Red Sox have the advantage at that position?

I thought Vladdy was the DH as well. Who else DHs for them? As far as I can tell their best lineup has Guerrero, Anderson, Matthews and Willits all playing.

Of course, looking at baseball reference, apparently the most they've used any given alignment is 5 times (and that one had Hillenbrand at DH), so who knows what they're going to do.

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

I thought Vladdy was the DH as well. Who else DHs for them? As far as I can tell their best lineup has Guerrero, Anderson, Matthews and Willits all playing.

Of course, looking at baseball reference, apparently the most they've used any given alignment is 5 times (and that one had Hillenbrand at DH), so who knows what they're going to do.

Scoscia uses the DH spot differently than most AL clubs. There's no one DH on the team. Instead he'll use it strategically when he wants certain players in the lineup vs. certain pitchers. He'll use it as kind of a half day off for players. If both of his second basemen are hitting well at the same time he'll use the DH to make sure he can ride both hot bats for a little longer. He has also used the DH to get at bats for some of his young players, or players just getting back from injuries.

Vladdy has DH'd recently because he's been a bit banged up and Scoscia doesn't want any extra risk of injury. Once the Playoffs start, you'll see him in RF and you'll see different guys DH'ing throughout the playoffs.

[spark240]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

In a 5 game series predictions are useless and their is no guarantee that the best team will even win

Semantics...

In the playoffs, where the objective is to win each short series, isn't the team that accomplishes this, by definition, the best team?

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

Scoscia uses the DH spot differently than most AL clubs. There's no one DH on the team. Instead he'll use it strategically when he wants certain players in the lineup vs. certain pitchers. He'll use it as kind of a half day off for players.

I wouldn't say that he uses the DH differently, since this is basically the way teams always do when they don't have good DH options. Having different players at a position is something most teams do too.

As for resting players, every team does it. Even Ichiro Suzuki played a few games at DH.

Johny Damon played a lot of DH too, not that's some kind of strange move.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by spark240

Semantics...

In the playoffs, where the objective is to win each short series, isn't the team that accomplishes this, by definition, the best team?

I don't recall people using that kind of definition though. Is that the common usage of the phrase where you came from?

[Big Hugg]

I don't know what the obsession with "best" team is.

Who cares who the best team is? The only thing that matters is who the champion is.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

I don't know what the obsession with "best" team is.

Who cares who the best team is? The only thing that matters is who the champion is.

People somehow care a lot about these kind of things. Just see how people got fired up with the playoff vs. BCS debate.

[spark240]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

I don't recall people using that kind of definition though. Is that the common usage of the phrase where you came from?

The most common usage seems to be kind of abstract to me.

To me, if the whole point and purpose of an MLB franchise in a given season is ostensibly to win the World Series, then the team that wins the World Series according to that season's rules and practices, the only team that meets that objective, is the best team. How can a team that fails be termed "better" than a team that succeeds?

But, you're right, a lot of people seem to use the word "best" to mean something else. Most often, it seems to mean "the team I wanted to win," or "the team I predicted would win."

[mh2365]

Who gets home field between the Sox and the Indians if they meet in the ALCS?

[CMH]

Originally Posted by spark240

The most common usage seems to be kind of abstract to me.

To me, if the whole point and purpose of an MLB franchise in a given season is ostensibly to win the World Series, then the team that wins the World Series according to that season's rules and practices, the only team that meets that objective, is the best team. How can a team that fails be termed "better" than a team that succeeds?

But, you're right, a lot of people seem to use the word "best" to mean something else. Most often, it seems to mean "the team I wanted to win," or "the team I predicted would win."

Because a team could win 100 games and have the best record in the AL and not be better than the team that won 98 games in the NL.

The same way that works can help explain how a team that wins 3 of 5 before it loses 3 of 5 isn't necessarily better than the team they beat.

It's all about matchups for a particular series and how players perform in that given week.

Another example I'll give is a player's numbers over the course of a season. Great players hardly ever have 6 great months. So why should we excuse the entire month of the playoffs from this understanding?

[The Sox Guy]

Originally Posted by mh2365

Who gets home field between the Sox and the Indians if they meet in the ALCS?

The Red Sox do. We have home field throughout because of the tie breaker we had over Cleveland.

[CMH]

By the way I think the Red Sox will win this series.