Basketball WinShares

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:27 PM

I've been perusing the pages at www.basketball-reference.com a lot of late with my Mavs sidelined and a bit of time at hand. I'm mighty impressed with the work of Jason Kubatko, the site creator, and developer of basketball WinShares. Kubatko explains how they are formulated here......

http://www.courtsidetimes.net/articles/391/

NBA statistical tracking has allowed WinShares to be calculated for every season since 1977. As the article linked above shows, there is one hell of a corellation between the NBA MVP and the WinShares MVP. I guess in basketball it is much more obvious for the voters who is the dominant player in the game since there are only five to a side.

Another interesting note, there are only four players in the NBA Hall of Fame, in the 30 seasons tracked by WinShares, who have totaled less than 300 career WinShares. That milestone is where an athlete becomes a serious HOF candidate for this observer in both baseball and basketball. Who are these four fellas, you ask?

Code:

Alex English    295
James Worthy    254
Joe Dumars      244
Isiah Thomas    243

'Tis good to be a Bad Boy.

magnet · 05-13-2007, 07:34 PM

Yeah, I really like the WinShares portion of that site. I've posted elsewhere how I wrote that site off as pointless a couple of years ago, but they have really turned it around.

What I liked was the HoF probability score. It is based completely on what the voters have voted for in the past.

http://basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

jbergey22 · 05-13-2007, 07:37 PM

Interesting stuff! It is very surprsing how often the voters seem to get this right in the NBA, which IMO seems like a lot more competition every year than MLB or NFL. It is no surprise to me that the baseball voters consistently mess up.

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by magnet

Yeah, I really like the WinShares portion of that site. I've posted elsewhere how I wrote that site off as pointless a couple of years ago, but they have really turned it around.

What I liked was the HoF probability score. It is based completely on what the voters have voted for in the past.

http://basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

I've never looked once at that page. Very cool.

magnet · 05-13-2007, 07:39 PM

According to the HoF probability, Jo Jo White is the biggest HoF snub (highest rated player not in the HoF that is currently eligible)

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:39 PM

Grant Hill is calculated to have a 76.25% chance of induction. I'd put his odds far lower. A healthy Grant Hill would have been a shoo-in.

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by magnet

According to the HoF probability, Jo Jo White is the biggest HoF snub (highest rated player not in the HoF that is currently eligible)

Good call by the voters, IMO.

jbergey22 · 05-13-2007, 07:43 PM

The Hall of Fame page looks pretty accurate though I strongly disagree that Glenn Robinson or Steve Francis would be more likely to make the HOF at this point over Steve Nash. I wouldnt say that Nash is a sure thing at this point but 2 MVP's leapfrogs them above them two guys above that have no chance.

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The Hall of Fame page looks pretty accurate though I strongly disagree that Glenn Robinson or Steve Francis would be more likely to make the HOF at this point over Steve Nash. I wouldnt say that Nash is a sure thing at this point but 2 MVP's leapfrogs them above them two guys above that have no chance.

I think Nash is a lock whether he ever plays another game. WinShares would put him in the deserving category with another two quality seasons. I think that is entirely probable.

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:49 PM

Who is the NBA version of Bert Blyleven/Ron Santo? I'd submit Artis Gilmore for inclusion at the top of that list.

Strange that a dominant post player would be outside looking in. I guess it's the lack of a ring.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...gilmoar01.html

Edit: Nope, that's not it. Gilmore won a title in the ABA with the 74-75 Kentucky Colonels.

darkhorse · 05-13-2007, 07:53 PM

dola,

And we don't have WinShares for Gilmore's first two seasons, where he absolutely slayed. His career total would probably be 80-90 WinShares higher with the addition of those two years. The man should be a mortal lock. But, I've said the same, many times, about Blyleven.

jbergey22 · 05-13-2007, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

dola,

And we don't have WinShares for Gilmore's first two seasons, where he absolutely slayed. His career total would probably be 80-90 WinShares higher with the addition of those two years. The man should be a mortal lock. But, I've said the same, many times, about Blyleven.

The voters must be over looking his ABA numbers for some reason. He was just an animal in his 6 seasons there. I think this is a very good comparison. The numbers are there why hes not getting more votes is beyond me.

I notice Reggie Miller is very low on this last even though I have a strong feeling he will get in. He was thought of as better than he really was.

darkhorse · 05-14-2007, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I notice Reggie Miller is very low on this last even though I have a strong feeling he will get in. He was thought of as better than he really was.

