Home field advantage

jg2977 · 07-24-2007, 12:49 AM

Is there a definitive home field advantange in this game? And if there is, is there a way to adjust it? I would like to make it harder for visiting teams to win Game 7's of playoff series. In Game 7, ideally, the crowd would be juiced up, and the home players would feed off of it. In my experience, it seems that visiting teams win way too many Game 7's for my liking.

I think that in the regular season, HFA should be very minimal, but in the playoffs HFA should be larger.

Curtis · 07-24-2007, 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jg2977

Is there a definitive home field advantange in this game? And if there is, is there a way to adjust it?

For your first question, yes there is, and the effect has been increased from what it was in 2006.

For your second question, no.

jg2977 · 07-24-2007, 04:09 PM

Thanks for answering. I just had a playoffs where a team played 14 games. 7 each at home and on the road. They were 1-6 at home, and 6-1 on the road. Pretty crazy. However, most of the time, teams in the playoffs generally do have a better record at home than on the road.

What I might do, just for fun, is keep a record of all Game 7's and record what percentage of the time the home team wins. That would be very interesting.

MDanbom · 07-24-2007, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jg2977

Thanks for answering. I just had a playoffs where a team played 14 games. 7 each at home and on the road. They were 1-6 at home, and 6-1 on the road. Pretty crazy. However, most of the time, teams in the playoffs generally do have a better record at home than on the road.

What I might do, just for fun, is keep a record of all Game 7's and record what percentage of the time the home team wins. That would be very interesting.

That's a good idea. You can probably chalk up what you experienced in that one year of playoffs to a small sample size.

zukes · 07-25-2007, 08:10 AM

I could have sworn there was a place to adjust that, but maybe it's just a yes or no question about home field advantage that defaults to yes.

OldFatGuy · 07-25-2007, 11:45 AM

Personally, rather than user adjusted, I would like to see it adjusted in game based on attendance. In other words, 100% attendance means 100% home field advantage, 50% attendance, means 50% home field advantage. That way you should get "better" home field advantage in the playoffs as suggested by the poster. Just my

.

EDIT: Or better yet, since all teams should have "some" HFA, default at 50% HFA and the final 50% based on attendance, IE 50% attendance means 75% of HFA.

Burgandy · 07-25-2007, 02:18 PM

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/070622.html

"A study of baseball HFA from 1901 to 2002 published in the Baseball Research Journal found "the average seasonal difference between a team's home winning percentage and its road winning percentage was .082." (In other words, an average team's home record is .541 and its away record is .459.)"

Over the average 162 game season, home-field advantage accounts for approximately 6.6 wins above the average 81-81 record.

If you try breaking that sample size down to a measly 7 games, you're talking about less than a 0.3 win difference from the average 3.5-3.5 record. I don't think that advantage is something you're going to see with the naked eye without looking at a little bit larger history.

"As baseball-stat guru Bill James has pointed out, an undefeated team has an HFA of zip." --this is the way I look at it.

Any historical stats that show a greater W/L% for the home team in the playoffs also include the fact that before the last 3 years, the team that earned home-field had a better record overall, and may well have just been a superior team, talent-wise. In other words, it's usually the better teams that have won the HFA in the playoffs. So of course they're should have a better record.. at home AND on the road.

IMO, the HFA in baseball doesn't come from crowd noise/size, etc. It comes from playing 81 games in one place and knowing the ballpark, how the ball bounces in the corners, the best places to pick up the ball off the bat, etc, etc. It's not like football where offenses need to be able to hear the snap count and a lot of crowd noise can create penalties or slow their jumps. This is ONLY my opinion.

Curtis · 07-29-2007, 03:10 PM

I mostly agree with Burgandy. I do think that increased crowd noise can pump up the adrenaline and might result in some heroics. On the other hands, pumped up adrenaline can also result in overanxiousness (choking), and some teams (the 1986 Mets, for example) claimed that they got more pumped from wanting to silence the enemy crowds cheering against them.