I'd say Reggie Miller got more out of his talent than but a few. Not a strong defender, passer, or rebounder, just that pure, sweet shot. One of the most consistent performers the game has ever seen. Never an MVP quality season, just excellent year after excellent year, for a decade and a half. He should be a lock.

darkhorse · 05-14-2007, 04:01 PM

The All-NBA teams were announced today and the first team is comprised exclusively of Western Conference players. Let's see how WinShares rates the selections.

Code:

Steve Nash             37 (3rd)
Kobe Bryant            40 (2nd)
Tim Duncan             35 
Dirk Nowitzki          51 (1st)
Amare Stoudemire       34

WinShares would have dropped Duncan and Stoudemire and replaced them with LeBron James (38, 3rd overall) and Shawn Marion (36, 5th overall). But, there's a win difference between the selections. Differences that small are negligible. Once again, the voters have done an excellent job.

Nash and Stoudemire are the first teammates to make the first team since Kobe and Shaq in the 2003-2004 season.

darkhorse · 05-14-2007, 04:09 PM

Dayam, this was Duncan's ninth first team selection. Most of any active player. More than Shaq. Wow!

LeBron James, the top vote-getter for last year's team dropped to the second team.

Code:

LeBron James      38
Gilbert Arenas    33
Tracy McGrady     23  (McGrady missed 11 games and his performance dipped.)
Yao Ming          19  (Ming played in only 48 games. His selection is a joke.)
Chris Bosh        30  (Bosh missed 13 games. Hell of a season.)

darkhorse · 05-14-2007, 04:14 PM

Third team selections.

Code:

Dwyane Wade         25  (Wade played in only 51 games.)
Chauncey Billups    32  (Billups missed 12 games.)
Kevin Garnett       30      
Carmelo Anthony     21  (Carmelo missed 17 games.)
Dwight Howard       27

Spielman · 05-15-2007, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Another interesting note, there are only four players in the NBA Hall of Fame, in the 30 seasons tracked by WinShares, who have totaled less than 300 career WinShares. That milestone is where an athlete becomes a serious HOF candidate for this observer in both baseball and basketball. Who are these four fellas, you ask?

Code:

Alex English    295
James Worthy    254
Joe Dumars      244
Isiah Thomas    243

'Tis good to be a Bad Boy.

But not, apparently, to be the baddest of the Bad Boys.
Bill Laimbeer - 309 win shares and lacking in any sort of asterisk to indicate HOF membership.

jbergey22 · 05-15-2007, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I'd say Reggie Miller got more out of his talent than but a few. Not a strong defender, passer, or rebounder, just that pure, sweet shot. One of the most consistent performers the game has ever seen. Never an MVP quality season, just excellent year after excellent year, for a decade and a half. He should be a lock.

If you are looking for over rated 1 dimensional players that never won a title than yes you are right. Was only in the top 10 one time in the NBA as a scorer. If he is a lock a lot more players are going to be able to make strong cases in the future that arent already in.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...millere01.html

OmahaBaseball · 05-15-2007, 01:32 PM

I am surprised to see Stockton's % chance of getting into the HoF being as low as it is. I would have guessed much higher.

darkhorse · 05-16-2007, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

1. If you are looking for over rated 1 dimensional players that never won a title than yes you are right.

2. Was only in the top 10 one time in the NBA as a scorer. If he is a lock a lot more players are going to be able to make strong cases in the future that arent already in.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...millere01.html

1. Nah, I'm looking for players who had careers that were easily of HOF caliber. Karl Malone and John Stockton are inner circle HOF'ers and ringless. Big whoop.

2. The list of players outside the HOF with 9 30+ WinShares seasons won't be lengthy. Now, if we're tallking overrated, Isiah Thomas would be a worthy subject. And, he has two rings. 'Tis good to have excellent teammates.