As for the % of attendence suggestion, I like it in theory, and it would work well in my leagues (where the ballparks have all been edited), but in real life baseball it would seriously hurt teams that play in monster stadiums, as Cleveland used to. (I think that would also apply to Detroit in the 60s and 70s, and to the second Washington Senators.) And teams in banboxes would get an unjustified boost.

07-24-2007, 12:49 AM	#1
jg2977 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 26,725	Home field advantage Is there a definitive home field advantange in this game? And if there is, is there a way to adjust it? I would like to make it harder for visiting teams to win Game 7's of playoff series. In Game 7, ideally, the crowd would be juiced up, and the home players would feed off of it. In my experience, it seems that visiting teams win way too many Game 7's for my liking. I think that in the regular season, HFA should be very minimal, but in the playoffs HFA should be larger.

07-24-2007, 04:09 PM	#3
jg2977 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 26,725	Thanks for answering. I just had a playoffs where a team played 14 games. 7 each at home and on the road. They were 1-6 at home, and 6-1 on the road. Pretty crazy. However, most of the time, teams in the playoffs generally do have a better record at home than on the road. What I might do, just for fun, is keep a record of all Game 7's and record what percentage of the time the home team wins. That would be very interesting. Last edited by jg2977; 07-24-2007 at 04:11 PM.

07-25-2007, 11:45 AM	#6
OldFatGuy All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Northern Va., Loudoun County Posts: 1,902	Personally, rather than user adjusted, I would like to see it adjusted in game based on attendance. In other words, 100% attendance means 100% home field advantage, 50% attendance, means 50% home field advantage. That way you should get "better" home field advantage in the playoffs as suggested by the poster. Just my . EDIT: Or better yet, since all teams should have "some" HFA, default at 50% HFA and the final 50% based on attendance, IE 50% attendance means 75% of HFA. Last edited by OldFatGuy; 07-25-2007 at 11:51 AM.

07-25-2007, 08:10 AM	#5
zukes All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London, Ont. Canada Posts: 1,106	I could have sworn there was a place to adjust that, but maybe it's just a yes or no question about home field advantage that defaults to yes.

07-25-2007, 02:18 PM	#7
Burgandy Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 85	http://www.straightdope.com/columns/070622.html "A study of baseball HFA from 1901 to 2002 published in the Baseball Research Journal found "the average seasonal difference between a team's home winning percentage and its road winning percentage was .082." (In other words, an average team's home record is .541 and its away record is .459.)" Over the average 162 game season, home-field advantage accounts for approximately 6.6 wins above the average 81-81 record. If you try breaking that sample size down to a measly 7 games, you're talking about less than a 0.3 win difference from the average 3.5-3.5 record. I don't think that advantage is something you're going to see with the naked eye without looking at a little bit larger history. "As baseball-stat guru Bill James has pointed out, an undefeated team has an HFA of zip." --this is the way I look at it. Any historical stats that show a greater W/L% for the home team in the playoffs also include the fact that before the last 3 years, the team that earned home-field had a better record overall, and may well have just been a superior team, talent-wise. In other words, it's usually the better teams that have won the HFA in the playoffs. So of course they're should have a better record.. at home AND on the road. IMO, the HFA in baseball doesn't come from crowd noise/size, etc. It comes from playing 81 games in one place and knowing the ballpark, how the ball bounces in the corners, the best places to pick up the ball off the bat, etc, etc. It's not like football where offenses need to be able to hear the snap count and a lot of crowd noise can create penalties or slow their jumps. This is ONLY my opinion.

07-29-2007, 03:10 PM	#8
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	I mostly agree with Burgandy. I do think that increased crowd noise can pump up the adrenaline and might result in some heroics. On the other hands, pumped up adrenaline can also result in overanxiousness (choking), and some teams (the 1986 Mets, for example) claimed that they got more pumped from wanting to silence the enemy crowds cheering against them. As for the % of attendence suggestion, I like it in theory, and it would work well in my leagues (where the ballparks have all been edited), but in real life baseball it would seriously hurt teams that play in monster stadiums, as Cleveland used to. (I think that would also apply to Detroit in the 60s and 70s, and to the second Washington Senators.) And teams in banboxes would get an unjustified boost.