05-13-2007, 07:27 PM	#1
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Basketball WinShares I've been perusing the pages at www.basketball-reference.com a lot of late with my Mavs sidelined and a bit of time at hand. I'm mighty impressed with the work of Jason Kubatko, the site creator, and developer of basketball WinShares. Kubatko explains how they are formulated here...... http://www.courtsidetimes.net/articles/391/ NBA statistical tracking has allowed WinShares to be calculated for every season since 1977. As the article linked above shows, there is one hell of a corellation between the NBA MVP and the WinShares MVP. I guess in basketball it is much more obvious for the voters who is the dominant player in the game since there are only five to a side. Another interesting note, there are only four players in the NBA Hall of Fame, in the 30 seasons tracked by WinShares, who have totaled less than 300 career WinShares. That milestone is where an athlete becomes a serious HOF candidate for this observer in both baseball and basketball. Who are these four fellas, you ask? Code: Alex English 295 James Worthy 254 Joe Dumars 244 Isiah Thomas 243 'Tis good to be a Bad Boy. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan." Last edited by darkhorse; 05-13-2007 at 07:30 PM.

05-13-2007, 07:39 PM	#6
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Grant Hill is calculated to have a 76.25% chance of induction. I'd put his odds far lower. A healthy Grant Hill would have been a shoo-in. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-13-2007, 07:49 PM	#10
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Who is the NBA version of Bert Blyleven/Ron Santo? I'd submit Artis Gilmore for inclusion at the top of that list. Strange that a dominant post player would be outside looking in. I guess it's the lack of a ring. http://www.basketball-reference.com/...gilmoar01.html Edit: Nope, that's not it. Gilmore won a title in the ABA with the 74-75 Kentucky Colonels. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan." Last edited by darkhorse; 05-13-2007 at 07:51 PM.

05-13-2007, 07:53 PM	#11
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	dola, And we don't have WinShares for Gilmore's first two seasons, where he absolutely slayed. His career total would probably be 80-90 WinShares higher with the addition of those two years. The man should be a mortal lock. But, I've said the same, many times, about Blyleven. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-14-2007, 04:01 PM	#14
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	The All-NBA teams were announced today and the first team is comprised exclusively of Western Conference players. Let's see how WinShares rates the selections. Code: Steve Nash 37 (3rd) Kobe Bryant 40 (2nd) Tim Duncan 35 Dirk Nowitzki 51 (1st) Amare Stoudemire 34 WinShares would have dropped Duncan and Stoudemire and replaced them with LeBron James (38, 3rd overall) and Shawn Marion (36, 5th overall). But, there's a win difference between the selections. Differences that small are negligible. Once again, the voters have done an excellent job. Nash and Stoudemire are the first teammates to make the first team since Kobe and Shaq in the 2003-2004 season. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan." Last edited by darkhorse; 05-14-2007 at 04:02 PM.

05-13-2007, 07:34 PM	#2
magnet Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 5,029	Yeah, I really like the WinShares portion of that site. I've posted elsewhere how I wrote that site off as pointless a couple of years ago, but they have really turned it around. What I liked was the HoF probability score. It is based completely on what the voters have voted for in the past. http://basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

05-13-2007, 07:37 PM	#3
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,481	Interesting stuff! It is very surprsing how often the voters seem to get this right in the NBA, which IMO seems like a lot more competition every year than MLB or NFL. It is no surprise to me that the baseball voters consistently mess up.

05-13-2007, 07:43 PM	#8
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,481	The Hall of Fame page looks pretty accurate though I strongly disagree that Glenn Robinson or Steve Francis would be more likely to make the HOF at this point over Steve Nash. I wouldnt say that Nash is a sure thing at this point but 2 MVP's leapfrogs them above them two guys above that have no chance.

05-14-2007, 04:09 PM	#15
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Dayam, this was Duncan's ninth first team selection. Most of any active player. More than Shaq. Wow! LeBron James, the top vote-getter for last year's team dropped to the second team. Code: LeBron James 38 Gilbert Arenas 33 Tracy McGrady 23 (McGrady missed 11 games and his performance dipped.) Yao Ming 19 (Ming played in only 48 games. His selection is a joke.) Chris Bosh 30 (Bosh missed 13 games. Hell of a season.) __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-14-2007, 04:14 PM	#16
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Third team selections. Code: Dwyane Wade 25 (Wade played in only 51 games.) Chauncey Billups 32 (Billups missed 12 games.) Kevin Garnett 30 Carmelo Anthony 21 (Carmelo missed 17 games.) Dwight Howard 27 __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-15-2007, 01:32 PM	#19
OmahaBaseball Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Home of the College World Series! Posts: 3,920	I am surprised to see Stockton's % chance of getting into the HoF being as low as it is. I would have guessed much higher. __________________ Life is Good!